Iran has instructed its Houthi allies in Yemen to prepare to disrupt oil tanker traffic through the Red Sea if the United States targets Iran’s power grid or energy infrastructure, raising fresh concerns over the security of one of the world’s most vital maritime chokepoints.
Should the Houthis act on Tehran’s request, the confrontation that has already threatened shipping in the Strait of Hormuz could expand to the Bab el-Mandeb, a strategic gateway linking the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and carrying a significant share of global trade between Asia and Europe.
The Houthis have previously carried out dozens of attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb, saying the campaign was intended to pressure Israel and its allies to end the war in Gaza. Those attacks forced many shipping companies to reroute vessels away from the Red Sea and prompted the United States and several European countries to deploy naval forces to protect maritime traffic.
Still, analysts question whether the Houthis have the capability to shut down the Bab el-Mandeb entirely, even if they remain capable of carrying out intermittent attacks and increasing the risks for commercial shipping.
“The group can launch attacks or raise the cost of transit through the strait, but closing it would require military, logistical and maritime control capabilities that it simply does not possess,” Ibrahim Al-Malek, a writer and researcher specializing in strategic governance, told MBN.
The Bab el-Mandeb is one of the world’s most important oil transit routes. According to the Council on Foreign Relations, roughly 12 to 15 percent of global seaborne trade passes through the strait each year.
Perim Island divides the waterway into two channels, with international shipping primarily using the western channel, which is about 16 miles (26 kilometers) wide near Djibouti. Despite its relatively narrow width, securing the passage requires sustained military deployments and continuous surveillance.
In December 2023, the United States launched Operation Prosperity Guardian, a multinational effort involving Arab and European partners to safeguard commercial shipping in the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden and the Bab el-Mandeb.
Washington followed that effort in March 2025 with Operation Rough Rider, targeting Houthi missile capabilities, drones and infrastructure that U.S. officials said was being used to attack commercial vessels.
By late April of that year, U.S. Central Command said it had struck more than 800 targets, killing hundreds of militants and several senior Houthi leaders.
Meanwhile, the European Union’s Operation Aspides continues to patrol the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden amid concerns that the Houthis could resume attacks on international shipping.
The risks carry particular significance for Saudi Arabia, which has increasingly relied on its Red Sea export terminal at Yanbu as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have intensified.
Reuters reported Sunday that the kingdom routed about 75 percent of its oil exports through Yanbu in July in an effort to reduce its dependence on Gulf export routes.
The shift has coincided with renewed tensions between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia. The group’s leader has threatened to target Saudi airports, ports and oil facilities but has not announced any operation aimed at closing the Bab el-Mandeb.
According to data cited by Reuters from the maritime analytics platform Signal Ocean, Saudi crude shipments from Yanbu reached 4.7 million barrels per day by July 13, up from 3.36 million barrels per day on July 10.
Average loading volumes have exceeded 4 million barrels per day since June, compared with roughly 973,000 barrels per day during the same period in 2025, underscoring Saudi Arabia’s growing reliance on Red Sea export routes to offset reduced shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
Retired Air Force Maj. Gen. Abdullah Ghanem Al-Qahtani told MBN that while the Houthis can threaten maritime traffic, they currently lack the capability to close the strait altogether.
“Threatening navigation is possible, but today’s Houthi movement no longer possesses the capabilities it had several years ago,” he said.
Although Houthi attacks on commercial shipping have declined following the U.S. military campaign and the end of the Gaza war, analysts say the group’s ability to disrupt traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb will ultimately depend on the missile and drone capabilities it still retains, as well as the scale of any military response to an attempt to block the strategic waterway.
Adapted and translated from the original Arabic.
