The Trump administration says the Strait of Hormuz is now fully open to shipping and that the U.S. Navy controls the waterway after clearing Iranian mines and securing the passage of vessels not bound for Iranian ports.
Improved oil traffic through the strait, together with increased use of alternative export routes in the Gulf, suggests that Iran’s ability to disrupt its neighbors’ exports is no longer what it was at the start of the war. But recent attacks on vessels show that Tehran can still make passage through Hormuz dangerous and costly.
A senior U.S. official told MBN, speaking on condition of anonymity, that “the strait is fully open and controlled by the U.S. Navy,” adding that millions of barrels of oil pass through it each day, while the U.S. blockade prevents commercial traffic to and from Iranian ports.
The official said that after clearing the mines from the strait, the U.S. Navy expects “the transit of vessels to and from non-Iranian ports to continue to increase significantly.”
Since early May, U.S. forces have helped secure the passage of more than 800 commercial vessels carrying about 400 million barrels of crude oil through the narrow waterway, according to a statement issued by U.S. Central Command in July. The U.S. Navy is helping ships navigate a southern route, close to Oman’s coast, according to a report published by The New York Times on Tuesday.
Before the war, about 20% of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas supplies passed through the strait, at a rate of roughly 20 million barrels a day.
The critical shipping lane became a source of leverage for Tehran soon after the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran began on Feb. 28. Iranian forces significantly disrupted maritime traffic, driving up insurance and transportation costs.
There are currently no precise figures on the actual volume of oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz. But recent estimates indicate that supplies are running at about 75% of prewar levels, when more than 100 vessels crossed the strait each day.
Preliminary vessel-tracking data showed that seven ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, compared with 12 the previous day and an average of 14 over the preceding 10 days. The figures, however, do not include vessels that may have transited the strait with their Automatic Identification System transmitters switched off, making it more difficult to determine the actual volume of maritime traffic.
Iran has required ships to obtain prior authorization to transit the strait, a move opposed by Washington and several countries in the region. The United States responded by imposing a blockade on Iranian ports. It has also tightened economic sanctions on Iran and those doing business with it.
“Iran’s ability to use the Strait of Hormuz as leverage against Washington and the Gulf producers has become much weaker than it was in February,” said Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
“The Iranians have demonstrated that they can continue to disrupt maritime traffic through the strait,” he said. “But they have also shown that they cannot completely stop the flow of oil and petroleum products from the Persian Gulf.”
Saudi Arabia, the largest oil exporter in OPEC, has increasingly relied on its East-West pipeline to export oil through the Red Sea port of Yanbu, as well as by transferring shipments to the SUMED pipeline, which carries them through Egypt to the Mediterranean.
The United Arab Emirates relies on the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline to export petroleum products through its eastern coast, which lies outside the Strait of Hormuz. The UAE is currently expanding the pipeline.
The International Energy Agency estimates that Saudi Arabia and the UAE together have between 3.5 million and 5.5 million barrels per day of theoretically available capacity through routes that bypass Hormuz.
Following the improvement in oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a designated terrorist organization by the United States, said Wednesday that it had attacked two U.S. vessels, eight oil tankers and 10 ships attempting to cross the strait. It said the attacks were carried out in response to U.S. strikes Tuesday on five Iranian oil tankers.
The day after the latest Iranian attacks, oil prices rose on Thursday, with Brent crude climbing above $100 a barrel.
Washington said it destroyed five Iranian oil tankers on Tuesday. U.S. Central Command released video of the strikes, describing them as a response to attacks by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which had twice targeted a U.S. Navy warship with ballistic missiles during the preceding two days.
Adapted and translated from the original Arabic.
