Welcome back to the MBN Friday Briefing, our weekly roundup of our best reporting on the Middle East and Washington.
While no one knows when and how the unfolding U.S. military campaign against Iran will end, MBN learned that these first strikes are just the beginning of a drawn-out operation that the U.S. had prepared for months before the first missile was fired.
While Iranians in the diaspora are celebrating the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and dozens of other top officials, things appear different in Iran. Aside from muted jubilation, we also find fears, hopes, and acute shortages of power, gas, and food. MBN’s Iran Briefing examines what a post-Khamenei Iran might look like, with Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei mentioned as a successor to his father.
President Donald Trump is confident that the current conflict gives us “an opportunity to reshape the region,” a White House official told MBN’s Washington Bureau Chief Joe Kawly. Still, some aides worry about a longer, costlier war and its repercussions. What will the Middle East look like when the dust settles? And what are the regional and global consequences of a severely weakened Iran? These are the kinds of questions our reporters are delving into on MBN’s suite of newsletters and website.
The Friday Briefing is also published in Arabic. If you were forwarded this newsletter, subscribe here. We’d love to hear from you at thebriefing@mbn-news.com.
This Week on MBN
The Shape of Future Iran
For decades, Iran has been a destructive and destabilizing force in the Middle East. What can we expect from a future regime? How will Iranians mobilize? And are there now genuine prospects for democracy in Iran? These are the questions discussed at the maiden session of MBN’s Digital Salon. MBN’s CEO and President Jeff Gedmin moderated the discussion with journalist and commentator Roya Hakakian, with senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations Elliot Abrams, and with MBN’s senior director for strategic initiatives Andres Ilves.
Watch the video here
MBN Iran Briefing:
Andres Ilves’ weekly reporting and understanding of what’s going on in Tehran and its impact on the wider world.
Trump Ramps Up Pressure
President Donald Trump said that the U.S. strike was a preemptive step in preventing a possible nuclear conflict – asserting that Iran would have attacked first – and said that Iran’s military capabilities have been severely weakened. MBN’s Ghassan Taqi reports that while Trump stopped short of openly calling for regime change, his remarks suggest Washington is thinking about Iran’s “day after.”
Read the article here
War Signals a New Middle East
Israel is pursuing a post Oct. 7th strategy, fighting this war as a way of completely reshaping the Middle East by weakening Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” through sustained military pressure backed by the United States. In this MBN Magazine analysis, Akeel Abbas argues that the approach marks a shift from earlier diplomatic frameworks like the 1979 Camp David Accords and the 1990s Madrid Peace Process toward a security-driven effort to dismantle Iran’s regional network.
Read the article here
Under Fire, the Gulf Closes Ranks
In retaliation for U.S. and Israeli strikes, Iran is lashing out indiscriminately at civilian, oil and gas targets across the Gulf. This has had an unintended outcome. MBN’s Magazine Saudi contributor Abdulaziz Alkhamis explains that Gulf states, which had, until recently, been at each other’s throats, have put aside their differences and banded together like never before.
Read the article here
U.S. Strike Exposes China’s Limitations
America’s strike on Iran has badly shaken China’s position in the Middle East and exposed just how limited Beijing’s influence really is. The crisis threatens China’s energy security, since Iran supplies a significant share of its oil. MBN’s China Editor Min Mitchell says China’s focus is protecting trade, oil flows and trying to limit damage — rather than shaping what happens next.
Read the article here
The MBN China Tracker is a data-driven, interactive feature on how successfully Beijing wields economic, political and military influence in the Middle East compared to the U.S.
Hezbollah Rockets Backfire
Iran’s regional proxies have so far been mostly vocal. The few rockets that Hezbollah fired on northern Israel have backfired. Not only has Israel doled out swift and expanding military punishment, but, as MBN’s Asrar Chbaro and Joelle Hajj Moussa explain, the Hezbollah rockets have galvanized Lebanon into demanding the immediate and complete disarmament of Hezbollah and even enraging its own supporters.
Read the article here and watch the video here
Baghdad Shifts Course
With Iran’s weakened state and under heightened U.S. threats, Iraq’s power centers are pivoting. An Iraqi military official tells Ghassan Taqi that the government is moving to rein in unruly Iranian-backed militias. Meanwhile, MBN’s Baghdad correspondent Mustafa Saadoon reports that former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, the Iran-friendly nominee of the ruling Shiite bloc, will soon announce his withdrawal from the race for prime minister.
Read the article here and here
Strait of Hormuz Tensions
MBN has learned that Iraq may halt oil exports from its southern fields within days, as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has stopped after Iranian attacks on vessels. With 20% of total daily oil flows going through Hormuz, the disruption raises immediate concerns about the stability of the global oil and gas market. In this video, MBN’s Randa Jebai explains how Tehran is leveraging disruptions to exert geopolitical pressure.
Watch the video here
Closer
“This is not Iraq. This is not endless. This is not a so-called regime-change war, but the regime sure did change, and the world is better off for it.”
—U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth
