Along the Lebanese–Israeli border, the military scene is intensifying at a pace suggesting that southern Lebanon stands on the brink of a highly dangerous turning point. Unprecedented Israeli military deployments, widespread evacuation warnings affecting dozens of cities and towns, and escalating airstrikes along the frontline all indicate the possibility of an Israeli ground incursion.
Over the past few days, the southern front has turned into an open arena of confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel after the group entered the conflict in support of Iran following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Hezbollah launched several rockets toward Israel, prompting Israeli retaliatory airstrikes targeting Beirut’s southern suburbs and other areas in Lebanon.
As military developments accelerate and strikes are exchanged, signs are mounting that the confrontation may be entering a more sensitive phase. Analysts believe the Israeli military buildup and movements could be preparations for broader ground operations.
Troops Buildup and Evacuation Warnings
Since Hezbollah joined the confrontation, the Israeli military has intensified its air campaign against the group’s positions, carrying out hundreds of strikes targeting rocket launch platforms, command centers, weapons depots, and field commanders. Israel says these strikes are part of an ongoing military campaign aimed at reducing Hezbollah’s capabilities along its northern border.
The aerial escalation has coincided with notable moves on the ground. The Israeli army has called on residents of dozens of southern Lebanese towns to evacuate their homes. On Tuesday it expanded the warnings, urging all residents of towns south of the Litani River to evacuate immediately and move north of the river, warning that any movement toward the south could endanger their lives.
In the same context, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced the approval of “control over additional high ground in Lebanon to protect border communities,” adding that Hezbollah “is paying and will continue to pay a heavy price for firing toward Israel.”
According to sources cited by Alhurra, the Israeli army has begun strengthening its military presence inside southern Lebanon, with the 91st and 146th divisions entering new positions along the border area. The sources explained that this move “does not constitute a large-scale ground maneuver, but rather a defensive measure aimed at establishing an additional layer of protection, while designating a combat zone in which any armed individual entering it becomes a legitimate target.”
Meanwhile, the Lebanese army announced that it had detected an Israeli incursion into Lebanese territory, noting that the army command is continuing coordination with UNIFIL and the ceasefire monitoring committee in an effort to halt Israeli strikes.
The Lebanese army also indicated that its units have repositioned at several border points within their sectors of responsibility, despite limited capabilities, while taking exceptional measures to maintain security and prevent armed displays across various regions.
A Military Assessment
With military activity increasing along Israel’s northern border, attention is turning to the possible next stage of confrontation with Hezbollah.
Strategic expert retired Brigadier General George Nader believes the size of the forces massed along the border “suggests preparations for a ground operation.” He noted that “current estimates indicate around one hundred thousand Israeli soldiers are mobilized along the northern front.”
Nader explained to Alhurra that “this number is equivalent to six to seven military divisions, a force large enough to carry out a wide invasion, not only of southern Lebanon but potentially deep into Lebanese territory.”
He added that the widespread evacuation warnings and the prohibition on residents returning to areas south of the Litani River are “intended to empty the battlefield before any ground operation begins.”
Nevertheless, Nader emphasized that the exact nature of any potential operation “remains unclear, as military plans remain confidential.”
Israeli Incursions
Lebanon has witnessed two major Israeli invasions. The first took place in 1978, when Israeli forces invaded southern Lebanon up to the Litani River in an operation aimed at pushing fighters of the Palestine Liberation Organization away from the border.
The larger invasion occurred in 1982, when Israeli forces penetrated deep into Lebanese territory and reached Beirut, where they imposed a siege on the capital that ended with the departure of the PLO leadership and thousands of fighters by sea from Lebanon.
However, Israeli military interventions were not limited to those two invasions. Southern Lebanon has also seen other large-scale ground operations, including the 1993 campaign known as “Operation Accountability,” followed by the 1996 operation called “Grapes of Wrath.” The 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah also included ground incursions into several southern villages.
After Hezbollah declared what it called a “support war” for Gaza in 2023, Israel also carried out incursions into parts of southern Lebanon during the fighting and seized several positions that it still maintains.
Political analyst Elias Zoghbi told Alhurra that any Israeli incursion into southern Lebanon, or even into the Bekaa Valley, would be a direct result of Hezbollah’s renewed involvement in supporting Iran.
According to Zoghbi, this would place direct responsibility on Hezbollah “nationally, politically, and among the public more than any previous involvement.” He added that resentment within Hezbollah’s own environment is growing, with even some of its strongest supporters beginning to express doubts, while others openly voice anger and frustration at the group’s complete alignment with Iranian decision-making.
Zoghbi also argued that this approach could lead to increasing distance between Hezbollah and the Amal Movement and its leader, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, as well as deepen the rift between Hezbollah on one side and the Lebanese state and other political and sectarian components on the other.
Limited Options
In contrast, the Lebanese state appears to have limited options under the current balance of power.
Nader believes Lebanon now has little room left to maneuver either militarily or diplomatically. He said opportunities that might have prevented escalation “have been lost,” adding that the government’s decision to ban Hezbollah’s military activity came “too late.” He also pointed out that real influence in this issue ultimately lies with the United States.
Nader outlined three possible scenarios.
The first is that Hezbollah becomes convinced to surrender its weapons, an option the group rejects.
The second is that the Lebanese state moves to disarm Hezbollah by force, something that has not happened so far.
The third — and most dangerous — scenario is “an Israeli invasion that imposes peace by force,” noting that current indicators suggest this path may be the most likely.
For his part, Zoghbi believes the Lebanese state “cannot deal with Israeli incursions except with caution and wisdom,” in order not to repeat what he describes as Hezbollah’s mistake and cause further casualties and destruction.
He says this reality explains the Lebanese state’s instructions to the army leadership to avoid direct confrontation with the Israeli military machine due to the “collapse of the balance of power,” and instead prioritize “supporting civilians in southern towns and villages in coordination with the remaining UNIFIL forces.”
Amid these circumstances, southern Lebanon remains under the weight of anxious anticipation over what the coming days may bring on the ground. Between military mobilization and increasing warnings, fears are growing that the confrontation could slide into a far more dangerous phase that may include a large-scale Israeli ground invasion.
The article is a translation of the original Arabic.
