The Iraqi government fears that its relationship with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries could enter a phase of “isolation,” similar to what occurred after Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990.
As cross-border attacks carried out by Iraqi armed factions linked to Iran escalate, signs of a crisis are emerging between Baghdad and Gulf capitals, which are also being targeted by missile attacks from Iran.
On March 25, GCC countries and Jordan issued a statement calling on the Iraqi government to take action against attacks launched by pro-Iran factions from Iraqi territory.
The countries that signed the statement threatened “escalation” and noted that their appeal to the Iraqi government comes “in order to preserve fraternal relations.”
The faction attacks have placed the Iraqi government— which has worked in recent years to restore its relations with its Arab surroundings— in a difficult position, potentially complicating Baghdad’s diplomacy as it seeks to return to what is referred to as the “Arab fold.”
According to an Iraqi diplomatic source who spoke to Alhurra, signals have reached Baghdad from Saudi Arabia indicating tighter measures against Iraqis wishing to enter the kingdom, and reduced engagement due to what was described as the “extensive influence of armed factions within state institutions.”
The Saudi mission left Baghdad on March 17, after a night in which the Al-Rashid Hotel, where it was based, was targeted by a drone.
Saudi international relations researcher Salman Al-Ansari told Alhurra: “The transformation of Iraqi territory into a platform for reckless attacks against Gulf states is absolutely unacceptable. Unless this situation is addressed quickly, it could lead to a deterioration in Iraqi-Gulf relations for many years.”
Al-Ansari confirmed the Iraqi diplomatic source’s information regarding Riyadh’s “anger” over developments in Iraq. He said: “Riyadh feels deep anger over the state of security disorder in Iraq, because the persistence of uncontrolled weapons and the erosion of state authority do not harm Iraq alone, but threaten the security of the entire region.”
Since the beginning of the war on Iran on February 28, the region has witnessed a wave of drone and missile attacks targeting energy facilities, airports, and civilian infrastructure in several Gulf countries and Jordan.
Operations against Gulf states were carried out by a group called “Saraya Awliya al-Dam (Blood Guardians),” which used drones launched from provinces in southern Iraq, targeting vital facilities in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.
These operations have placed the Iraqi government in a complex equation between external pressures and internal balances. While it officially condemns the attacks and affirms its rejection of using Iraqi territory to target neighboring countries, it faces practical challenges in controlling armed factions.
Zaidoun Al-Kinani, a former lecturer at Georgetown University in Qatar, said: “I do not believe at all that this is the beginning of a rupture. It is not in the interest of Gulf states nor Iraq for that to happen, especially after the development of relations in recent years.”
Al-Kinani, who also heads the Arab Perspectives Institute, believes that the statement issued by GCC countries and Jordan is a natural position and was necessary.
Iraq and the Gulf have experienced a long rupture lasting about fifteen years. The invasion of Kuwait by Saddam Hussein’s regime in 1990 marked a sharp turning point in relations between Iraq and Gulf states.
The deterioration was not limited to politics; it included the freezing of economic and diplomatic relations, accompanied by broad international isolation imposed on Iraq through UN Security Council resolutions. During that period, Gulf states aligned with the international coalition that worked to expel Iraqi forces from Kuwait, deepening the rift between Baghdad and its Gulf surroundings for years to come.
After 2003, when Saddam Hussein’s regime fell, relations began to take a different path marked by gradual attempts to rebuild trust and reopen channels of communication. Although the early years saw tensions linked to the nature of Iraq’s new political system and regional concerns, the later phase showed clear signs of mutual openness.
Adel Marzouk, editor-in-chief of the Gulf House for Studies and Publishing, said: “Gulf states recognize that returning to a policy of isolating Iraq is not feasible given regional transformations. Such a policy could lead to something worse.”
He added: “The six-party statement is a measured pressure message, aimed at pushing the Iraqi government to prove that it holds the authority of the state, to control the behavior of some undisciplined Popular Mobilization factions that maintain organic ties with Iran.”
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani is attempting to send positive signals to Gulf states through calls with their leaders or via the foreign ministry. But on the ground, he faces a major challenge as drones fill Iraqi skies.
According to the diplomatic source and a political source within the Shiite Coordination Framework who spoke to Alhurra, “strong strikes were carried out against Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait from Iraqi territory, but they were not announced.”
In the last two meetings of the Shiite Coordination Framework, the issue of “threatening” Gulf states from Iraq was raised. According to the source, al-Sudani affirmed that “drones targeting the Gulf threaten Iraq’s interests and risk creating a crisis that could turn into isolation.”
Mustafa Saadoon
Mustafa Saadoon is an Iraqi journalist who has worked for several international and Arab media organizations. He covers politics and human rights.
