The ink on the ceasefire was barely dry when Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz again.
Less than 24 hours after the US and Iran announced a two-week truce, Iranian naval forces ordered that tanker traffic through the world’s most critical oil chokepoint be suspended, citing Israeli strikes on Lebanon that Washington insists aren’t covered by the deal. By Thursday morning, alternative routes were being broadcast to vessels. The Islamabad talks haven’t begun. The ceasefire is already fraying
Friday’s talks in Islamabad are supposed to end a 40-day war. But the starting premise is already in dispute, and it is not only about nuclear enrichment or sanctions relief. It’s Lebanon: Iran says the ceasefire covers it, the US says it doesn’t, and Israel is bombing it anyway. Until that gap closes, the talks could be over before they formally begin.
But Lebanon is only one of the problems nobody is saying out loud.
Problem One: The Ceasefire Has Already Been Violated
Israel, which declared the deal did not cover Lebanon, launched its most intense bombardment of the country since the war began on Wednesday, striking over 100 targets in a single day. At least 203 people were killed, and more than 1,000 were wounded. Lebanon’s president called it a “massacre.” Iran’s delegation chief, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said three clauses of Tehran’s ceasefire framework had been “openly and clearly violated,” a halt in Lebanon, a prohibition on airspace violations, and recognition of Iran’s right to nuclear enrichment.
A senior White House official pushed back when reached by MBN. “Look, ceasefires are never clean. The president was clear from the start: the deal covers the Iran theater, not Lebanon. VP JD Vance is going into Islamabad with one job: see if they’re serious. But we’re not going to restrain Israel over strikes on Hezbollah. That was never part of the bargain, and it’s not going to become one now.”
Problem Two: Lebanon Is a Trap with No Exit
Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif explicitly stated the ceasefire covered Lebanon: “everywhere,” he said. Iran’s delegation is arriving on that basis. But Vance said publicly before departing: “I think the Iranians thought the ceasefire included Lebanon, and it just didn’t. We never made that promise.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been equally blunt: Israel will strike Hezbollah “wherever necessary.”
Ghalibaf stated Lebanon and the “Resistance Axis” are “an inseparable part of the ceasefire,” citing Sharif’s own words. “There is no room for denial and backtracking,” he said. Pezeshkian echoed the warning on X.
A State Department diplomat on the Iran file, speaking to MBN on condition of anonymity, acknowledged the problem was foreseeable. “The ceasefire’s scope, whether it includes Lebanon, was not agreed in writing, and that ambiguity is now causing exactly the problem we warned about. Our job is to see if we can narrow that gap in 15 days. I am not optimistic, but the alternative is an open-ended war. So, we go. We listen. And we do not sign anything that locks us into a framework the IRGC can blow up the next morning.”
France, the UK, and Spain have all publicly called for the ceasefire to extend to Lebanon. Hezbollah launched strikes on northern Israel on Thursday. Israel bombed Lebanon again.
On Thursday, Trump said he had spoken to Netanyahu directly. “I spoke with Bibi, and he’s going to low-key it. I just think we must be sort of a little more low-key,” the president said. Vance had signaled the same on Wednesday, telling reporters Israel may “check themselves a little bit” on Lebanon. But Trump made the ask while simultaneously agreeing with Netanyahu that Lebanon was never part of the ceasefire deal. He is managing both positions at once. Whether that is held in Islamabad is the question nobody can answer.
Problem Three: The Man Who Approved This Deal Has Never Appeared in Public
Nearly every outlet has focused on who is flying to Islamabad. Almost none have examined who isn’t: Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who approved this ceasefire but has not made a single public appearance since taking power, according to The New York Times.
His only communication to the world came on March 13. He vowed revenge, called the Strait of Hormuz a lever that “must remain in use,” and threatened to open new fronts where “the enemy has little experience.”
A senior European intelligence officer, speaking to MBN on condition of anonymity, was direct. “He approved this ceasefire. He has also not appeared publicly since his father’s death. That is not normal. A leader who cannot show his face cannot enforce a deal. The United States needs to decide: is this a real ceasefire or a diplomatic fiction? Because from our vantage point, the fiction is winning.”
Problem Four: The IRGC Is Running the War but Not the Talks
Iran’s military operations for 40 days, including the mining of the Strait, strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure, and drone campaigns against UAE and Bahraini facilities, have all been run by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The delegation arriving in Islamabad contains no confirmed IRGC representation. Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, is a former IRGC commander, the closest link. Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, is a career diplomat.
The European intelligence officer put it plainly. “Araghchi could sign a beautiful framework in Islamabad on Saturday, and by Sunday morning, IRGC naval forces in Bandar Abbas could sink a tanker and blame ‘miscommunication.’ The JCPOA collapsed for exactly this reason: the diplomats were never in operational command. Until the supreme leader puts his authority behind a ceasefire enforcement mechanism, this is not a negotiation. It is a theatrical pause.”
Problem Five: The Gulf Is Already Moving On
A former Kuwaiti diplomat with close ties to Gulf foreign ministries, speaking to MBN on condition of anonymity, framed the mood plainly. “My Gulf colleagues are watching this with a feeling we know too well: a war fought from our soil, a ceasefire that doesn’t stop fighting, and no one asking us what we think. Kuwait learned in 1990 that you cannot outsource your security to a single patron. Now Saudi Arabia is buying French air defense, the UAE is talking to Australia, and Qatar is reviewing the basing agreement for Al Udeid. The message from the Gulf to Washington is quiet but unmistakable: you started this war. Do not assume we will pay for it twice.”
Pakistan has locked down its capital, declared a public holiday, and staked its diplomatic credibility on this weekend. Saturday morning, delegations will sit in separate rooms at the Serena Hotel while Pakistani officials walk between them carrying messages.
The ceasefire is less than 48 hours old. Already contested. Already fraying. The talks haven’t started. The problems are visible to anyone looking past the dateline.
“The United States needs to decide,” the European intelligence officer told MBN. “Is this a real ceasefire or diplomatic fiction? Because from our vantage point, the fiction is winning.”
Joe Kawly
Joe Kawly is Washington Bureau Chief for MBN and a global affairs journalist with more than twenty years covering U.S. foreign policy and Middle East politics.
A CNN Journalism Fellow and Georgetown University graduate, he reports from Washington at the intersection of power and diplomacy, explaining how decisions made in the U.S. capital shape events across the Arab world.
