Jordanians are watching an “extraterritorial war” between the United States and Iran unfold on their territory, amid growing expectations that fighting will resume after the collapse of Washington-Tehran talks aimed at ending the conflict.
For now, there is little public panic or emotional engagement. That could change, however, if Iran expands its targets beyond U.S. military facilities to Jordanian civilians or critical infrastructure.
“Jordan has not suffered anything so far—not one civilian,” a Western envoy said. “The targets are facilities hosting American personnel and military assets under bilateral defense agreements. It is U.S. personnel they are targeting.”
The envoy warned, however, that Iranian strikes have become “faster and more sophisticated,” making them increasingly difficult to intercept. Tehran might be keen to harm USA military assets in Jordan to reduce the interception of Iranian missiles on their way to Israel as prospects of a full-out war increase, drawing in Israeli power.
If Iran feels cornered by escalating American attacks and decides to target Jordanian infrastructure or civilians, the mood will change…For now, Jordanians are watching the show and eating popcorn.
Despite repeated attacks, Jordan has largely managed the crisis at minimal cost. “There is no panic in Amman,” another European diplomat said. “Life is completely normal. Sirens sounded across the country on Sunday, but Jordanians remain remarkably resilient.”
Officials say the current rules of engagement remain intact. Iranian missiles have focused on Jordanian air bases hosting U.S. forces rather than Jordanian military or civilian targets.
“But if Iran feels cornered by escalating American attacks and decides to target Jordanian infrastructure or civilians, the mood will change,” the diplomat said. “For now, Jordanians are watching the show and eating popcorn.”
Jordanian officials expect the conflict to intensify following the breakdown of negotiations. Speaking on condition of anonymity, two officials said Iran has refused to abandon its nuclear program while President Donald Trump and Israel continue to insist on dismantling it.
They argue that following the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, hardliners within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps now dominate decision-making, leaving little room for diplomacy.
“Israel benefited most from Khamenei’s killing,” one official said. “They knew hardliners would take over, making a negotiated settlement far less likely.”
The officials expect a new phase of the conflict marked by intensified U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian military and infrastructure targets. “The more attacks increase between Iran and Israel, the greater the danger for Jordan because of its geopolitical location,” one said.
Another senior official, however, believes Iran is unlikely to deliberately target Jordanian civilians.
“Jordan remains the only stable area bordering Israel,” he said. “Iran still enjoys sympathy among segments of the anti-Israel public and would not want to lose that. It also knows any direct attack on Jordan would trigger a strong response from the United States, Israel and Europe.”
An Arab security official added that Iran is carefully targeting U.S. military facilities on Jordanian soil using increasingly accurate intelligence on American deployments, most probably from Russia and China, Iran’s allies.
“The Americans will have to deal with those intelligence issues,” he said.
Both officials said they do not expect Washington to pressure Jordan or Gulf allies to participate directly in any expanded military campaign. The cost will be too high.
U.S. Bases Under Fire
The concern intensified after two U.S. soldiers were killed over the weekend in an Iranian strike on the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, where American troops and military assets are stationed under a long-term defense agreement. Another American soldier remains missing, while a third U.S. serviceman died in Iraq during the controlled detonation of an Iranian drone.
Jordan remains farther from the Iranian battlefield than Gulf bases, making it an increasingly valuable military hub for the Americans.
Four Iranian attacks against U.S. forces in Jordan within five days have wounded dozens and raised questions about the effectiveness of missile defense systems.
Jordan’s military said it intercepted three of four Iranian missiles launched toward the kingdom on Sunday, with the fourth landing in a remote southern area without causing casualties. Again, on Monday night and Tuesday morning, five Iranian drones were “neutralized with precision” with no casualties or damage reported.
“This is now an American problem,” one Arab official said. “Washington will have to strengthen Jordan’s protection after relocating major military assets from the UAE, Qatar and elsewhere before the war.”
Those assets include fighter aircraft, aerial refueling planes, radar systems and missile-defense batteries.
“They are here to stay and will likely be reinforced as the escalation continues,” the official said. “Despite recent casualties, Jordan remains farther from the Iranian battlefield than Gulf bases, making it an increasingly valuable military hub for the Americans.”
Balancing Domestic Opinion
Days before the latest attacks, Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi rejected descriptions of U.S. military “bases” in Jordan, stressing at the Aspen Security Forum that American forces are deployed under bilateral defense agreements that fully respect Jordanian sovereignty.
More than ten Western countries maintain military personnel on Jordanian facilities under similar agreements, largely supporting the international coalition against ISIS.
The distinction, however, has failed to convince many Jordanians who increasingly believe their country is being drawn into a war because of its strategic partnership with Washington and Israel.
Pro-government commentators have responded by urging national unity.
“Iran is attacking our country,” columnist Hussein Rawashdeh wrote. “Condemning repeated Iranian attacks is a national duty regardless of debates over foreign military facilities or our position toward Israel.”
The government has struggled to balance domestic sensitivities with the military reality. On Sunday, officials denied an earlier U.S. Embassy statement about incoming attacks, only for a missile to land near Aqaba minutes later.
Critics say such conflicting messaging reflects an outdated tactic to preserve Jordan’s image as a stable tourist destination despite the reality of an expanding regional conflict.
Meanwhile, misinformation has flourished online, including Iranian social media posts claiming local sources helped guide strikes against U.S. forces inside Jordan.
As attacks continued, Jordan’s army chief Maj. Gen. Yousef Huneiti traveled to Washington on Sunday for previously scheduled military talks expected to focus on expanding defense cooperation and securing additional U.S. military equipment, officials said.
Jordan’s strategic value to Washington has grown significantly since the war began. The Pentagon shifted military assets from Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates to Jordan apparently after several regional partners-imposed restrictions on the use of their territory for offensive operations.
Jordan allows the United States to use sections of its air bases under bilateral agreements. According to the latest U.S. Congressional report, roughly 4,000 American troops are stationed in various bases across the kingdom.
The country’s dependence on more than $1.4 billion in annual U.S. assistance and its close security partnership leave Amman with limited room to reject American military requests, making Jordan an increasingly central—if reluctant—frontline state in a widening U.S.-Iran confrontation.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect MBN’s editorial stance.
