The Iraqi government’s effort to bring all weapons under state control represents the first major test for the country’s new administration, tackling an issue that previous governments failed to resolve. But experts and former U.S. diplomats say the initiative faces significant obstacles, chief among them Iran’s efforts to keep allied armed factions outside Baghdad’s authority.
Political and security sources familiar with the matter told Alhurra on Wednesday that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is pressuring Shiite armed groups to reject any process that would require them to surrender their weapons to the Iraqi state.
The development comes a week after the Iran-backed Imam Ali Brigades and Asaib Ahl al-Haq—both designated as terrorist organizations by the United States—announced that they would transfer the administration of their armed brigades within the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) to the Iraqi government.
The issue extends beyond security. Bringing weapons under state control is widely viewed as central to Iraq’s political future. For years, the Iraqi state has operated alongside armed factions possessing independent military and security capabilities, weakening state authority and raising domestic and international concerns about Baghdad’s ability to exercise full sovereignty.
James Jeffrey, the former U.S. ambassador to Iraq from 2010 to 2012, told Alhurra that “the challenges are overwhelming and probably insurmountable. Neither these groups nor Iran want to have them abandon their state within a state and military roles.”
Washington views the issue as an early test for Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, who took office on May 14. The Trump administration has intensified pressure on Baghdad over Iran-backed militias, particularly after the groups carried out hundreds of attacks against U.S. interests and allies during the recent conflict involving Iran.
Since Zaidi assumed office, Washington has expected his government to take clearer steps to dismantle those militias or at least curb their ability to operate outside state authority.
The U.S. State Department did not respond to Alhurra’s request for comment regarding the factions’ announcement and the government’s plan to consolidate weapons under state control.
Earlier, U.S. Special Envoy for Syria and Iraq Tom Barrack welcomed the move, calling it “an important step forward” in a post on X. He also praised “the groups that made the responsible decision to return all their weapons to the Iraqi state, helping strengthen the foundations of order and stability.”
But Alfadhel Ahmed, a researcher specializing in Shiite politics and armed groups, argued that the move does not necessarily reflect a genuine shift within the factions themselves.
“the current process is a response to American pressure threatening financial penalties against Iraq and military strikes against the factions. And definitely not a product of any genuine internal will from these forces,” Ahmed told Alhurra.
He said the success of the disarmament effort depends “on the degree of resolve shown by the Trump administration, and whether the Americans will monitor the implementation in detail.”
In the first practical step toward consolidating weapons under state control, the Iraqi government announced Wednesday that it had received documentation covering the weapons and personnel of the Imam Ali Brigades.
In a statement, the government’s Security Media Cell said Lieutenant General Qais al-Mohammadawi oversaw the handover of all files and records related to the faction’s personnel, weapons, equipment and vehicles.
According to the statement, the move paves the way for completing the integration of the group’s members into state institutions, reorganizing them, and abolishing all other organizational names and structures outside the framework of the Popular Mobilization Forces.
The Iraqi authorities have yet to announce a clear mechanism for integrating members of these factions. Government spokesman Haider al-Aboudi said at a press conference on Wednesday that “bringing weapons under state control will be completed within a specified timeframe,” without providing further details.
Ahmed argued that the government’s biggest challenge extends beyond collecting weapons or records. It also involves dismantling the organizational structures that bind the factions together by dispersing their fighters across separate and distinct units.
“The government faces challenges regarding dismantling the organizational structure binding these factions together by distributing foot soldiers across separate, varied, and randomized units. Short of that, a stronger resurgence of these factions should be expected the moment the United States turns its attention elsewhere,” he said.
Security estimates indicate that Asaib Ahl al-Haq has around 10,000 fighters, many of whom gained combat experience in the war against ISIS after 2014 as well as in urban warfare in Syria.
According to the same estimates, the group’s arsenal includes not only light and medium weapons but also Iranian-made attack and reconnaissance drones that have been used in attacks against military headquarters and bases belonging to the U.S.-led international coalition in Iraq, as well as rocket systems and short- and medium-range launchers.
Unofficial estimates suggest that the Imam Ali Brigades field roughly 8,000 personnel and possess medium-range rocket systems, medium weapons, mortars, heavy machine guns and four-wheel-drive military vehicles equipped with mounted weapons.
Bridget Toomey, a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said Washington should closely monitor the announced disarmament measures to ensure that the weapons have genuinely been transferred to the control of the Iraqi state and its legitimate security institutions.
She added that “if the militias fail to make meaningful progress, the Trump administration should sanction the financial and political enablers in the Iraqi government.”
Adapted and translated from the Arabic.
Ghassan Taqi
A journalist specializing in Iraqi affairs, he has worked with the Middle East Broadcasting Networks (MBN) since 2015. He previously spent several years with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, as well as various Iraqi and Arab media outlets.
