China’s Foreign Ministry welcomed the ceasefire between Iran, Israel and the United States this week. Then it added something extra: Beijing, a spokesperson said, had made its own efforts toward what it called lasting peace in the Middle East.
The statement followed President Donald Trump’s comment to AFP that he believes China got Iran to negotiate. Beijing did not dispute it.
Chinese diplomacy during the conflict has been unusually active. Foreign Minister Wang Yi held more than two dozen calls in six weeks as Beijing worked to contain the fighting and keep energy flows intact.
The push highlights both the promise and the limits of China’s Middle East diplomacy. Beijing sought to prevent the war from spiraling to protect vital energy supplies, shield its growing Gulf investments, and burnish its image as a responsible global power.
Beijing showed its economic influence can bring Tehran to the table. Whether that is enough to secure a lasting peace, without the security commitments Beijing has long refused to make, is the harder test.
Roughly half of China’s crude imports come from the Middle East, much of it transiting the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. That dependence leaves Beijing both exposed to disruption and reluctant to see any single actor push the conflict too far.
The economic effects were already becoming apparent. Disruptions were feeding into China’s economy, from energy costs to supply chains tied to petrochemicals and fertilizers.
“China’s diplomats have been extremely focused on trying to restrain escalation,” said Matthew Johnson of the Jamestown Foundation by email. “That’s not a bluff or cover. There are real economic concerns.”
Yet the same ties that expose Chinese commerce also give it some leverage, particularly with Iran.
China remains Iran’s most important economic partner, continuing to purchase discounted crude even under sanctions.
The relationship has long been seen as asymmetric. Tehran needs Beijing more than the reverse. But the war has shown how that imbalance can translate into influence. A report in the New York Times quoting Iranian officials as saying China applied pressure at the 11th hour, as Trump’s deadline loomed, to accept a ceasefire and prevent escalation that would threaten its core interests.
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China’s influence over Iran has limits. As the China Tracker has shown, Beijing prefers commercial relationships over military ones and has been reluctant to offer security guarantees. But the relationship is not purely transactional either. The two share a broader, if loosely defined, alignment in seeking to constrain U.S. dominance in the region. Iran’s capacity to project power through proxies, missile forces and control over maritime chokepoints has indirect strategic value for Beijing by tying up American resources, even as it generates instability.
Outcomes that leave Iran degraded, in that sense, would be a negative for China, Johnson said.
Other Beijing Buddies
Iran, however, is only part of the picture.
As China Tracker has noted, Beijing’s economic ties to Gulf states have expanded rapidly over the past two decades, as the country favors commercial ties to security entanglements. China is now a major investor in countries including Iraq and Saudi Arabia through its Belt and Road Initiative, while Chinese technologies underpin a growing share of regional commerce.
Beijing is also seeking to shape how its role is perceived beyond the region.
“China was interested in playing a role to show that it can be a major global mediator, which adds to its image as a responsible world power,” said Joshua Kurlantzick, senior fellow for Southeast Asia and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations.
It is particularly interested in being seen by its neighbors as having played a role in averting an energy crisis that would be “a disaster for everyone in Asia,” he said.
One final benefit may also be in play. The Trump administration could quietly view China’s behind-the-scenes role in a war that has strained U.S. resources and attention as a gesture of goodwill, one that could ease tensions ahead of the Trump-Xi summit next month.
That is, of course, if the ceasefire holds.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Middle East Broadcasting Networks.
Jim Snyder
Jim Snyder is a journalist and former investigative editor at Radio Free Asia.
