The third shipment of Iraqi fuel oil has arrived at the Baniyas refinery in Syria via the Al-Tanf border crossing, as part of an agreement aimed at transporting Iraqi oil overland for refining and later export to global markets. The shipment included 180 tankers.
This step comes as Iraq seeks to secure alternative routes to its southern export outlet, particularly as it is among the producers most vulnerable to any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. The Iraqi State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO) has signed contracts to transport approximately 650,000 metric tons of fuel oil monthly through Syria between April and June, along a route that has not been used for decades.
The agreement reflects Iraq’s urgent need to export, as its oil exports have declined by roughly three-quarters, from more than 3.3 million barrels per day to less than one million barrels. Iraqi government revenues depend on oil by as much as 90 percent.
However, energy expert Asim Jihad, a former spokesperson for Iraq’s Ministry of Oil, told Alhurra that the current Syrian route is merely an “emergency solution imposed by circumstances” within a framework of “crisis management,” rather than a genuine strategic alternative. He attributed this assessment to the fact that overland transport is more costly and less efficient than pipelines or shipping through Gulf ports, and cannot compensate for Iraq’s large export capacity.
He added, “This route is not without potential strategic dimensions in the long term.”
Baghdad and Damascus are currently working to test the scalability of the route, and the oil and energy ministers of both countries have discussed possibilities including rehabilitating oil pipelines and supplying gas. However, transforming the route from temporary tanker shipments into a stable regional energy infrastructure requires massive investments and a more stable political and security environment.
For its part, the Syrian Ministry of Energy confirmed that the agreement would restore Syria’s historic role as a regional transit corridor for energy between the Gulf states and Europe. The Baniyas refinery is expected to receive about 500,000 metric tons of fuel oil monthly. According to Safwan Sheikh Ahmad of the Syrian Petroleum Company, the current phase is a “trial period” that may pave the way for longer-term contracts.
Syrian economic expert Abdel Moneim Halabi told Alhurra that the agreement carries two main benefits for Syria, in addition to transit fees. The first benefit lies in securing “good quantities of fuel for the Syrian market” at relatively lower prices, which would ease pressure on liquidity and public spending allocated to energy, especially given the inability of domestic production to meet demand. The second benefit is that this step serves as a “test of Syria’s capability” and proof of the readiness of the Baniyas refinery and transport and storage networks, thereby enhancing its future marketing position.
However, security and logistical challenges remain. Halabi links the sustainability of the agreement to Syria’s ability to develop its technical infrastructure and road networks while maintaining neutrality. These concerns come in light of Damascus’s announcement in late March that its bases near the Iraqi border had been targeted by drone attacks launched from Iraq.
Halabi also does not conceal his concern that the agreement could generate “regional sensitivities and concerns among some regional parties regarding Syrian-Iraqi cooperation.”
Within this equation, as Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa has emphasized that his country will remain outside the war unless attacked, any cross-border economic project becomes contingent on Syria’s ability to benefit from its role without being drawn into an additional arena of conflict.
The article is a translation of the original Arabic.
