Veteran U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker said the death of Iran’s supreme leader and the current military campaign represent the most significant shift in the Middle East since the 1979 Revolution.
Crocker, who serves as the chairman of the board for the Middle East Broadcasting Networks (MBN) and previously served as the U.S. envoy to six Middle Eastern nations, spoke to MBN journalists about a region entering what he described as a “vast and indefinite period of the great dark unknown.”
Despite the long-term uncertainty, Crocker noted that the United States and Israel currently hold the position of “strong horses” in a conflict that has already fundamentally altered the regional balance of power.
“This is the biggest event in the region, frankly, since the Iranian Revolution in 1979,” Crocker said. “I think it is already bigger than 2003 in Iraq. It is certainly bigger than Afghanistan in 2001, and it’s bigger than Gaza, a lot bigger.”
The ‘Strong Horse’ and Strategic Unity
The ambassador highlighted immediate military successes, noting that the Iranian Navy is now “pretty well underwater.” While he acknowledged that Iran’s missile and drone capacities remain lethal, he predicted a “sharp diminution” in their ability to strike back within the coming week as U.S.-led operations continue to degrade their launch sites and armaments.
This display of military dominance has fostered an “unprecedented degree of GCC unity” among Gulf Arab states, who have invoked their collective defense agreement for the first time in history. However, Crocker balanced this observation by pointing to growing anxiety among Gulf economic elites. Crocker warned that even if Iran’s primary rocket capacity is neutralized, the regime will maintain a “sabotage capability” against Gulf infrastructure and shipping that could persist indefinitely.
The Institutional Shift: From Clergy to Military
Crocker expects the death of the supreme leader to trigger a permanent transfer of power from the religious clergy to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). He suggested that any successor to the office would be “not exactly supreme anymore,” with the IRGC likely to consolidate control over the state’s decision-making apparatus.
According to Crocker, this new military-led leadership is unlikely to “surrender unconditionally” and may prove more ruthless in maintaining internal order. He cautioned that the IRGC might turn its weapons on its own people to suppress dissent, a scenario he compared to the 1991 uprisings in Iraq. During that conflict, the U.S. encouraged the Iraqi population to take matters into their own hands, only to watch as the regime “brutally repressed” the Shia south and Kurdish north while the U.S. remained on the sidelines. Crocker warned that the U.S. may soon face a similar humanitarian and moral dilemma in Iran.
The ‘End of Isms’ and Ideological Exhaustion
In a broader ideological assessment, Crocker suggested the region might be witnessing the “beginning of the end” of Islamism as a dominant political force. He argued that the collapse of the Iranian model, combined with the “backfiring” of proxy campaigns by Hezbollah in Lebanon and the devastation of the Hamas-led campaign in Gaza, is draining the momentum from both Shia and Sunni Islamist movements.
“We may be seeing the end of ‘Islamism’ as a dominant political force,” Crocker said. He noted that while the Iranian regime failed to build bomb shelters for its citizens, the Iranian people have begun to signal their exhaustion with the current system. Crocker pointed to reports of Iranians “dancing in the streets” upon hearing of the regime’s setbacks as a potential indicator of a deep-seated desire for a post-ideological future.
Regional Tripwires: Kurds and Nuclear Neighbors
The ambassador identified several “tripwires” that could ignite a regional conflagration if the Iranian state continues to fragment. He warned that a Kurdish independence movement triggered by a weakened Tehran would pose an “existential threat” to Turkey and could destabilize the established borders of Iraq and Syria.
“What happens if we face that same scenario this time around?” Crocker asked, referring to the potential for a Kurdish rebellion to spill across multiple borders.
He also expressed deep concern for nuclear-armed Pakistan. Crocker noted that restiveness in Iran’s Baluchistan province could easily bleed across the border, further destabilizing a Pakistani state already engaged in an “open war” with the Taliban and struggling with significant internal volatility.
A Survivor’s Warning: The Asymmetric Front
Drawing on his personal experience as a survivor of the 1983 Beirut Embassy bombing, Crocker cautioned that the conflict is likely to move beyond conventional military exchanges. He warned that the world must prepare for a potential “war of embassies.”
“They are not without assets,” Crocker said of the Iranian regime. He noted that Iran maintains a professional, global sabotage capability and external assets that could target U.S. and allied diplomatic facilities in Europe, Latin America, or the Gulf. According to Crocker, these asymmetric strikes could continue long after the primary kinetic air war has concluded, making U.S. personnel abroad vulnerable to long-term retaliation.
The Limits of Air Power and Diplomatic Openings
The veteran diplomat warned that the U.S. might be repeating historical mistakes by assuming air power alone can dictate a political outcome. He cited the “Libyan example,” where the U.S. achieved regime change from the air but had no capacity to shape or control the subsequent ground reality. Crocker noted that while President Trump has avoided a ground buildup, this leaves the U.S. with few instruments to influence the “day after” in Tehran.
“How much can you do from the air alone?” Crocker asked. “You can do a lot militarily. We’re showing that. But do you affect regime change that way? Very debatable.”
Despite these risks, Crocker argued that the U.S. should not shy away from the diplomatic openings created by its current military advantage. He suggested that if a new power center emerges in Tehran, the U.S. should immediately put clear demands on the table regarding human rights and the treatment of the Iranian population. He maintained that the U.S. must use its “strong horse” position to set the terms for future stability before the situation spirals out of control.
Crocker concluded by urging journalists to maintain “mental agility,” noting that in a conflict defined by “unknowable scenarios,” the true story of the coming months will be found in the forces the U.S. has set in motion but cannot yet identify.
