Welcome back to the MBN Iran Briefing. You can read it in Arabic here, and check out MBN’s flagship Arabic-language Alhurra news platform (also in English). If you were forwarded the MBN Iran Briefing, please subscribe.
This week’s edition of the briefing is a joint effort by our new Iran reporter Tara Rad, who is writing under a pseudonym, and myself.
Here’s what you need to know this week. The Iranians fired missiles at a U.S. aircraft carrier over the weekend, and the U.S. destroyed an Iranian tanker in response. Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf vowed an even “faster, heavier, and more painful” response next time. Iran has declared a new restricted zone around Hormuz and soured on the mediators who brokered the ceasefire.
Former president Rouhani took a swipe at state television, and U.S. sanctions are now affecting even the English-language exams Iranian students need to study abroad.
Share your thoughts, analysis, and predictions with me at ailves@mbn-news.com.
And don’t forget to check out the latest Iran Briefing podcast. In this edition I’m joined by Alex Grinberg, Iran expert at the Turan Center and the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, and Mehdi Yahyanejad, internet freedom activist and founder of Persian-language discussion platform Balatarin. We take up the issue of where Iran’s real online conversations actually happen now that the old public square has splintered, why the IRGC has lost its grip on the online narrative even as it clings to power, and why most Iranians want the regime gone but may not be willing to pay the high price it would take to make it happen.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
I don’t watch [state television] at all. When I see it, it gets on my nerves.
—Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian
TOP OF THE NEWS
1. The War Escalates at Sea
On Sunday, Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf announced that, “From now on, any attack against Iran’s interests and security will receive a faster, heavier and more painful response.”
Whether Iran follows through on this pledge will determine how much worse the conflict gets. Saturday brought the latest escalation, when Iran’s Revolutionary Guard fired ballistic missiles at a U.S. aircraft carrier and destroyer in the Gulf. Both ships managed to neutralize the threats, according to CENTCOM.
U.S. forces responded by disabling two Iranian oil tankers and destroying a third. CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper said the U.S. “will not hesitate to defend American forces, and if necessary, destroy Iran’s limited and exposed oil fleet.”
Tehran says its navy struck three “U.S.-linked” vessels in retaliation. According to Ghalibaf, addressing parliament Sunday, “the rules of the game have changed” for the U.S.
Two things to watch for: whether Iran strikes U.S. or allied shipping again this week, and whether Washington acts on threats against Iran’s remaining tankers.
2. Iran Claims Sole Control Over Hormuz
A newly announced restricted zone will extend from the U.S. Navy’s blockade line into the Persian Gulf, according to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, in an interview with state TV on Sunday.
“Any ship that enters this area with the intention of passing through the Strait of Hormuz and is identified will be placed on our sanctions list,” he said.
Rezaei expressed disappointment with the three countries that earlier mediated between Iran and the U.S.: “We had trusted our friends in Pakistan, Qatar or Oman, thinking that since they had stepped in as mediators, one of a mediator’s responsibilities is that if one side violates the agreement, they should stop them.”
Instead, Iran is now pursuing “diplomacy with guarantees.” Rezaei said that the “maps of a new international corridor which lies in Iranian and Omani waters and in which Iran will have management have been agreed and should be signed in the coming days.”
Watch whether Iran follows through on Rezaei’s announced plans for a new zone and corridor.
A man uses an ATM from Bank Mellat in Tehran on Monday. Photo: AFP.
3. Tehran Admits What the Rial Already Showed
In another admission of how the war has hit Iran’s economy, Ghalibaf said that Iran’s central battle (aside from the military conflict) is now over production and people’s livelihoods. He cited currency swings, inflation, unemployment and market mismanagement as the country’s core challenges.
Then there is the dollar. Although the official exchange rate issued by the central bank of Iran on Monday put the dollar at 1,614,668 rials, the black market rates put it at over 2.2 million, breaking records. Central bank governor Abdolnaser Hemmati has said the bank will intervene in the foreign exchange market when necessary. As I reported in this briefing earlier, the bank is ready to supply two billion dollars in foreign exchange to the market.
Four things to watch for: any further pronouncements about the dire state of Iran’s economy, any concrete relief measures, changes in the rial exchange rate, and any possible interventions by the central bank.
ALSO COMING UP
Cryptocurrency. Parliament has agreed to fast-track legislation targeting the unauthorized use of electricity for crypto mining. Illegal cryptocurrency mining is straining Iran’s power grid. Much of it is run by foreign operators, Chinese firms prominent among them, who are drawn by electricity that is among the cheapest in the world. It’s also a way to earn bitcoin that bypasses Iran’s sanctioned banking system.
Officials say more than 13,000 illegal mining farms have been identified, consuming an estimated 3,750 megawatts — roughly equivalent to the consumption of four provinces and about 8% of household electricity use. The annual economic damage has been estimated at around $2.5 billion. With Iran’s electricity network already under pressure, this is more than just a crypto story.
The empty chair of Iran’s ambassador is seen prior to the meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors at the agency’s headquarters in Vienna, Austria on Monday. Photo: AFP
IAEA. The IAEA Board of Governors meets in Vienna this week. The United States, Britain, France and Germany are backing a draft resolution calling on the board to report Iran to the UN Security Council over its nuclear activities and lack of cooperation with the agency.
This will be watched not only by Iranian officials and financial markets, but also by bazaaris and ordinary shop owners. The return of the issue to the international agenda might rattle the jittery Iranian economy by putting additional pressure on the rial.
Woman, Life, Freedom anniversary. Sept. 16 marks the fourth anniversary of the death of Mahsa Jina Amini, the young Kurdish woman who died after being detained by Iran’s so-called morality police in 2022, triggering the Woman, Life, Freedom protests.
Previous anniversaries have brought calls for protests and strikes, particularly in Kurdish areas, along with heightened security measures. So far this year, there is no sign of a broad, coordinated call for protests. But Sept. 16 is still more than a week away, and that could change.
IN OTHER NEWS
A man watching Iranian state TV. Photo: AFP.
Who Still Watches State Television? Not Presidents.
Former president Hassan Rouhani has taken aim at Iran’s state broadcaster IRIB, basically asking: Who still has the patience – or the nerves – to watch it?
Rouhani said that the network should become genuinely “national” rather than remain the voice of a small group. He did not clarify whom he meant. This style of indirect criticism is a way to send a political message to an opponent while avoiding confrontation by not naming or pointing fingers. Judging by previous articles from the Rouhani camp, it would appear that he is referring to the Jebhe-ye Paydari, an important hardline conservative Islamist political movement whose patron is supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei. It is strongly opposed to negotiation with the United States.
Referring to recent calls for greater national unity, Rouhani asked why the broadcaster has still not changed — noting that President Masoud Pezeshkian last week himself claimed that he does not watch state television, saying that it gets on his nerves.
The response was not long in coming. An IRIB presenter attacked Rouhani for two of his signature policies: price rises for gasoline and the perceived failure of his nuclear deal with the U.S.
Rouhani is not alone with his doubts about the state broadcaster. The IRIB’s current head, Peyman Jebelli, is approaching the end of his five-year term. Jebelli recently said he does not know whether he will stay, since that decision rests with the Supreme Leader.
In short: A former president is criticizing state television, the sitting president says he doesn’t watch it, and the broadcaster’s own boss is unsure whether he will still have the job. Not a comfortable moment for IRIB.
Young people visit a bookshop in Tehran on Monday. Photo: AFP.
Sanctions and the Owl
The latest tightening of U.S. sanctions has reached an unlikely corner of life for Iranians: the English-language tests many students need to pass in order to apply to universities abroad.
The change followed the U.S. Treasury’s decision on Aug. 24 to suspend General License G, an exemption dating back to 2014 that had permitted certain academic exchanges and educational services involving Iran. ETS — Educational Testing Service, the nonprofit that develops and administers major standardized tests — subsequently stopped administering tests such as the TOEFL and the GRE inside Iran.
Duolingo and its famous trademark green owl have also taken a hit. The latest sanctions have also cut off access to its English test, previously used for certification purposes.
For Iranian applicants, this has produced plenty of confusion and frustration. On social media, people have been comparing alternatives and trying to figure out whether they can take an exam in a neighboring country, what identification they can use and, for some, whether months of preparation have suddenly gone to waste.
International language tests have long been part of the route out for Iranians hoping to study abroad. Duolingo had become particularly useful because it was cheaper and online. ETS says Iranians can still take TOEFL and GRE outside the country. But that means travel, more money and, in some cases, another visa – all before the university application even begins.
A Café Owner, 12 Years in Prison
Iran’s Supreme Court has upheld a sentence of 12 years, six months and one day for businessman and café owner Sadegh Saedinia. His movable and immovable property will also be confiscated, and he faces a two-year ban on working in the café business.
His case grew out of the protests that began last December. Prosecutors accused him of using his social-media accounts to support protest calls, closing businesses in connection with strikes, and encouraging employees to take part in demonstrations. Saedinia denied some of the allegations, including that closing his businesses was intended as an act against the state.
His cafés were later sealed. Now the Supreme Court has upheld the lower court’s sentence.
Saedinia, who comes from a prominent business family in Qom, is known primarily as a businessman, not a political activist. He is part of the second generation of the family business and has also been involved in expanding the Saedinia café chain. Now he has been ruined. His case once again shows how the response to the protests has reached beyond political activists to business owners accused of backing demonstrations or strikes.
