Ceasefires in previous Israel-Hezbollah wars once offered southern Lebanese families certainty: they would return to their villages despite the destruction.
Roads would reopen quickly, debris removal crews would begin work, and residents would return to cracked or partially destroyed homes while waiting for reconstruction, driven by a firm belief that displacement was only temporary, no matter how long the war lasted.
But this time, the picture appears far more complicated.
Large parts of southern Lebanon have been transformed into devastated or nearly deserted areas, while Israeli forces control a number of border towns, casting doubt on the very idea of return for the first time in decades.
Inside shelters and overcrowded apartments, conversations among displaced residents are no longer limited to the loss of homes and livelihoods. Increasingly, they revolve around deeper fears about prolonged displacement and the possibility of never returning.
The war has also opened a debate that goes beyond the humanitarian dimension, raising questions tied to demographic balances and social transformations in a country where geography is intertwined with politics, sectarian identity and influence, and where population movement becomes an issue extending beyond the limits of war.
Displacement With No Horizon
In a rented apartment in the town of Aley, Souad, displaced from the southern town of Aitaroun, is trying to adapt to a life that appears temporary from the outside but is stretching longer by the day.
She said what exhausts displaced residents today is not only leaving their villages, but also the uncertainty surrounding the future.
“In the past, we would leave knowing we would return. Today, no one knows the fate of our villages,” Souad told Alhurra.
She explained that discussions about return within her family have gradually diminished because they are now tied to questions extending beyond a ceasefire. “People are no longer only asking whether homes are destroyed, but whether return is even possible in the first place.”
These concerns are no longer confined to border villages. They have become part of the daily lives of hundreds of thousands of displaced people spread across different parts of Lebanon.
Manal, displaced from the town of Khiam, said displaced residents now fear the imposition of permanent housing solutions outside southern Lebanon through residential complexes and fixed shelters that could eventually become alternatives to returning home.
“What people in the south want today goes beyond aid or temporary shelter. We want to return and touch the land of the south,” Manal told Alhurra.
She described how simple details of daily life have become a constant source of longing: “The balcony where the family gathered in the evenings, the land where its owners know every tree, the smell of the soil after the rain.”
She stressed that, for the people of the south, the region is not merely a geographic border or a place to live, but part of identity, memory and life itself.
“Our bodies are here, but our hearts are still there, in front of the homes we left behind in haste,” she said.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz previously announced that the Israeli military intends to establish a buffer zone in southern Lebanon stretching from the border to the Litani River, warning that about 600,000 southern residents would not be able to return to their villages before the security of residents in northern Israel is guaranteed.
Israeli warnings and measures have not been limited to areas south of the Litani River. They have also extended to areas south of the Zahrani River, where the Israeli military has called on residents to move north of Zahrani and to towns in the Bekaa Valley, a move that has fueled growing fears about the widening scope of evacuations.
Despite a truce announced on April 16 and extended through May 17, clashes between Hezbollah and Israel continue on the ground, reflecting the fragility of the calm and the difficulty of securing a lasting ceasefire.
A Different Map
During the 2006 war, displaced southerners were spread across various Lebanese regions, while some left for Syria and Iraq. In the current war, however, the displacement map appears markedly different, according to Rabeh Haber, director of Statistics Lebanon.
“The majority of displaced residents are concentrated in Beirut and Mount Lebanon, particularly in the Chouf and Aley districts, while movement toward Metn, Keserwan and Jbeil has declined,” Haber told Alhurra.
He noted that the Shiite presence in the Aley district had previously been concentrated in the towns of Qmatiyeh and Kayfoun, but that the current displacement could lead to expansion into deeper areas of the district.
Haber said a similar pattern could emerge in the Chouf district, particularly in the predominantly Sunni Iqlim al-Kharroub area.
He added that current data do not indicate short-term displacement.
“When we talk about around 60,000 destroyed housing units, that practically means between 250,000 and 300,000 people are now without homes,” he said.
In some areas, these concerns have been reflected in municipal measures imposing controls on rental activity and housing arrangements amid Lebanon’s longstanding sensitivity toward large-scale demographic changes, alongside security concerns tied to the possibility that targeted individuals may be among new tenants.
The number of displaced people in Lebanon has surpassed 1 million, according to the United Nations, which said around 126,000 are staying in more than 600 collective shelters across the country, while the majority of displaced residents remain outside official shelters.
According to Lebanon’s Disaster Risk Management Unit at the Grand Serail, the total number of displaced people staying in shelters as of May 12 stood at 127,721 individuals from 33,125 families.
Is Hezbollah Seeking a New Stronghold?
For more than four decades, southern Lebanon has represented the primary geographic extension of Hezbollah’s popular and political influence, serving as the movement’s demographic and organizational center and its broadest support base.
Developments imposed by the current war have raised questions about whether the group may seek to expand its presence into other Lebanese regions.
Journalist Tony Boulos said the current developments are linked to “the party’s attempt to reposition itself inside Lebanon after the latest war, both in security and demographic terms.”
But he pointed to what he described as “growing Lebanese awareness toward any change that could later impose new political and security realities, whether within Christian or Druze communities or among broad segments of Lebanese society.”
Boulos told Alhurra that previous displacement experiences showed widespread opposition to establishing permanent centers or long-term housing outside Hezbollah’s traditional environment.
“Despite some individual sales and rental operations, the party remains far from imposing a radical change in demographic balances,” he said.
Between Fears and Reality
Political analyst Badih Qarhani also does not view current developments as a prelude to a permanent change in the demographic map of Lebanon’s Shiite community.
“The majority of displaced residents still view their current situation as a temporary phase imposed by war,” Qarhani told Alhurra.
“The people of the south are deeply attached to their land. Even if homes are destroyed, the idea of remaining away from their villages is not easy for them,” he said.
Qarhani stressed that “any strategy by Hezbollah to establish new strongholds outside its traditional areas would run into a dead end because of Lebanon’s sectarian composition.”
Boulos, meanwhile, emphasized that responsibility for addressing the issue “ultimately falls on the Lebanese state, because the continued absence of the state opens the door to attempts to impose new demographic and security realities by force.”
During direct negotiations with Israel, Lebanon has continued to insist on a set of demands it considers essential for reaching a peace agreement, including securing a ceasefire, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory, the release of prisoners, guaranteeing the return of displaced residents to their villages and beginning reconstruction in affected areas.
For many displaced residents, however, larger political calculations matter less than daily survival questions: Where will they live if the war drags on? And how will they secure a livelihood after many have lost their jobs and sources of income?
The article is a translation of the original Arabic.
