The United States and Iran are preparing to engage in talks on Friday in the Sultanate of Oman, amid conflicting statements about the agenda.
The anticipated meeting comes against a backdrop of pressure, threats, deep mistrust, and disputes over the issues to be addressed in the negotiations. Washington insists that the talks must include Iran’s nuclear program, its arsenal of ballistic missiles, and its support for armed groups in the Middle East—issues that have long been a source of tension between the two countries since President Donald Trump withdrew from the nuclear agreement in 2015.
As Iranian officials speak of limiting the Oman talks strictly to the nuclear file, and the Trump administration insists on addressing all three issues, Ilan Berman, vice president of the American Foreign Policy Council, rules out the White House’s acceptance of a “limited agreement that does not go beyond the nuclear issue, such as the development of ballistic missiles and support for proxy groups.”
In exclusive comments to Alhurra, Berman recalls Trump’s opposition to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between Iran and the West, describing it as “far too lenient on Tehran, too limited in duration, and modest in the restrictions it imposed” on the activities of the Iranian regime.
On the eve of the Oman talks, Iran continues to insist that its missile capabilities and regional alliances remain outside the scope of nuclear negotiations, arguing that they are an integral part of its national security.
Alan Eyre, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and a former spokesperson for the U.S. State Department, believes there are “indications that Iran is willing to listen to the other side talk about missiles and proxies … even though it wants to discuss only the nuclear issue.”
However, Eyre does not expect Tehran to negotiate the imposition of restrictions on its missile program or on its support for proxy groups.
The talks between the Iranian and U.S. sides are expected to be indirect, mediated by Omani officials. Eyre believes that, under these circumstances, the best option is to continue the dialogue “rather than reach a final agreement.”
As for the leverage cards Tehran holds in this round of negotiations, Berman says that “the Iranian regime is going through the weakest phase in its nearly 47-year history. The economy is in dire shape, Iranians are deeply angry, and the country’s religious government has lost all semblance of legitimacy.”
At the same time, Berman notes that President Trump has repeatedly stated that he is not interested in nation-building, “which suggests that any U.S. strategy aimed at political change in Iran will most likely remain limited in scope.”
Eyre argues that Tehran “does have leverage, in the form of its arsenal of weapons and missiles, which gives it bargaining power,” in his view.
Eyre does not rule out the possibility that Iran may attempt to “destabilize the region by attacking Israel, U.S. allies, or American forces in the region.” Tehran views the current confrontation as an existential threat to the survival of the regime, he says.
By contrast, Washington expects—according to Berman—the “dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program, a halt to the development of ballistic missiles, and an end to support for proxy groups that have become more burdensome than the United States was previously willing to tolerate.”
The hardline position Berman points to comes from a U.S. conviction that the political and security costs of offering concessions to Iran have grown higher in a region undergoing rapid change.
Eyre believes that Trump “is not determined to strike Iran. What he primarily wants is what he achieved in last year’s Twelve-Day War, and what he achieved with Maduro: a quick win, whether through negotiations or a strike, so he can say, ‘Look what I accomplished,’ and then move on to something else.”
The Oman talks come at a time when regional capitals in particular are watching closely for any signs of diplomatic progress or escalation, while many observers agree that the likelihood of reaching a comprehensive agreement in the near term remains low.
The article is a translation of the original Arabic.
