For Arab Gulf countries, the U.S. and Israeli war with Iran began with promises to topple a regime they had considered an enemy for decades.
Three months later, the battered Shia clerical regime in Tehran has not only survived but is emerging from the war more assertive and potentially wealthier.
Tehran launched thousands of drones and missiles at the six Sunni Arab Gulf monarchies that host U.S. and Western military bases. It also throttled the estimated $2.3 trillion hydrocarbon-dependent economies of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman by closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical conduit for these energy-rich countries and a fifth of global oil and gas.
Last week’s Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the U.S. and Iran provides a roadmap to a negotiated settlement between the two. Yet it says nothing about the key security concerns of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), the regional security, political, and economic bloc.
Former officials and analysts see the Gulf nations adopting several new strategies to protect themselves. They are likely adapting to living with Tehran’s growing power, investing more resources in defense while their fragile unity further erodes.
“Gulf states will be disappointed that this war achieved none of the goals that the U.S. administration set out when it began,” said Gregory Gause, a Gulf expert at Washington’s Middle East Institute. “It leaves Iran in a position to threaten them again and to assert some kind of control over the Strait of Hormuz.”
Vessels at the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 18, 2026. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo
Gause said the MOU between the U.S. and Iran does not commit Tehran to free passage through the Strait of Hormuz. “I think that’s going to be very disappointing to the Gulf states,” he said.
Accommodating Iran
Yet Gulf nations appear to be negotiating on their own with Tehran. In an interview published June 24 in the Financial Times, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani said Gulf countries are working on a regional security framework with Iran. “That will hopefully have economic co-operation in the future between all of us — to bring the region back to stability,” he said.
Gawdat Bahgat, a professor of national security affairs at Washington’s National Defense University, said Gulf nations will feel relieved by the prospect of an end to the conflict between the U.S. and Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
“You cannot overlook geography,” he said, referring to the Gulf nations. “They have to deal with Iran because it is not going anywhere.” He added that they will now be forced to adopt a new approach to Tehran, which they had long accused of undermining their security through its militant Shia allies across the Middle East and aggressive military posture in the shared waters of the Persian Gulf.
In contrast to previous crises, Bahgat pointed out, the six GCC members did not downgrade or sever ties with Iran during the war. “Even while Iran attacked them, they kept diplomatic channels open because the day after, they and Iran have no choice but to live together,” he said.
After the January 2016 ransacking of the Saudi Embassy in Tehran, Riyadh cut diplomatic ties with Iran, prompting some other GCC and Arab nations to downgrade diplomatic ties with Tehran. However, Chinese mediation restored diplomatic ties between Tehran and Riyadh in 2023, leading to a degree of broader reconciliation between the nations that represent the Shia and Sunni Muslim worlds.
David Des Roches, a professor at Washington’s Thayer Marshall Institute, sees the Gulf nations facing a “pretty big moment” now that it is clear that their efforts to placate Iran through business and cultural ties did not shield them from its attacks.
Tehran targeted the UAE, he said, despite the emirate’s importance as a major conduit for Iranian international trade and investment.
“Iran is no longer a neighbor. It’s a threat,” Des Roches told MBN, adding that Gulf capitals will now be working diligently to figure out how to address this threat. “Until you feel confident in your ability to confront and defeat the threat, then you accommodate it,” he said.
Hedging
Gause says the Gulf states are likely to maintain a strong security partnership with the U.S. because they have no viable alternative. Yet they will seek resilience by developing new security relationships with a range of countries, including Israel and nations in Europe, East Asia and South Asia. The region is already bolstering military ties to Turkey.
“It’s not going to be an abandonment of the United States, but it’s going to be hedging,” he said.
Pier Camillo Falasca, policy affairs manager at the Euro-Gulf Information Centre think tank in Rome, sees the Gulf countries questioning the old paradigm of seeking protection under a U.S. security umbrella and security guarantees.
“Similar to European nations, they are thinking that the American umbrella is not something that they should take for granted anymore,” he said, referring to the evolving discussions among Gulf nations seeking to diversify defense partnerships in the aftermath of the war. After the Trump administration scaled back its assistance to Ukraine, European nations stepped up to support the country against Russia.
Falasca cited Ukraine as an example of how Gulf nations are exploring new avenues to address their security vulnerabilities. As Gulf nations faced relentless Iranian drone attacks in March and April, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar concluded separate long-term defense agreements with Kyiv. They were eager to access its wartime expertise and technology in countering Iranian drones. During the first four years of the war, Moscow launched more than 55,000 Iranian Shahed drones against Ukraine.
“The Gulf countries understand that collaborating with the country possessing the most advanced drone technology is very important for their future,” he said.
Smoke billows from Jebel Ali port after an Iranian attack, following United States and Israel strikes on Iran, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, March 1, 2026REUTERS/Raghed Waked/File Photo
Bahgat points out that Gulf countries are also deepening defense ties with China, India, Pakistan, Turkey, Britain, France, Germany, and other European nations, as part of their strategy to diversify security cooperation in anticipation of future uncertainty.
“They will try to diversify their security cooperation,” he said. “But they will also deepen security cooperation with the United States. They have no choice.”
Des Roches, a former director of the Gulf and Peninsula affairs in the office of the U.S. Secretary of Defense, agrees. He says that while Gulf countries might attempt to procure weapons or strengthen defense ties with countries in Europe and Asia, none can replace the U.S.
“The only country that actually can deploy quickly to defend national sovereignty is the United States,” he said. “At least in the short term, they’re stuck with that.”
For nearly five decades, Washington has been the primary security provider in the Gulf. It successfully defeated the 1991 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and has protected the region’s hydrocarbon deposits, shipping lanes, and bustling cities.
“At the end of the day, they realize that if it gets to be a real fight, they’re going to have to fight as part of a coalition with the United States,” Des Roches said. “They want to be as compatible as possible. And the best way to do that is to have American equipment.”
A House Divided
Analysts, however, see the Gulf countries as far from united in a single coalition. The fallout from the Iran war has exacerbated the differences among GCC members, pushing them to pursue divergent paths.
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Bahgat says the UAE is likely to double down on its alliance with the U.S. and Israel. Already grappling with worsening relations with the regional giant Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi has established close security ties with Israel, which reportedly deployed anti-missile equipment and troops to protect the country from Iranian attacks.
In contrast, Saudi Arabia has been hesitant to normalize relations with Israel, as evidenced by Riyadh’s ongoing reluctance to join the Abraham Accords. The UAE and Bahrain established formal diplomatic ties with Israel after signing the Abraham Accords in 2020, during President Trump’s first term.
“Saudi Arabia is the most important Arab country because of its Islamic credentials,” he said, alluding to the Muslim holy cities of Mecca and Medina, which endow Riyadh with a leading political role in the Muslim world.
Oman and Qatar have embarked on diplomacy. Doha joined Islamabad in brokering the agreement between Iran and the U.S to end the war. Muscat has joined Tehran in discussions over how to manage navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Oman has previously mediated between Tehran and Washington.
“I will not be surprised if GCC breaks down,” Bahgat said. “They have really different policies now, and I don’t know if it will last very long as one organization.
Falasca, however, predicts that the Gulf countries’ inability to address Iran’s power independently will ultimately unify them. “They are starting to understand that cooperation is crucial for their future,” he said.
