Satellite imagery showed a black smoke plume at Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline after being attacked on Thursday, prompting the kingdom to shut the line down. A senior Saudi official told The Wall Street Journal that the attacks originated from Iraq.
The timing could hardly be worse. Along with threatening ships in the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint, striking gas fields and energy pipelines has become one of Iran’s primary means to pressure Washington and the region economically.
“Iranian strategists understand that they cannot challenge the U.S. military in a traditional way,” according to Gawdat Bahgat, a professor of national security affairs at the U.S. National Defense University. “In order to force the Trump administration to end the war, Iran is trying to increase economic pressure by interrupting oil and gas supplies from the Persian Gulf.”
“By attacking economic and energy infrastructure in the GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] states, these US allies will increase their pressure on Washington to stop the war,” Bahgat said.
Iran’s pressure campaign has focused on closing the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that transports around one-fifth of the world’s total oil supplies.
Gulf states have responded by relying more on pipelines to transport crude, but these too have come under attack — from Iran directly, and from Iran-aligned proxies like the Houthis, a designated terrorist organization by the United States .
Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline runs roughly 1,200 kilometers from Saudi’s Abqaiq facilities on the Persian Gulf to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. In April, Iran directly attacked the pipeline’s infrastructure, including a pumping station and several production facilities, slashing Saudi’s production by 700,000 barrels a day.
“There are several vulnerability points to pipelines, pipeline integrity, hubs, and interchange terminals that are also susceptible to cascade failures,” Farzin Nadini, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said.
“In terms of the Saudi pipeline, which travels across the Saudi Arabian desert, there are eleven pumping stations. They’re very vulnerable, very known locations, vulnerable to both drones and also ballistic missiles.”
The United Arab Emirates’ pipeline infrastructure has also sustained damage from Iranian attacks since joint U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran in late February.
The combined pressure on the Strait and regional energy infrastructure is key to the Iranian strategy.
“The Iranians believe time is on their side and that this strategy is working and that the Trump administration is facing increasing pressure both domestically and internationally,” Bahgat said.
Iraq’s Defense Dilemma
At Khor Mor, one of Iraqi Kurdistan’s biggest gas fields, repeated drone strikes have raised questions about a lack of air defense at the site.
The field has been subjected to drone and missile attacks launched by Iraqi militias loyal to Iran.
Three lines branch out from Khor Mor: the main line to Kurdistan Region power plants, which supply 80% of the region’s electricity; a direct line to the Sulaimaniyah power station in eastern Iraq; and a line to the Iraqi national grid, feeding Baghdad and Kirkuk with about 1 million standard cubic feet of gas per day.
In anticipation of Sept. 30, the deadline for the presence of U.S. and International Coalition forces in Iraq, American forces have already begun withdrawing the Patriot and C-RAM batteries stationed in Erbil, which have played a pivotal role in intercepting Iranian missiles over the past few months.
Iraqi Kurdistan is legally barred from acquiring a new air defense system without approval from Baghdad.
Iraq is attempting to strengthen its air defense system with eight South Korean Cheongung-II missile batteries and a planned 20 Turkish counter-drone systems, pairing mid-range missile defense with cheaper firepower against small drones.
But the systems provide more limited coverage. Protecting Khor Mor will likely require Baghdad to allocate a battery there.
The Iraqi government has said it plans to purchase air defense systems for the Kurdistan Region but hasn’t offered a timeframe for when that will happen.
Yerevan Saeed, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Iraq Initiative, proposed designating the Kurdistan Region a Major Non-NATO Ally for air defense — a Taiwan-style status that would let Washington arm the Peshmerga without Baghdad’s sign-off.
The package could include counter-drone systems to respond to Shahed-type threats, integrated radar, hardened command infrastructure and selective Patriot deployment at critical sites like Khor Mor.
Gulf Response and Strategy
Energy infrastructure across the Gulf is also under threat.
Carole Nakhle, CEO of Crystol Energy and a specialist in global oil and gas developments, says leaders in the region should focus on increasing the resilience of their pipelines in addition to their defense.
“Gulf countries have invested substantially in protecting critical energy infrastructure, but no system can provide complete protection, particularly for pipelines stretching hundreds of kilometers,” she said.
Even where systems exist, full coverage isn’t realistic.
“Air defense systems can obviously work for specific parts of the pipeline: pumping stations, other hubs like manifolds,” the Washington Institute’s Nadimi said. “Yes, they need to have air defense systems and counter-drone capabilities. Some of them need to be autonomously or remotely operated, because you cannot man every single one of those … many of these facilities are in remote locations. They are not manned on a daily basis.”
But Nadimi said he doesn’t believe that Iran will launch full-scale attacks on Saudi and Emirati infrastructure out of fear of the return fire.
“If Iran threatens the key oil facilities of Saudi Arabia, they will also render their own oil facilities at risk,” he said. “Iran is sitting in its own crystal palace, so they don’t throw stones at others.”
But that calculus doesn’t necessarily extend to Iranian proxies like the Houthis in Yemen, which can target the Saudi Petroline at the Yanbu terminal, Nadimi said.
“The threat can come from every direction,” he said. “And the threat will continue to be there unless there is a regime change in Iran.”
