China is seeking a bigger voice in shaping the future of Middle East security as governments across the region reassess their strategic ties with the United States in the wake of the war with Iran.
Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday laid out a four-point vision for a new regional security architecture, calling on Middle Eastern countries to take greater responsibility for their own security, reject outside interference, address the Palestinian issue and promote development and international cooperation.
But U.S. experts say Beijing’s proposal falls well short, at least for now, of offering an alternative to the U.S.-led security order. Instead, they say, it reflects an effort by China to cast itself as a diplomatic and economic partner that gives regional governments more room to maneuver — without shouldering security commitments comparable to those borne by Washington.
The Chinese initiative followed a rare visit by Xi to Cairo, his first in a decade, as part of a broader push by Beijing to expand its political and diplomatic presence in the region.
The trip was preceded by similar diplomatic outreach. Jordan’s King Abdullah II visited Beijing in late August and met Xi, who called for a “diplomatic solution” to the Middle East crisis and stressed the need to respect the sovereignty of countries in the region.
Aaron Glasserman, a fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis, said Beijing’s four-point agenda “is not really a proposal for anything concrete.”
Rather, he said, it is a way for China to portray itself rhetorically as a constructive partner for Middle Eastern countries while drawing a contrast with the United States.
The United States is viewed in parts of the region as an “unreliable” partner that is “unconstrained by international norms and international law,” giving China an opportunity to present itself as a different kind of power, Glasserman told Alhurra.
He said Beijing’s motivations in the Middle East are driven largely by its economic interests.
For decades, Middle Eastern countries — particularly the Gulf states — have relied on the United States as their principal security partner in confronting regional threats, chief among them Iran, as well as missile and drone threats and risks to shipping lanes and energy supplies.
That partnership is underpinned by a broad U.S. military presence in the region, defense agreements and security cooperation, as well as arms sales, joint military exercises and intelligence sharing.
Gulf states including Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia provide important military facilities and access to U.S. forces. Qatar hosts Al Udeid Air Base, one of the most important hubs for U.S. military operations in the region.
The United States also maintains close security relationships with countries beyond the Gulf. Jordan is a key U.S. partner in counterterrorism and border security and hosts American troops and military facilities, while Egypt receives about $1.3 billion in U.S. military assistance annually.
China, by contrast, has so far offered no comparable security commitments.
Beijing is “not so much offering a different vision of the regional order as it is giving countries in the region an escape from the conditions that come with American patronage,” said John Calabrese, a professor of international relations at American University in Washington.
He told Alhurra that China’s offer amounts to “economic and diplomatic partnership without conditions related to governance, mediation without entanglement in alliances, and rhetorical solidarity against external bullying at little cost to China.”
Calabrese said that approach gives regional governments greater room to maneuver between major powers and promote diplomatic multipolarity. But it does not mean China is prepared to assume a security role comparable to that of the United States. The Chinese proposal, he said, “does not rise to the level of a competing security order” because Beijing lacks both the willingness and the capabilities needed to underpin such a system.
For now, Beijing may not need to displace the United States in the Middle East to achieve its goals. Giving countries in the region greater scope to diversify their relationships among Washington, Beijing and other powers allows China to expand its economic and diplomatic footprint without taking on sweeping security commitments.
“China is less interested in shaping the regional balance of power than in ensuring that whatever balance ultimately emerges allows it to continue benefiting economically,” Glasserman said.
Beijing’s interests in the region are “primarily economic,” he added, encompassing energy, trade and investment. China’s priority is to preserve and expand those interests despite the current conflict, Glasserman said.
