Welcome back to the MBN Agenda. You can read it in Arabic here, and check out MBN’s flagship Arabic-language Alhurra news platform (also in English). If the MBN Agenda was forwarded to you, please subscribe.
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun journeyed to Washington over the weekend hoping to convince President Donald Trump to push Israel to withdraw from southern Lebanon. His bid for help suggests that Aoun is concerned that the U.S.-backed plan to kickstart that process, as negotiated with Lebanon and Israel, might be asking too much of Beirut. Lebanese military sources and Aoun have indicated wariness that the Lebanese army could be forced into a confrontation with Hezbollah if it follows the plan to take over the southern Lebanon “pilot zones,” now under Israel’s control. The Iranian proxy is unlikely to go quietly, raising a risk of broader civil conflict in the country.
Meanwhile, Trump is set on punishing Iran for breaching the memorandum of understanding and for the recent deaths of more U.S. soldiers, a White House official told MBN, even as talks on a new ceasefire agreement continue.
Also this week: Despite Aoun’s concerns, Washington is betting the “pilot zone” deal can survive and throttle Iran’s influence in Lebanon, even if U.S. hostilities with Iran escalate back into full-blown war. In a visit to Washington last week, Iraq’s new prime minister promised Trump he could bring Iran-backed militias in his country under state control, too. Tehran, for its part, is pressing Baghdad not to drift too far into Washington’s orbit, as the locus of power inside Iran shifts toward the Revolutionary Guards, thanks to the war and the new supreme leader’s public absence.
Joe Kawly, Mustafa Saadoon, and Leila Bazzi contributed to the Agenda this week.
Washington Signals
Lebanon at the White House
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun is welcomed by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington, D.C., July 19, 2026. (Lebanese Presidency/AFP)
Aoun arrives at the White House for the first visit to Washington by a Lebanese head of state in 17 years. He is carrying a written plan for disarming Hezbollah but also with a request that Trump do something Washington has so far declined to do: pressure Israel to withdraw from southern Lebanon before the Iranian proxies down their weapons.
The sequencing is the entire dispute. Aoun’s position, conveyed to Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the State Department on Sunday, is that Israel’s withdrawal must precede meaningful disarmament, because only after Israeli forces leave can the Lebanese army practically extend its authority into the south. Washington’s position is the reverse: disarmament must come first, because handing territory back to Lebanon before Hezbollah’s weapons are secured risks handing it back to Hezbollah.
Speaking to reporters after the meeting, Rubio called the talks “very positive” and identified Hezbollah as the “biggest problem” for Lebanon. “You have a political movement that also has an armed militia that is not just well armed and trained and equipped and financed by Iran, but they use that to conduct terrorism,” Rubio said. Hezbollah, he added, must be “defeated and replaced with a government that is strong enough to be the sole force of arms in the country,” with security resting solely with the Lebanese Armed Forces.
Rubio made no public commitment on the timing of Israel’s withdrawal. He did raise the possibility of restarting direct flights between the U.S. and Lebanon, suspended since 1985, saying “we’re going to start a process with them and see if that’s possible.” Vice President JD Vance has already signaled Washington’s frustration with Israel on this file, warning Israeli cabinet members in June: “If I were part of the Israeli government, I might reconsider attacking the only significant ally I have left in the world.” Aoun also asked for sustained financial support for the Lebanese Armed Forces, a reconstruction conference, a halt to Israeli strikes, and the release of Lebanese detainees held in Israel. Lebanese Army Commander General Rodolphe Haykal has told Aoun that the army cannot be forced into confrontation with Hezbollah in the pilot zones, warning that the price of doing so would be ‘nothing less than its division and the collapse of the institution as a whole,’ according to Lebanese military sources.
The visit is the highest-stakes moment of Aoun’s presidency and the clearest test yet of whether Washington can move both Israel and Lebanon toward implementation simultaneously. A Lebanese official told Reuters that Aoun believes Trump is uniquely placed to pressure Israel into withdrawing its troops and helping Lebanon restore its sovereignty. After Tuesday’s meeting we’ll get a first indication as to whether Trump agrees – and what he is willing to say to Netanyahu privately.
Lebanon Watch
U.S. Bets Lebanon Deal Can Survive
(L-R) Mike Huckabee, Yechiel Leiter, JD Vance, Marco Rubio, Nada Hamadeh Moawad, and Michel Issa listen to President Donald Trump during peace talks at the White House, April 23, 2026. (AFP)
Aoun’s concerns go to the heart of Washington’s major gamble in Lebanon: that Israel can withdraw from parts of the south and transfer responsibility for containing Hezbollah to the Lebanese military, even if the wider U.S.-Iran peace framework fizzles. Two days of U.S.-brokered Israeli-Lebanese talks in Rome last week ended with agreement on guidelines for the first “pilot zone,” where Israeli forces are meant to withdraw and the Lebanese army to assume control.
The arrangement is designed to separate Lebanon from any renewed war with Iran. U.S. officials hope that their continuing talks with Tehran will stop it from reactivating Hezbollah, giving Beirut time to expand its campaign to disarm the Iranian proxy group. But there’s no guarantee that will even be possible.
The deal rests on some lofty assumptions: that Hezbollah will yield to the Lebanese state’s attempts to exercise control over it; that Israel will continue withdrawing; and that a breakdown in U.S. diplomacy with Iran will not prompt Tehran to reopen the Lebanese front. None of that has been tested yet.
Exclusive
White House Says U.S. Will Keep Striking Iran – and Keep Talking Too
A fighter plane takes off, said to be, for an operation against the Yemen’s Houthis at an unidentified location in this screengrab taken from a handout video released on March 18, 2025. US CENTCOM via X/Handout via REUTERS
A White House official told MBN that President Trump is focused on making Iran pay for what the official described as its violations of the memorandum of understanding and its continued acts of terrorism in the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump also intends to hold Iran accountable for the recent deaths of U.S. soldiers, the official added, even as negotiations go on over a new ceasefire.
“These devastating blows will continue until the president deems otherwise, but talks between our countries are continuing,” the official said.
Iraq Watch
Washington Sets Its Terms for Iraq’s New Leader
U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hands with Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi as they participate in a bilateral meeting in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., July 14, 2026. REUTERS/Evan Vucci TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY.
Lebanon is not the only place the Trump administration has recently become laser-focused on Iranian violations of sovereignty.
During Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s visit to Washington last week, Trump demanded measurable progress in curbing Iranian influence in Baghdad, stopping attacks by Iran-backed militias and – as in Lebanon – bringing all weapons under state control. Zaidi presented Trump with what an Iraqi official described as a “final, irreversible timeline” for militia disarmament.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned that deeper cooperation depends on Baghdad asserting its sovereignty, especially as U.S. forces prepare to depart Iraq by Sept. 30. Baghdad seeks a continued supply of weapons and training, but also private American investment. Zaidi summarized his objective succinctly: “U.S. forces will be out of Iraq. U.S. companies will be inside Iraq.”
Zaidi, who took office in May, is pursuing major energy deals with Chevron and Halliburton, new export routes through Turkey and Syria, and billions of dollars in international financing as it tries to reduce its dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. But the prime minister rose through a system deeply entangled with Iran-aligned factions, raising questions about whether he can actually deliver what Washington wants.
Exclusive
Iran Pressed Zaidi to Visit Tehran First
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent sit as U.S. President Donald Trump participates in a bilateral meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., July 14, 2026. REUTERS/Evan Vucci
Tehran is not pleased about Zaidi’s goals. Three sources within Iraq’s Shiite-controlled Coordination Framework, which chose Zaidi as a compromise candidate to lead the government, told MBN that Iranian officials pressed Zaidi to visit Tehran before Washington and were concerned after he met Trump first. In the 24 hours after the meeting, Iran intensified contacts with Iraqi coalition leaders, warning that Trump “wants to control you and your resources.”
The anxiety reflects Iraq’s importance as one of Iran’s last remaining regional strongholds. Tehran has spent two decades building influence through political allies, economic ties and armed factions in Iraq. Zaidi’s decision to rebuff Tehran and make the United States his first overseas trip carries implications of great concern to the Islamic Republic.
Iran has since sought to contain the fallout, arranging a highly publicized meeting between Zaidi and President Masoud Pezeshkian during the funeral of the late supreme leader, Ali Khamenei. But Iran-backed factions are already escalating their rhetoric against Washington, previewing the pressure Zaidi will face at home.
Read the full MBN exclusive here
Iran Watch
Iran’s Supreme Leader Is Missing… The Guards Are Not
Iran’s former supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, holds a rifle as he delivers the Eid al-Fitr sermon at Tehran’s Imam Khomeini Grand Mosque on November 26, 2003. Atta Kenare/AFP
In Tehran, the exercise of power has become increasingly opaque. Since Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s assassination in February and the effective invisibility since then of his son and successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has filled the vacuum and overshadowed Iran’s clerical establishment, analysts told MBN.
For decades, the rifle Khamenei held at his prayer pulpit symbolized the Islamic Republic’s fusion of religious authority and military power. But Mojtaba has not appeared publicly in photographs, video or audio since his father’s death, leaving the regime without the figure responsible for unifying its political, religious and military institutions. Clerics have appeared in military uniforms and carried rifles, but the gestures have failed to invest authority in the vanished new leader.
The result is an increasingly militarized and fragmented system. “The Revolutionary Guards have become the strongest institution and the effective center of political and military decision-making,” Saudi Al Moulla, a researcher and professor of political sociology, told MBN. President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi have provided a civilian face for Iranian diplomacy and government, but it is increasingly the rifle that commands.
Israel Watch
Why Sharia Courts Have a Place in Israel
An ultra-Orthodox man speaks to Gila Yashar of Israel’s ultra-Orthodox women’s party B’Zchutan outside a rabbinical court in Jerusalem
In a commentary for MBN, Mustafa Akyol of the Cato Institute argues Israel’s sharia courts show that Islamic law can coexist with liberal democracy when its jurisdiction is limited and its exercise does not infringe on the rights of others.
Israel’s state-run sharia courts handle personal-status matters for Muslims, including marriage, divorce, alimony and domestic violence. A legacy of Ottoman rule, under which religious communities administered their own family affairs, the system exists alongside separate courts for Jewish, Christian and Druze citizens.
Akyol argues Western debates often reduce sharia to the harsh criminal punishments enforced by regimes such as Iran and Afghanistan, overlooking its potential roles in family law, commerce and individual religious practice. Israel’s courts demonstrate how elements of Islamic law can be accommodated within a modern state without establishing Islamist rule, he writes.
Quote of the day
Aoun’s Washington visit is unlikely to produce an immediate peace deal but could mark a historic step toward future Lebanon-Israel normalization and stronger Lebanese state sovereignty.
Former U.S. Ambassador to Tunisia Joey Hood, Pulse In DC, July 17, 2026.
