President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu just days before today’s Israeli elections was contingent on Israel holding off on new strikes on Iran until after the U.S. midterms, veteran U.S. diplomat Dennis Ross told MBN in an exclusive interview on Monday.
Ross said Netanyahu likely wanted to strike Iran before Israel’s elections Tuesday, while Trump did not want such a move before the U.S. midterms on Nov. 3.
“The timing is dictated more by the president’s political calendar rather than Bibi’s political calendar,” said Ross, who served as director of policy planning at the U.S. State Department under President George H.W. Bush and as special Middle East coordinator under President Bill Clinton.
The U.S. president likely told Netanyahu to hold off on strikes in exchange for Trump’s endorsement in the Knesset elections, Ross said. His interpretation is consistent with a CNN report saying Israel had been preparing new strikes, but U.S. officials had instead floated possible joint operations at a later date.
Netanyahu’s office denied the report, calling it “fake news,” according to the Times of Israel.
Axios reported that Trump said he did not favor a U.S. strike before the midterms.
The Times of Israel reported that, in terms of Iran, Trump said the United States and Netanyahu still had to “finish the job.”
Ross thought it likely Trump understood his endorsement could benefit Netanyahu ahead of Tuesday’s vote, but not enough to alter the dynamics of Israel’s electoral race, and it remains unclear whether this public show of support has had any meaningful impact inside Israel.
So far, there have been no signs either that Trump’s endorsement of Netanyahu has prompted any Iranian concessions or strengthened Washington’s negotiating position, and Ross argued that Trump’s refusal to launch strikes before the U.S. midterms raises questions around the credibility of deterrence.
Axios quoted U.S. and Israeli officials as saying Iran has become wary of renewed attacks after being caught off guard in the past, but Trump’s publicly defined windows of engagement have added a new factor to Tehran’s strategy.
The economic costs of these new calculations are reflected in the energy markets, as U.S. reports have pointed to rising oil prices as one consequence of renewed escalation with Iran.
The real test, said Ross, will come after both the Knesset elections and the American midterms: Will Tehran interpret the endorsement as a change in timing? Or as a shift in threat credibility itself?
Adapted and translated from the original Arabic.
