Lebanese officials are cautiously optimistic that this week’s US-Iran memorandum of understanding could create momentum for a renewed ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel, even as Israeli strikes against Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon continue.
A source at Lebanon’s presidential palace told Alhurra that hopes for a new truce remain alive despite the continued violence, adding that President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam are maintaining diplomatic efforts to secure a halt to hostilities.
The official, who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the discussions, said Beirut hoped Lebanon’s inclusion in the US-Iran memorandum of understanding would provide additional political backing for efforts to consolidate the ceasefire and end military operations.
However, the source stressed that negotiations between Lebanon and Israel remain separate from the broader US-Iran track, even if an agreement between Washington and Tehran creates a more favourable diplomatic environment.
For several weeks, Lebanon and Israel have been engaged in US-mediated direct talks aimed at ending fighting along the southern border. While the two sides have reached a series of tactical understandings, clashes have continued.
On the ground, developments remain far more complex than the diplomatic optimism that followed this week’s announcement of the US-Iran understanding. Tehran has argued that any ceasefire should extend to Lebanon and that a lasting agreement must include a full Israeli withdrawal. Israel, meanwhile, has continued air strikes in southern Lebanon while reporting interceptions of Hezbollah projectiles fired towards its forces operating inside Lebanese territory.
So far, the diplomatic breakthrough has had little visible impact in southern Lebanon. Israeli military operations continue, and the return of displaced residents remains dependent on security conditions rather than political declarations.
Retired Brigadier General Naji Malaeb, a Lebanese strategic affairs analyst, said Israel’s interpretation of a ceasefire has repeatedly differed from conventional expectations.
“The recent wars between Hezbollah and Israel have shown that, from Israel’s perspective, a ceasefire does not necessarily mean a complete halt to military operations,” he told Alhurra.
Lebanon and Israel reached a ceasefire agreement in November 2024 that ended nearly two months of large-scale fighting. The deal called for Israeli forces to withdraw, the Lebanese army to redeploy south of the Litani River, and the establishment of an international mechanism to monitor compliance.
Yet Malaeb noted that Israel continued conducting air strikes against Hezbollah operatives after the agreement, even though large-scale ground operations ceased. Lebanon, he argued, may again be entering a period in which a political ceasefire coexists with limited military action.
Israeli officials have reinforced that perception. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has said Israeli forces will remain in parts of southern Lebanon indefinitely, insisting that those areas should remain uninhabited while Israel continues dismantling what it describes as Hezbollah infrastructure.
Political analyst Youssef Diab said Israel’s continued presence both south and north of the Litani River leaves Hezbollah facing a difficult choice.
The group can either treat the Israeli deployment as an occupation requiring renewed military action or leave the issue to the Lebanese state and ongoing diplomatic negotiations, he said.
A return to armed confrontation would likely trigger a broader Israeli response, while restraint would require Hezbollah—at least temporarily—to accept a political and security process over which it no longer exercises exclusive control.
Following the announcement that Lebanon was included in the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, some displaced families began returning to their towns and villages, while others chose to wait.
Lebanese officials urged residents not to rush back, and the Lebanese army instructed civilians to follow the guidance of military units deployed in border communities.
Security concerns are only one obstacle to returning home. Israel still controls several areas in southern Lebanon, while the conflict has left widespread destruction of homes, infrastructure and essential public services.
Despite the attention surrounding the US-Iran understanding, Lebanese officials do not view it as the decisive framework for determining the future of the conflict.
President Joseph Aoun insisted that negotiations remain the exclusive responsibility of the Lebanese state.
“The Lebanese state is conducting the negotiations and is sovereign in its decisions. No one will negotiate on its behalf, and any settlement will be achieved through us, not at our expense,” he said. He added that Lebanon supports a ceasefire and welcomes assistance from any country, including Iran.
Political analyst George al-Akouri said dialogue between Washington and Tehran could help reduce tensions but cannot replace the existing negotiating track between Lebanon and Israel.
“The US administration already views Lebanon as being under a ceasefire,” he told Alhurra. “Military operations may decline, but it is still too early to speak of a complete end to the war.”
Much will depend on how the US-Iran memorandum is implemented after its expected formal signing on Friday and whether political commitments can be translated into lasting calm along Lebanon’s southern border.
Hezbollah’s weapons remain the most contentious issue in any future settlement.
Although the group welcomed the US-Iran understanding, it reiterated its commitment to what it described as Lebanon’s right to defend its territory until Israel fully withdraws and Lebanese prisoners are released.
At the same time, Hezbollah continues to reject calls to surrender its arsenal despite a Lebanese government decision that all weapons should be placed under exclusive state control and growing international pressure to implement that policy.
Malaeb argued that Hezbollah’s arsenal can no longer be separated from any future political settlement.
“Restricting arms to the state is no longer simply an international demand,” he said. “It has become an official Lebanese decision.”
Whether the US-Iran understanding produces tangible change will ultimately depend on developments after Friday’s signing and, more importantly, on whether it can deliver genuine de-escalation in southern Lebanon without overshadowing the parallel negotiations between Beirut and Israel.
Adapted and translated from the original Arabic.
