As Washington intensifies pressure on Hezbollah and its allies in Lebanon, a new round of U.S. sanctions targeting two figures close to Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri is fueling speculation among analysts and policymakers that the campaign may be moving closer to the veteran Shiite leader himself — and potentially to members of his family and financial network.
The broader objective of the current U.S. administration, according to Hanin Ghaddar, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, is to “separate Berri from Hezbollah.”
Ghaddar participated months ago in a congressional hearing where Berri’s name surfaced repeatedly. During the session, Representative Darrell Issa, the American Republican congressman of Lebanese descent from California, asked: “Isn’t it time to impose sanctions on Berri?”
Issa and Representative Darin LaHood, another Republican lawmaker of Lebanese descent, issued a statement in October 2024 calling on the Biden administration to impose direct sanctions on Berri, accusing him of obstructing the election of a Lebanese president and destabilizing the country in favor of Hezbollah.
In Washington, Berri is widely viewed as a strategic ally of Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Lebanese militia and political movement designated by the United States as a terrorist organization. Yet some policymakers still see him as a potential interlocutor who could help loosen the Lebanese Shiite community’s ties to Iran. Others argue that Berri continues to play a negative role and remains closely aligned with Tehran’s regional agenda.
Part of the ambiguity surrounding Berri stems from his cautious political style. He rarely appears in the media, and contradictory statements are often attributed to him through political sources in the Lebanese press.
A diplomatic cable published by WikiLeaks later revealed that during the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, Berri privately told the then-U.S. ambassador to Lebanon, Jeffrey Feltman, that the conflict represented an opportunity to weaken Hezbollah. According to the cable, Berri described Israeli strikes against the group as “like honey — a little is beneficial, but too much is harmful.”
Berri’s office later dismissed the reports, saying the leaked remarks were an attempt to “slip poison into the honey.”
In a statement at the time, his office insisted that the Amal Movement “was and will remain a full and essential partner in the resistance, especially Hezbollah.”
Years later, in 2020, the Treasury Department sanctioned Ali Hassan Khalil, Lebanon’s former finance minister and one of Berri’s closest political allies, on accusations of corruption and support for Hezbollah.
But analysts say the latest sanctions appear more personal.
The Treasury Department last week designated two figures widely considered to be among Berri’s closest associates, as debate intensifies in Lebanon and across the region over possible direct negotiations between Lebanon and Israel.
According to the Treasury statement, the two men contributed to “obstructing peace negotiations” and undermining efforts to disarm Hezbollah.
One of them, Ahmad Baalbaki, is a senior security official closely associated with Berri and often described by Lebanese political observers as his “right-hand man.” The second, Ali Ahmad Safawi, is an Amal military official and member of the movement’s southern regional leadership.
The Treasury Department accused Safawi of coordinating Amal fighters alongside Hezbollah in attacks against Israel.
The allegation is particularly sensitive because Amal was officially among the militias that surrendered their weapons after Lebanon’s civil war ended in 1990. Hezbollah has long been regarded as the only Lebanese faction permitted to retain its arsenal after the war.
Ghaddar said the administration’s sanctions strategy relies more on pressure than incentives. The objective, she argued, is not to isolate Berri entirely, but to alter his behavior while preserving him as a potential Shiite partner in a post-Hezbollah political order.
If sanctions on Berri’s political allies succeed in changing his behavior, she said, the pressure campaign could stop there. But if he continues to obstruct what she described as Lebanon’s political transition away from Hezbollah’s dominance, future sanctions could target members of his family or financial assets abroad.
The broader aim, she said, is to push Lebanon toward a state capable of exercising sovereignty over its territory and preventing it from being used as a platform for Iranian attacks against Israel.
Put differently, Ghaddar said the sanctions are intended to signal to Berri that the cost of supporting Hezbollah now outweighs any political benefits he may derive from maintaining the alliance.
Yet sanctioning Berri himself could also create a dilemma for Washington.
The Amal Movement and Hezbollah together dominate Shiite political representation in Lebanon’s parliament, government and state institutions. Finding a credible Shiite alternative outside the alliance remains extremely difficult under current conditions, according to Ali Mourad, a Lebanese political activist and university professor who ran against both Amal and Hezbollah in the last parliamentary elections.
Mourad said sectarian communities in Lebanon often rally around traditional leaders when they perceive an existential threat, as other sects have done in the past. But he argued that such an outcome is not inevitable within the Shiite community.
The aftermath of the war and the destruction brought to Shiite areas by Hezbollah, he said, could generate new political dynamics and eventually open space for a third alternative beyond Amal and Hezbollah.
Even so, Mourad said he doubted Berri would ultimately distance himself from Hezbollah. Such a move, he warned, could risk a confrontation between Amal and Hezbollah similar to the violent clashes that erupted between the two Shiite factions during the late 1980s civil war period.
Adapted and translated from the original Arabic.
Rami Al Amine
Rami Al-Amin is a Lebanese writer and correspondent for MBN covering political, social and cultural developments across the Middle East. He produces and presents the satirical critique segment Bitter Sweet, which examines current events through a critical lens. He holds a master’s degree in Islamic-Christian Relations from Saint Joseph University in Beirut. He is the author of Ya Ali, We Are No Longer the People of the South, a political booklet on Hezbollah, and The Two Mourners, a book on the history of Beirut’s Martyrs’ Statue.
