Message from Libya: The Boat Is Full

Hassuna Baishu is a Washington-based Libyan journalist who has worked across the Middle East and North Africa.

In Main Square, in the center of Tripoli, crowds of Libyans are venting their anger. This time, though, the object of their ire is not the 14-year civil war that has divided their country, or the warlords that have torn it apart. Beneath the chants and banners runs a deeper fear — that Libya could become a dumping ground for Europe’s unwanted migrants.

That fear deepened after Gen. Khalifa Haftar’s eastern-based Libyan National Army said it was ready to work with the British government to detain and repatriate irregular migrants before they reach Europe — a proposal that drew swift backlash in Tripoli, where officials and protesters warned it amounts to de facto resettlement.

Banners in the capital proclaim: “No to resettlement, Libya is not Rwanda.” That’s a reference to a 2022 plan by the British government to unload unwanted asylum-seekers on the Central African country in return for development aid. Legal and political obstacles ultimately torpedoed the project.
But the plan is still very much alive in the minds of Libyans – fueled by anxiety that the divided and war-weary nation could become a new destination for resettling migrants from sub-Saharan Africa.

This public outrage coincides with international warnings. In a new report, Human Rights Watch urged Italy to cancel its migration cooperation agreement with Libya, describing it as a “framework for violence and suffering” that has allowed Libya’s coast guard to send tens of thousands of people to inhumane detention centers.

While rights groups call for an end to what they term “European complicity,” fears are growing inside Libya that the country, deliberately or otherwise, could become the new candidate for a Rwanda-style plan on the Mediterranean.

In the coastal city of Misrata, some protesters went beyond demonstrations, attacking makeshift markets run by migrants, smashing stalls, and chasing workers away.

This wave of public anger follows reports of deals and proposals between authorities in eastern and western Libya and Western governments – among them an offer to the United Kingdom from the Libyan National Army, led by General Khalifa Haftar.

Security Cooperation or Political Bargain?

“We want to cooperate with the UK. Libya is the place where your crisis starts – we are the first point of contact.,” Maj. Gen. Khaled al-Sreir, deputy head of the Department for Combating Illegal Migration in eastern Libya (under Haftar’s control), told British media earlier this month.

“We are also the ones who are trying to stop the problem, with almost no international help. We don’t need money – what we need is an exchange of experiences and scenarios.,” he added.

Al-Sreie told The Telegraph that Libyan officials had informed their British counterparts that controlling migration flows depends on technical support from international partners. UN sanctions imposed on Libya since 2011 limit its ability to obtain surveillance and rescue equipment, making it nearly impossible to control the influx of migrants.

Political analyst Kamel al-Marash told me that the Libyan proposal “wasn’t a surprise,” but rather the outcome of a series of meetings arranged recently by British Ambassador Martin Longden with Haftar. “The Libyan demands were clear each time: provide the army with modern equipment to monitor borders and curb migration from deep inside Africa,” he said.

Al-Marash noted that the U.K. tends to back Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah’s internationally recognized government in Tripoli. The ambassador’s visits to Haftar were “largely diplomatic courtesies,” but “he finds himself embarrassed when the migration issue arises, the U.K. expects Libyans to contain it while denying them the tools to do so.”

According to the International Organization for Migration’s Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM), there were 894,890 migrants in Libya as of October 2025, from 44 nationalities. But the Interior Ministry of the Government of National Accord estimates the real number at about 2.5 million, most of whom entered illegally.

Roughly 90 percent of them are believed to be in Libya without legal status, while only 10 percent hold valid residence or work permits. Most are concentrated in Tripoli and Misrata. The vast majority work in agriculture, construction, domestic service, and the informal sector.

Political analyst Salah al-Bakoush noted that “Haftar claims control over Cyrenaica in the east and Fezzan in the south, but in reality, illegal migration flows into Libya from Egypt’s eastern border and from sub-Saharan countries.”

“That assessment is supported by IOM data showing that migrants from Niger, Sudan, Chad, Egypt, Nigeria, and Bangladesh make up the majority in Libya, evidence that the phenomenon extends beyond local security control into a broader regional problem.”

“Haftar makes promises to stop irregular migration to have the arms embargo lifted and to gain political recognition, even though this crisis doesn’t need weapons, just technology. The EU had a full migration management program since 2006, but it halted in 2011. Gadhafi used this bargaining chip before him, and now Haftar is repeating the same tactic,” al-Bakoush added.

From Rwanda to Libya

The U.K.–Rwanda deal was one of Europe’s most controversial migration plans. It stipulated deporting asylum-seekers from British soil to Rwanda, where their claims would be processed – until the British Supreme Court struck it down in 2023, declaring Rwanda “unsafe.”

From a British perspective, Libya may seem like a logical alternative: geographically close to Europe, with local authorities willing to cooperate and large areas that could be turned into detention or processing centers.

But Libya remains politically divided, with two rival governments claiming legitimacy, weak institutions, and no real capacity to protect migrants. UN reports have documented thousands held in harsh conditions, sometimes in secret prisons run by militias.

Al-Marash doubts that the Libyan National Army’s talks with the British side will reach the level of a Rwanda-style deal.

“Britain is uncomfortable dealing with Haftar, who acts independently, something London doesn’t like. The British don’t seem in a hurry to solve this crisis,” he said.

Asked whether Libya could become a “new Rwanda” for migrant resettlement, Ahmad Hamza, head of the National Human Rights Commission, told Alhurra: “[Libya] is no longer livable even for its own people,” citing insecurity and lack of stability. He stressed that current conditions “make it impossible to receive or host migrants at all.”

“No political or military actor has a mandate from Libyans to accept such deals,” he added, calling any attempt to use the migrant issue for political or military gain “unacceptable and an affront to the will of the Libyan people.”

Different European Deals, Same Goal

In 2024, the United Kingdom announced a $1.3 million aid package to Libya’s internationally recognized Government of National Unity to support reintegration programs and curb irregular migration. British Immigration Minister Michael Tomlinson said the deal aimed to support voluntary returns and discourage dangerous journeys to Europe.

But Libyan Interior Minister Imad al-Trabelsi criticized the weak European response. He reportedly told local media the European Union “only helps prevent migrants from reaching Europe, without contributing to their repatriation.” He added that “what’s happening on the ground amounts to de facto resettlement, albeit unofficially.”

Tariq Lamloum, head of the Benghazi Center for Migration and Asylum Studies, said EU policy “focuses on prevention, monitoring, and support for border guards,” while voluntary return programs remain limited. “Europeans do little more than repair rubber boats while ignoring serious solutions,” he said.

Al-Bakoush emphasized that “the crisis won’t be resolved without ending political division,” adding that some European states, chiefly Italy, are “buying cooperation from Libyan actors with undeclared financial support to stem migrant flows.”

UN reports confirm that Libya has effectively become Europe’s external buffer zone, where migrants are intercepted and detained in harsh conditions with direct European support.

Lamloum said there is “a coordinated process of gathering migrants and moving them to centers near airports and coasts,” noting that cities such as Sirte, Brega, and Tobruk have become major hubs for their concentration.

“All those intercepted at sea are used as leverage against Europe,” he said. “In one night, hundreds could be released, detention centers are that close to the coast.”

In the end, Europe’s deals may differ in form, through funding, aid, or promises of cooperation, but the goal remains the same: keeping migrants as far as possible from European shores, at any cost.