Days before Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Riyadh said it had come under drone attacks on Monday and Tuesday by drones launched from Iraq by Iran-backed militias.
Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Ministry condemned the attacks “in the strongest terms,” while the Ministry of Defense said the kingdom “reserves the right to respond at the appropriate time and place.”
Following Monday’s attack, al-Zaidi ordered the formation of an investigative committee comprising representatives from the Ministries of Defense and Interior and the Iraqi Intelligence Service, stressing that Iraq “will not allow its territory to be used as a launching pad for attacks against neighboring countries.”
Iraqi authorities also asked Riyadh to share available technical evidence, including surveillance imagery, drone flight-path data and debris recovered from intercepted aircraft, and offered to participate in a joint investigation.
The latest incidents are not the first. On May 17, Saudi Arabia said it had intercepted three drones approaching from Iraqi airspace that were targeting oil facilities. Baghdad, however, said at the time that its air defense systems had detected no drone launches from within Iraqi territory.
Sources told MBN that Saudi officials, during a July meeting in Riyadh, presented an Iraqi delegation with flight-path data indicating that drones used in previous attacks had been launched from locations inside Iraq close to the Saudi border.
Al-Zaidi is expected to assure Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman during his visit to Saudi Arabia this Thursday that Iraq will not allow its territory to be used to target Saudi Arabia or any other Arab country, according to sources familiar with the matter who spoke to MBN.
Despite Baghdad’s assurances, Saudi Arabia is looking for more concrete measures to curb threats against its territory, particularly attacks targeting oil facilities that underpin the kingdom’s economy, analysts say.
Former Saudi Foreign Ministry adviser Salem Al-Yami told MBN that all response options remain on the table, “including military action if the attacks continue and the Iraqi government proves unable to control the factions responsible.”
He stressed, however, that such a response would not amount to a confrontation with the Iraqi state, citing the strong bilateral relationship and Riyadh’s recognition that Baghdad is not the adversary and should not bear sole responsibility for armed groups operating beyond its authority.
“If there is a response,” Al-Yami said, “it would most likely be limited and targeted against these groups, their leaders or their camps, rather than a broad military operation inside Iraq.” He added that the likelihood of such a scenario remains “very low.”
In May, Reuters reported, citing its own sources, that Saudi warplanes had struck targets linked to powerful Iran-aligned armed groups in Iraq.
A Western official and a source familiar with the matter told Reuters that Saudi Air Force fighter jets carried out strikes against those groups near the kingdom’s northern border with Iraq.
During the July meeting, Saudi officials told their Iraqi counterparts that Riyadh was monitoring the deployment of units from Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces in the desert areas of Najaf and Muthanna provinces bordering Saudi Arabia and sought assurances that the formations would be redeployed away from the frontier.
Retired Major General Mohammed Al-Qubayban, a military affairs expert, said Saudi Arabia was unlikely to resort to military action as long as political and diplomatic channels remained viable. He said al-Zaidi’s visit could help produce an understanding of measures needed to prevent further attacks.
The defensive options, Al-Qubayban told MBN, include establishing military observation posts along the border and deploying advanced surveillance systems and drones to detect and respond to emerging threats.
Al-Yami, meanwhile, questioned whether support for Baghdad alone would be sufficient to halt the attacks.
“External support for the Iraqi government will not outweigh the influence that weapons give these factions,” he said, arguing that Saudi Arabia’s strategy should extend beyond backing al-Zaidi’s government.
Alongside coordination with Baghdad, he said, the kingdom can strengthen its domestic defense capabilities, deepen Gulf security cooperation, build partnerships with regional and international powers, and further develop its military, protective and security capabilities.
Al-Zaidi’s government has announced a plan to place all weapons under state control. Two Iran-linked factions—Asaib Ahl al-Haq and the Imam Ali Brigades, both designated by the United States as terrorist organizations—have responded positively to the initiative. Other factions, most notably Kataib Hezbollah, continue to reject disarmament, insisting that any such move must await the withdrawal of the U.S.-led international coalition from Iraq, which is scheduled for September.
Writer Idris Al-Drees argues that any Saudi strategy must address the root of the problem. He doubts that efforts to disarm Iraqi factions can succeed as long as they maintain close ties with Tehran. Instead, he says, what is needed is “a candid diplomatic confrontation with Iran,” which he argues directs both Iraqi militias and the Houthis as instruments of its regional strategy.
Adapted and translated from the original Arabic.
