Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has fueled speculation about who will succeed him and what role the military will play in picking Egypt’s next leader after declaring that he will leave office in 2030 and announcing a program to prepare candidates for the presidency.
Speaking at the Egyptian Military Academy several days ago, Sisi said his current presidential term, which ends in 2030, would be his last. The matter, he said, was “completely settled.” He also rejected constitutional amendments that would allow him to remain in office beyond that date.
Sisi did not name a potential successor. Instead, he outlined a process for preparing “future leaders” through the Egyptian Military Academy, whose role has expanded in recent years. Under the proposed program, training at the academy would become a prerequisite for senior leadership positions, ranging from cabinet ministers and provincial governors to members of Parliament and the president.
“If this system is implemented, it would be unprecedented anywhere in the world — perhaps with the exception of communist systems,” Yezid Sayigh, a senior fellow at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, told MBN.
Sayigh, who published “Remaking Egypt under Sisi” in 2025, argued that identifying potential successors was less important than understanding the military establishment’s position on the transfer of power: whether it would allow Sisi to extend his rule beyond 2030 or select his successor.
He also questioned whether Sisi’s unexpected announcement was a response to views within the military, a reflection of military opposition to extending the president’s tenure, or an attempt to circumvent that opposition.
Sisi, 71, is serving his final presidential term after winning reelection in December 2023.
Constitutional amendments approved in a 2019 referendum extended presidential terms from four years to six, allowing him to run for his current third term.
Succession Within the Family
In his latest remarks, Sisi said he wanted to leave Egypt’s leadership to a generation capable of shouldering responsibility, denying that he intended to pass power to a member of his family.
Speculation has grown about the increasing influence of the president’s sons, particularly Mahmoud el-Sisi, who holds a senior position in Egypt’s General Intelligence Service.
Sayigh doubts that Sisi has settled on a specific successor. He believes the president’s son lacks the qualifications and seniority needed to be an acceptable choice for the military establishment, which he expects to have the decisive say in selecting the next president.
Sayigh cautioned against treating Sisi’s proposed program as a guarantee of a democratic transfer of power. Egypt’s political history offers little evidence that a candidate from outside the ruling inner circle would have a genuine chance of winning, he said.
Sisi’s initiative may amount to a political show that is later abandoned to allow Sisi to pursue another way of remaining in power beyond 2030, Sayigh said.
His plan to prepare the next leader could also be a way to preserve military rule in a way that is more acceptable to domestic and international audiences.
Sayigh also did not rule out the possibility that the announcement reflects political challenges that have not been made public, or even disagreements within the military establishment over the future of the country’s leadership.
From Sisi’s Inner Circle
Charles W. Dunne, a nonresident fellow at the Arab Center Washington, D.C., and a former U.S. diplomat, said he expected Sisi to back a senior official he had appointed himself, pointing to Maj. Gen. Hassan Rashad, head of the General Intelligence Service, as one possible contender.
He argued that Sisi’s initiative reflects a clear determination to keep the military establishment at the forefront of Egypt’s political and governmental life, limiting the prospects for an independent civilian leader or political parties capable of competing for power.
Control over state institutions is intertwined with political and economic interests that have consolidated the influence of a generation of military leaders, Dunne said. Preserving that influence, he added, is likely to be a major consideration in the succession process.
Nearly all Egyptian presidents have come from the military since the republic was declared in 1953. The lone exception is Mohamed Morsi, who came to power through elections following the January 2011 uprising. The military ousted him in July 2013 under Sisi’s leadership. Sisi was defense minister at the time.
Sisi’s announcement of new “nomination mechanisms” underscores the expanding role of the Egyptian Military Academy, which comprises several colleges and has increasingly taken on responsibility for training and preparing personnel for positions in civilian institutions, including judicial, diplomatic and governmental bodies.
Sisi said the program would target people between the ages of 40 and 50 who hold doctoral degrees from prestigious Egyptian and foreign universities. Participants would undergo 30 months of study and training at the academy, after which Egyptians would have the opportunity to choose whom they considered suitable for the positions in question.
In 2025, Sisi had already spoken of the need for people seeking employment in state institutions to undergo a period of training and preparation at the academy.
The Egyptian president justified the expansion of the academy’s role at the time by citing the need to improve coordination among state institutions and shield young people from ideas he said threatened Egypt’s stability. He invoked the events of the 2011 uprising, which toppled former President Hosni Mubarak, and the unrest that followed.
According to Egypt’s Ministry of Defense website, the Military Academy is a “national educational and training institution that aims to prepare officers equipped with knowledge, discipline and leadership skills, capable of working efficiently under a range of conditions through an advanced educational and training system that keeps pace with the world’s latest systems.”
The academy includes the military, naval, air force and air defense colleges, technological military colleges, and any future educational institutes or colleges.
The appointment of Egypt’s current defense minister, Lt. Gen. Ashraf Zaher, was particularly notable. He served as director of the Military Academy from its establishment in 2022 until February 2026 before being appointed defense minister.
Dunne warned that any potential successor would face more than the task of maintaining loyalty to Sisi and his inner circle. The next president would also have to contain domestic opposition and preserve relations with the United States, a key pillar of Egypt’s regional influence.
Adapted and translated from the original Arabic.
