Hamas will try to put a new face on this Ramadan. It will announce a new leader, reportedly one of two: Khalil al-Hayya, a Sharia scholar from Gaza, or Khaled Meshal, a veteran fundraiser with extensive regional connections. When it happens, you “will” hear about an election, and that will not be accurate.
Hamas follows Shura, a system to represent different regions and sectors. But real power has always been guns and cash. Elders are “consulted,” but a hive-mind of sorts decides the important strategic decisions. And for now, Hamas seems not ready for such decisions; the new leader will serve only one year, not four.
What Hamas seems to be doing is sending a signal, and the identity of the new leader determines which signal that is. Choosing Meshal would signal: Let’s compromise. al-Hayya is a different story. Meshal had led Hamas for 21 years (1996-2017). Two things to know about him: He is disliked by Iran, the Gaza chapter, and the military wing, and he has done (survival) before- 20 years ago.
After 2005, Meshal had to deal with a new reality: A Palestinian Authority that is committed to ending the Second Intifada. He looked inward: Hamas quietly abandoned large-scale suicide bombings, defeated Fatah, and took control of Gaza. In 2026, Hamas faces similar challenges on a much larger scale. The signal Meshal sends: Hamas wants to save Hamas. al-Hayya will try to save Hamas’s control of Gaza.
See, al-Hayya is from Gaza. Meshal is from the West Bank (although he spent most of his life in Kuwait, Jordan, Syria, and Qatar.) al-Hayya is a Hamas preacher with limited political talents- not dissimilar to another Hamas leader: Ismail Haniyeh. Haniyeh was the Gaza leader who replaced Meshal in 2017 (killed in Tehran in 2024). Originally seen as a (relatively) moderate voice, under his leadership, Iran’s influence in Hamas grew. The real power was with the military strongman Yahya Sinwar, (who was also killed in 2024) A reminder of what it means to be a Hamas leader after October 7, 2023, more than anything else, an Israeli death sentence.
