Gulf states are closely watching the temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran after Pakistan helped broker a truce. The move follows more than five weeks of military operations that extended into the Gulf and resulted in a complex crisis affecting energy markets, supply chains and the cost of living.
In this context, Gulf states view the truce as a step to contain escalation, not a lasting resolution. Experts in the region told Alhurra the current de-escalation amounts to an operational pause more than a strategic transformation. Although it has helped relieve pressure on energy markets and limit disruptions to trade, especially through the Strait of Hormuz, core sources of risk remain unaddressed.
Historically, relations between Iran and Gulf countries have not experienced sustained stability. Since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, ties have been marked by persistent tension, driven by unresolved disputes, including the conflict between Iran and the United Arab Emirates over the islands of Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb and Abu Musa, as well as ongoing tensions with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states.
In contrast, Oman has represented a relative exception, maintaining more stable relations with Tehran compared with other Gulf countries. In 2023, a China-brokered agreement in Beijing helped restore ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran after years of estrangement.
During the current crisis, Gulf states condemned Iranian attacks targeting their territories and facilities and stressed their rejection of escalation and its implications for regional security. In recent days, contacts have taken place between Tehran and several Gulf capitals, during which Saudi and Qatari officials emphasized the priority of a diplomatic track in addressing the crisis.
Salem Al-Yami, a former adviser at the Saudi Foreign Ministry, said several Gulf countries welcomed the suspension of military strikes between Washington and Tehran for two weeks and expressed appreciation for Pakistan’s mediation efforts, hoping the temporary calm could evolve into a more sustainable peace. He added that the fluid balance of power in the region is pushing Gulf states to protect their interests and avoid aligning with any single party.
Al-Yami said the development does not amount to a final settlement but rather a “suspension of military operations” with an inherently temporary nature. In his view, Gulf states have succeeded in avoiding attempts to draw them into direct involvement in the conflict, while retaining a potential role in any future negotiation process shaping the next phase.
In this context, analyst Ayed Al-Manaa said the priority for Gulf Cooperation Council countries is to safeguard internal security and stability, ensure continued economic activity and secure navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for oil and gas exports and global trade. From this perspective, their objective remains the establishment of sustainable regional stability.
He added that the current truce, despite its temporary nature, may reflect a degree of Iranian reassessment following recent strikes. However, its continuation depends on the trajectory of U.S.-Iran relations and the ability of both sides to sustain de-escalation. He warned that any new Israeli escalation could trigger an Iranian response and a supportive U.S. intervention, potentially reigniting tensions and directly affecting Gulf states, making de-escalation a strategic priority.
However, former Kuwaiti Information Minister Sami Al-Nisf said this does not indicate a long-term strategic shift in relations with Iran. He noted that developments after Feb. 28 demonstrated to Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia and Qatar, that Tehran cannot be fully trusted, as the scope of targeting expanded beyond any single country. He added that Saudi Arabia and Oman, despite not hosting U.S. bases, were not immune from threats, reinforcing his view that the current situation represents a tactical measure to contain tensions rather than a lasting strategic change.
Al-Nisf also said the current de-escalation differs from previous U.S.-led mediation efforts, as Pakistan is serving as the intermediary this time and lacks the same level of influence over both parties. He added that the balance of pressure remains uneven as long as the United States conducts strikes without incurring direct costs on its own territory or vital interests, such as military or economic losses from downed aircraft or targeted tankers. This reduces the pressure that might otherwise compel Washington to make concessions.
Over roughly 40 days of operations, the United States said it struck more than 12,000 targets inside Iran and reduced the rate of Iranian missile launches by more than 90%. However, this does not necessarily mean Iran’s military capabilities have been fully degraded. Expert assessments indicate that Iran still possesses mobile launch platforms that are difficult to track, leaving part of its missile capability beyond direct control. The announcement of a two-week truce came at a moment when the level of conflict in the region had reached its peak.
The U.S. president hailed the agreement as a “complete victory,” giving Iran a set timeframe while leaving open the possibility of future strikes on its infrastructure. He stressed that U.S. forces would remain in the region to enforce any agreement. Tehran, however, claimed the truce as a “strategic victory,” citing comments by First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref carried by Tasnim News Agency.
The U.S. military, however, offered a more cautious assessment. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine said the development amounts to a temporary truce and that U.S. forces remain at full readiness to resume operations if necessary. Washington stressed that its forces would remain deployed around Iran until full compliance with the agreement is achieved, warning that fighting could resume “bigger and stronger” if it collapses. The truce has also been tied to guarantees related to keeping the Strait of Hormuz open and preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons—issues that remain unresolved.
This phase is expected to be followed by direct negotiations in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad. The U.S. delegation will be led by Vice President JD Vance, with participation from Jared Kushner and envoy Steve Witkoff. Meetings are scheduled for the weekend in a move that reflects a tactical shift from battlefield confrontation to a negotiation track, without necessarily signaling a fundamental change in the nature of the conflict.
The article is a translation of the original Arabic.
Sakina Abdallah
A Saudi writer, researcher, and TV presenter
