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In this week’s MBN Agenda: U.S. President Donald Trump heads into a decision-heavy U.N. week with Iran at the center of nearly every major meeting. Gulf leaders will press their case to Trump in New York, while Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian arrives in New York with his own terms for renewed talks. Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping is due in Washington later in the week as Trump weighs whether diplomacy can reopen Hormuz, or whether the Iran war is headed toward yet another escalation.
Elsewhere, MBN’s new Great Powers Index charts China’s growing influence across the Middle East; Beijing tests whether trade throughout the region can translate into cultural and political clout; Baghdad moves to tighten control over unannounced visits by Iranian military officials; piracy returns to the Gulf of Aden, further complicating maritime trade in the region; and Democrats challenge a $2.8 billion U.S. bomb sale to Israel.
Jim Snyder, Zhou Yu, David Gheorghiu, Mustafa Saadoon and Shaiba alhamd Abdelrahman contributed to this week’s Agenda.
Washington Signals
Decision Week
Donald Trump may spend this week testing the terms of an Iran war settlement with almost everyone except Iran itself.
The U.S. president arrives at the U.N. General Assembly in New York saying he is in “deciding mode” over the seven-month war and that “very big things” could happen soon. In unusually stark terms, Trump has publicly described his choices as reaching a deal, continuing to squeeze Tehran economically or aggressively escalating again militarily – at one point asking, “if and when do I blow the entire nation up?” He has also said he would be open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in New York.
Though no such talks have been announced, consequential diplomacy could go on in the coming days over the prospects and shape of any settlement.
On Tuesday, after addressing the U.N. General Assembly, Trump is expected to meet the leaders or representatives of all six Gulf Cooperation Council states to discuss Iran and what comes next in the war. Iraq and Jordan are now also expected to join, with Egypt also a chance of joining. The GCC member states (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates) have repeatedly warned Washington about the risks of another major escalation, particularly retaliation against their energy infrastructure, and Trump says he wants to hear directly from regional partners before deciding his next move.
Iran’s president speaks the following day. Pezeshkian is expected to address the U.N. General Assembly with an offer already forwarded to Washington: Tehran says it passed a proposal through Qatar laying out its terms for renewed negotiations, including an end to the war “on all fronts,” access to frozen Iranian funds, and a halt to the U.S. naval blockade.
Washington has not accepted those demands nor indicated that Trump plans to bypass intermediaries and sit down with Pezeshkian. The Trump administration has nevertheless left some room for diplomacy by granting visas to Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and a reduced Iranian delegation. (Though that is in line with the U.S. obligations as the U.N. host country, Washington denied a visa for a previous Iranian foreign minister in 2020, and for the second year running has blocked the delegation of the Palestinian Authority from attending the UNGA.) But visiting Iranian officials, in a curious development, will be barred from shopping without permission at wholesale clubs including Costco, Sam’s Club and BJ’s.
Then, of course, comes China.
Chinese President Xi Jinping arrives in Washington on Wednesday for a formal meeting with Trump on Thursday. Beijing has already laid out what it wants on the U.S.-Iran conflict. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met Araghchi in Beijing last week and urged both sides to return to their June interim deal, restart talks and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But China has enormous leverage as Iran’s biggest oil customer, making Xi perhaps the outside leader best positioned to tell Trump both what Tehran might accept and what Beijing could help deliver.
One familiar voice is conspicuously less central to the schedule.
Benjamin Netanyahu, who is due to speak at the U.N. building on Thursday, reportedly also sought a meeting with Trump, but none has been scheduled as of Monday. The Israeli premier may instead meet with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio once Trump is back in Washington to host Xi at the White House.
So the coming week may clarify what Trump means by an Iran war deal.
The regional governments can tell him what level of pressure and escalation they can live with. Pezeshkian arrives with Tehran’s opening terms, and the remote possibility of direct talks with Trump. Xi, meanwhile, can test whether China is willing to push Iran and the United States toward a workable compromise. The markets are already betting that diplomacy can deliver: Oil fell to an 11-day low Monday, partly on hopes of movement toward a U.S.-Iran agreement.
By the time Xi departs Washington on Friday, Trump should have a much clearer picture of whether there is enough overlap in interests between Washington and Tehran to start thinking again of an end to the war, or whether the diplomatic gap is wide enough that renewed military escalation is the more appealing option.
Quote of the day
We are hoping this war is a wake-up call for everyone. We have to act together responsibly as a region.
—Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, speaking Sunday in New York as Gulf states push for a diplomatic resolution on the Iran war.
Regional Watch
China Gains Ground in the Middle East
Chinese President Xi Jinping is welcomed by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi upon his arrival at Cairo International Airport for an official visit to Egypt, which is his first state visit to the country in 10 years, in Cairo, Egypt, September 1, 2026. REUTERS/Mohamed Abd El Ghany/Pool
China has steadily expanded its influence across the Middle East and North Africa, particularly through trade, infrastructure and technology. MBN’s new Great Powers Index, launched last week, found Beijing had closer ties than Washington with 12 of the region’s 23 countries from 2020 to 2025, up from nine a decade earlier, while China-MENA trade reached more than $510 billion last year.
“In the economic and technological realms, you’ve seen a huge explosion of Chinese influence in the region,” Aaron Glasserman of Columbia University told MBN. Iraq shows how far that shift has gone in erstwhile U.S.-leaning Middle Eastern countries: Chinese firms moved into energy and reconstruction as many American firms pulled back, pushing Iraq onto the China side of the index.
But Washington still retains powerful advantages through military relationships and the dollar-based financial system. The result is less a wholesale replacement of the United States than a Middle East with more room for two major players.
China Watch
Beijing Tries to Turn Trade into Soft Power
A man stands next to scale models of Chinese military vehicles and weapon systems displayed at the NORINCO (China North Industries Group Corporation) booth during the 13th edition of Iraq’s Defense, Security, and Cybersecurity Exhibition (IQDEX) in Baghdad, Iraq, April 19, 2025. REUTERS/Ahmed Saad
China has its deep trade ties across the Middle East, but cultural influence has so far lagged far behind its commercial footprint. Iraq is again a good example. China buys more Iraqi oil than anyone else, Chinese firms are heavily involved in energy and infrastructure and China supplies nearly a third of Iraq’s imports, but Western media still dominates entertainment and popular culture there.
Beijing is now trying to narrow that gap. A new Chinese film, Once Upon a Time in the Middle East, uses a fictionalized post-invasion Baghdad to starkly contrast China’s business-first image with the U.S. military role in the region, presenting a Chinese restaurateur as a symbol of commerce and stability amid conflict.
But it isn’t clear whether Beijing’s trade heft can translate into political and cultural influence. After all, China has largely avoided taking on the security burdens associated with American power in the region, even as some Middle Eastern governments increasingly want Beijing to do more diplomatically.
Iraq Watch
Baghdad Moves to Rein in Foreign Military Visits
Qaani during his participation in the funeral procession for an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander in Tehran, Oct. 15, 2024. (AFP)
Iraq is preparing new restrictions on foreign military advisers after Sept. 30, when the U.S.-led coalition mission ends. Under a proposal backed by Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, foreign officials, including Iranians, would require visas, be forced to request entry through official channels and arrange all meetings in advance.
The move follows unannounced visits by Iranian military figures and claims that Iranian forces have used Iraqi territory to support attacks in the region. MBN reported that Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani entered Iraq at least three times since Zaidi took office, including two visits that were never publicly announced.
But questions remain over whether Baghdad can enforce the new rules. Iran retains deep relationships with Iraqi political factions and armed groups, and one former Defense Ministry adviser told MBN he doubted Zaidi could simply bar Iranian officials from entering. The more realistic outcome may be tighter state oversight rather than a complete end to Tehran’s military access.
Horn of Africa Watch
Piracy Returns to the Gulf of Aden
Members of the Puntland Maritime Police Force (PMPF) patrol the Gulf of Aden waters off the coast of Bosaso in the semi-autonomous region of Puntland, Somalia January 30, 2024. REUTERS/Abdirahman Hussein
Somali piracy is making a comeback just as shipping through the region is already under pressure from conflict around Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. Recent hijackings and attacks off Puntland have revived a threat that had largely faded a decade ago due to international naval patrols and tighter commercial security.
The resurgence is also putting local fishermen in danger. Pirates and fishermen often use similar small boats in the same waters, making it difficult for naval forces and armed ship guards to distinguish between them. Puntland fishermen told MBN that recent strikes have left some too frightened to go to sea.
The stakes extend well beyond Somalia. Roughly 20,000 vessels pass through the Gulf of Aden each year, and piracy is already adding costs for insurance and rerouting to a corridor strained by wider regional conflict. In August, the International Maritime Organization said more than 90 seafarers were being held hostage aboard vessels taken by pirates to the Puntland coast.
Israel Watch
Democrats Challenge $2.8 Billion Bomb Sale
U.S. President Donald Trump points his finger towards Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a press conference. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst
Democrats in the U.S. Congress are pushing back on a proposed $2.8 billion sale of 40,000 heavy bombs to Israel, arguing that the Trump administration has not provided sufficient assurances about civilian protections. Rep. Gregory Meeks says he plans to place a hold on the package, while Sen. Chris Van Hollen says he will work to stop U.S. taxpayer funds from financing it.
The U.S. State Department defended Washington’s broader policy on Israeli arms transfers while declining to discuss the sale itself. “Our commitment to Israel is ironclad,” a spokesperson told MBN, adding that arms transfers are reviewed for human-rights concerns and compliance with U.S. law.
The dispute comes as skepticism toward Israel is widening in Washington. Criticism remains strongest among Democrats, but Vice President JD Vance has also argued that U.S. Middle East policy should not be “subservient” to Israel.
