Iran-aligned armed factions have expanded their strikes against U.S. interests in Iraq in a way that suggests they are not “abiding by” the Iraqi government’s decision to stay out of the war unfolding in the region.
In recent days, these factions have carried out multiple attacks targeting facilities belonging to the international coalition, the U.S. consulate in Erbil, oil companies, and Gulf countries, despite efforts by Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani’s government to rein in these groups.
The current scene points to a struggle by the Iraqi government to demonstrate its ability to control the internal situation and prevent its territory from turning into an arena for settling international scores.
Baghdad understands that continued shelling of diplomatic missions or attacks on neighboring countries would place it in direct confrontation with the international community and threaten the economic stability whose early signs have recently begun to emerge. To avoid embarrassment both domestically and internationally, the government has taken a series of measures to control the situation.
Among these measures is the pursuit of any group launching rockets, as well as individuals or entities attempting to drag Iraq into a regional war—something that indicates the possibility of a confrontation with these factions.
An official in the Iraqi prime minister’s office told Alhurra, speaking on condition of anonymity: “We are working to spare Iraq from war, and everyone must comply with that.”
According to the official, any party acting outside the will of the state will be treated as “outside the law, and it will clash with the state and will not be spared any measure.”
The armed factions frame their operations through rhetoric that links them to a “duty of faith” or “defense of sovereignty” against “foreign interference,” creating a deep gap between the vision of the commander-in-chief of the armed forces and that of the leaders of these factions.
This divergence raises concerns about the possibility of a “field confrontation,” especially when official security forces move to dismantle rocket launch platforms or arrest individuals involved in uncoordinated attacks.
Ma’an al-Jubouri, a former adviser at Iraq’s Ministry of Defense, said that “Iraqi forces can engage with factions targeting diplomatic missions and the international coalition, provided there is political will.”
Speaking to Alhurra, he described factions that “threaten” the government as “terrorist.” He added: “Government action against the factions should not be considered a threat but a constitutional and moral duty. Any weapon outside state control is terrorist, and if factions clash with the armed forces and security services, they must be treated as terrorism.”
At the same time, the Iraqi state does not want to enter a war of internal attrition that could undermine its very existence. The factions also understand that a full confrontation with the military institution would strip them of the legal and political cover provided by their integration into the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF).
In recent days, Iraqi security forces have seized several rocket launch platforms that were prepared to fire at multiple targets, but this has not prevented factions from continuing to target U.S. interests in Iraq.
Security expert Sarmad al-Bayati told Alhurra that “the Iraqi government is capable of confronting any party, but I do not believe a clash will occur at the present time.”
Al-Bayati favors “understandings” between the government and the factions over any military confrontation.
He added: “We have 100 members of parliament from the factions or close to them, and they can be persuaded to spare Iraq from war.”
The Iraqi government is betting on patience and intelligence work to contain movements it describes as “outside the law,” while the factions are maneuvering to remain within the circle of influence without sliding into a bone-breaking confrontation.
On the day Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was assassinated, hundreds of supporters of Kataib Hezbollah demonstrated at the walls of the Green Zone in an attempt to storm the U.S. embassy. During unarmed clashes with security forces, one individual fired gunshots toward security personnel.
Political analyst Hamza Mustafa expects that a scenario of confrontation between Iraqi forces and the armed factions could occur.
He told Alhurra: “This scenario could happen, because the rules of engagement here are not clear. Didn’t a clash occur on the Suspension Bridge a few days ago? Didn’t it also happen previously during the Green Zone events in 2022?”
In their press statements, the factions hint at the presence of “agents,” “government leniency,” and “submission” to American will. They therefore see the current Iraqi government as not aligned with their objective of entering the war and thus find themselves in continuous confrontation with it—if not militarily, then politically.
The article is a translation of the original Arabic.
Mustafa Saadoon
Mustafa Saadoon is an Iraqi journalist who has worked for several international and Arab media organizations. He covers politics and human rights.
