Here are the five things you need to know this week.
Funeral ceremonies for Iran’s slain supreme leader continue today. His son and successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, has yet to appear at any of the events. Meanwhile, a policy proposal claiming Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz sits with the Supreme National Security Council days before Tehran and Washington are supposed to resume talks. Those negotiations could take up the nuclear issue for the first time since the two countries signed their memorandum of understanding (MOU) in June.
And there’s more: IAEA inspectors are waiting for access to the country’s bombed nuclear sites and OPEC and its allies have agreed to pump more oil into the market.
Find out more about the five stories below, and share your thoughts, analysis, and predictions with me at ailves@mbn-news.com. If you were forwarded the MBN Iran Briefing, please subscribe. Read me in Arabic here, or on the flagship MBN Arabic-language and English-language news sites.
And don’t forget to check out the latest Iran Briefing podcast. In this edition of the MBN Iran Briefing podcast I’m joined by Ken Pollack, Vice President for Policy at the Middle East Institute, as we take up whether the U.S. deterrence strategy regarding Iran has succeeded or failed, how Iran built its own deterrent around the Strait of Hormuz and its regional proxies, and what regime change could realistically look like now that the initial window has closed. Ken also tells me the three things that keep him up at night and why his thinking changed after the pivotal day of March 17, 2000. Watch here.
Quote of the Week
[Mojtaba Khamenei] wants to come out. He wants to meet people. But the security doesn’t allow him to come … They said ‘it is very dangerous and we cannot provide security for him.
Ayatollah Hakim Elahi, the Supreme Leader’s representative in India
TOP OF THE NEWS: THE WEEK AHEAD
- Burial and Silence
The burial of Iran’s late supreme leader Ali Khamenei at the Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad falls on Thursday, closing out a six-day procession through Tehran, Qom, and Najaf and Karbala in Iraq. Foreign dignitaries including Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, and delegations from China and India have used the extended mourning period for meetings with Iranian officials.
Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf met with visiting Hezbollah officials and called the group’s role in the war a historic turning point. He stressed “the unbreakable bond between resistance groups and Iran.”
The Western press has been gushing about the fervor and size of the crowds grieving the late leader, but they generally touch only lightly on the staggering fact that Ali Khamenei’s own son and successor has yet to emerge, even for his own father’s funeral.
Watch whether Mojtaba Khamenei breaks his silence this week.
- What Has to Happen Before the Next Round
It’s been reported that the next round of talks may take place on Saturday, addressing the nuclear issue for the first time since the memorandum of understanding was signed.
A number of factors may decide whether the negotiations move ahead or stall. Tehran says discussions on a final, lasting agreement can’t start until a commitment to a ceasefire in Lebanon is in place and frozen assets are actually released, not just agreed on.
As for the assets themselves, an understanding to release an initial $3 billion tranche of frozen funds for Iran to use on humanitarian purchases was reportedly reached, but U.S. officials have denied any such understanding and said no funds have been released to date.
Tolls are another issue. Iran’s commitment to free transit runs only until mid-August, and while Tehran maintains it will charge fees once that window closes, the U.S. and Gulf Arab states insist Iran and Oman cannot impose charges of any kind on the waterway. Worth noting: Iran’s ambassador to China said over the weekend that Beijing and other “friendly” nations will get special consideration on whatever service fees Tehran ultimately charges for the strait. Apparently this is an arrangement Iran is working out jointly with Oman.
Watch whether a new meeting date gets set this week, which sticking point ends up holding up the next session, and whether either side shifts its language on direct versus indirect contact. Also worth watching: With NATO leaders meeting in Turkey tomorrow and Wednesday, it remains to be seen whether Iran gets any explicit mention.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief Asim Munir offering prayers during the state funeral of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran. Photo: AFP.
- Hormuz Bill Heads to Parliament
A 12-article bill on Iran’s claimed legal authority over the Strait of Hormuz is with the Supreme National Security Council for final review. The text’s core position – that Hormuz sits within Iranian and Omani territorial waters and that shipping restrictions are a matter of sovereign discretion rather than of international transit law – is the same one that deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi has been making publicly. Parliamentary approval would insert that position into domestic law for the first time, directly at odds with Washington’s stated position that Iran can’t charge any tolls or fees under a final agreement.
Watch whether the bill reaches the floor this week, and whether its passage, right before a possible next round of talks on Saturday, adds a legal aspect to the dispute.
- IAEA: Waiting on Dates
IAEA inspectors currently only have access to two sites, the Bushehr power plant and the Tehran research reactor. Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, the sites bombed during last year’s 12-day war and where Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile is believed to be stored, remain off-limits. Ghalibaf reaffirmed this position just last week, citing both a law passed by parliament and a separate resolution from the Supreme National Security Council barring access to bombed sites under any circumstances.
Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, has said dates and locations for wider access are still being worked out, and that the Islamabad memorandum of understanding leaves no room for ambiguity about inspections happening: “Whether this happens the day after tomorrow or in one week or in 10 days, it’s important, but not essential. This is going to happen.”
The stakes: The agency’s last confirmed count put Iran’s 60-percent-enriched stockpile at just under 441 kilograms. The widespread assumption is that it still sits at Isfahan, one of the bombed sites Iran has kept off limits. Article 8 of the MOU specifies on-site downblending, or diluting the enriched material to a lower, non-weapons-usable concentration, under IAEA supervision, as the “minimum methodology” for resolving the stockpile, though Grossi has separately floated shipping the material out of Iran entirely as an alternative.
Watch whether Grossi issues a statement on access timing once the mourning period ends, and whether the possible Saturday round touches upon verification now that nuclear talks may be on that agenda for the first time.
An employee of Basra Oil Company inspects the Nahr Bin Umar Oil and Gas Field on the outskirts of the southern Iraqi city of Basra. Photo: AFP
- Oil: The Iraq Question
OPEC and its allied producers, including Russia, agreed yesterday to pump 188,000 more barrels a day starting in August. That’s the fifth monthly increase in a row. Brent crude is trading near $72 a barrel now, down from $120 at the peak of the price spike driven by the war.
The group has slowly been restoring production it cut back in 2023, and the ceasefire has let that continue even though shipping through Hormuz still hasn’t returned to normal levels. A major question heading into the group’s August 2 meeting, where next month’s output will get decided, is the stance of Iraq. Baghdad wants OPEC+ to let it pump and sell more oil than it’s currently allowed to, and has said it might leave the group entirely if that doesn’t happen. That threat carries more weight now that the UAE already quit over the same complaint.
Watch whether Iraq follows through on that threat before Aug. 2.
