Since the outbreak of the Iran war this year, Saudi Arabia has built new military alliances, deepened diplomatic engagement with Iran and diversified oil export routes to shield itself from the conflict.
Yet despite being one of the world’s richest nations, the kingdom now faces mounting threats and pressure from all sides, threatening its security and economic prosperity.
In what appears to be one of the most serious strategic crises in the kingdom’s history, Saudi allies in neighboring Yemen have suffered rapid and significant battlefield losses to its Iran-backed enemy there, the Houthis. The group, which the United States has designated as a terrorist group, now threatens Saudi territory and is in a position to choke off shipping routes through the Red Sea at the crucial Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
That prospect is all the more painful because Iran continues to block the Strait of Hormuz. Riyadh’s diplomatic outreach with Tehran has not prevented attacks on Saudi’s oil infrastructure from Iran-backed forces in Yemen to the south and Iraq to the north.
Houthi fighters celebrate territorial gains following a major offensive in western Yemen, in this image taken from video released Sept. 14, 2026 / Reuters.
The United States, the longtime principal security guarantor for Riyadh, appears reluctant to take military action against the Houthis. Regional security partners Pakistan and Turkey, tied to Riyadh in a mutual defense pact the three powers signed in Mecca last month, also appear unwilling to join the ongoing conflict.
“Saudi Arabia is facing an unprecedented strategic and economic squeeze because of the threats in both Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb,” said Anna Jacobs, a nonresident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. “Riyadh’s predicament is very serious, and they have no good options in Yemen right now.”
In recent weeks, Riyadh has faced attacks by Tehran and its Iranian militant allies. Late last month, two sailors were killed when Tehran struck a Saudi oil tanker. In a lightning offensive last week, the Iran-allied Houthis, who call themselves Ansarullah, defeated the Saudi-allied Yemeni government and overran most of the country’s southern Red Sea coast and the Islands beyond to control the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Meanwhile, an Iran-backed Iraqi militia struck the crucial pipeline that carried oil from a Saudi oil field in the east of the kingdom to export through the Red Sea in the west.
“They seem to be trying to use a combination of military actions and multiple diplomatic channels to bring the Houthis back to the negotiating table to prevent further territorial gains,” Jacobs said of frantic Saudi efforts to get a handle on the crisis.
After the Houthis seized the Yemeni capital Sanaa in 2015, Saudi Arabia led an Arab coalition seeking to restore the internationally recognized Yemeni government. But years of Saudi airstrikes, ground fighting, sanctions and blockade failed to decisively defeat the Shia group. The war exposed Riyadh’s energy infrastructure to increasingly sophisticated and devastating Houthi missile and drone attacks. Negotiations eventually turned the conflict into a tense stalemate.
Umar Karim, a Saudi foreign policy specialist at the University of Birmingham, said Riyadh has options but is exercising caution. “Whether it is ready to once again fully commit itself to a war in Yemen perhaps is not clear,” he told MBN.
To the north, Karim said, Riyadh has decided to give the Iraqi government space to control pro-Iran militias rather than attacking them. “I don’t think this status quo will remain for long,” he said.
Last week, Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif said an “unprovoked
aggression, or a spillover of whatever is happening in Yemen into Saudi Arabia, definitely the Mecca agreement will become operational.” He was referring to the mutual defense agreement signed last month in which Islamabad, Riyadh and Ankara committed themselves to collective deterrence.
Exactly how that agreement will work out on the ground is still unclear.
Asked about its applicability to Saudi Arabia’s current predicament, a spokesperson for the Pakistan Foreign Ministry said: “Any formal request will be considered in consultation with our partners in Riyadh and Ankara. The operationalization of the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, however, remains at an early stage.”
Karim pointed out that some Pakistani troops are already stationed on the border between Saudi Arabia and Yemen, but cautioned that Islamabad and Ankara still need to plan the modalities of any possible joint intervention. “Turkey probably is less inclined but still will likely support by sending its drones and advisers,” he said.
Others see the pact’s value in other than strictly military terms. “The Mecca joint defense agreement could be activated more as a diplomatic and crisis management mechanism,” Jacobs said of a scenario in which Pakistan could help in de-escalating tensions between Riyadh on the one hand and Tehran and its allies in Yemen and Iraq.
Meanwhile, global oil prices have risen about 15 percent over the past week, in part because the prospect of shipping oil out of the Middle East becomes all the harder if the Red Sea route becomes as perilous as the Strait of Hormuz.
Fatima Abo Alasrar, the founder of The Ideology Machine, a publication focused on analyzing authoritarian ideological warfare in the Middle East, sees Iran behind the Houthis because Tehran wants to shut the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, just as it has closed the Strait of Hormuz to pressure Washington and its allies.
“At a certain point, this becomes a war that they’re fighting on behalf of the international community, not just Yemen or themselves,” she told MBN. “The question is: do they want to continue doing this, or do they want to stop and have an agreement with the Houthis?”
