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This week’s edition of the briefing is a joint effort by our new Iran reporter Tara Rad, who is writing under a pseudonym, and myself.
Here’s what you need to know.
Trump says he expects talks with Iran to resume this week, after his outright rejection on Saturday of Tehran’s Hormuz proposal. The Iranian foreign minister says Iran is prepared for war but still ready for diplomacy. Brent crude climbed above $106 a barrel on the mixed signals.
Washington and Tehran are offering differing accounts of what China privately promised each of them about Iran. Five men remain in custody after weekend arrests near an RAF air base used by the U.S. to strike the region. We’re waiting to see if Iran was behind the plot.
Iran still has no permanent defense or intelligence minister more than six months after both were killed. Its trade routes are lengthening and clogging as the war pushes more goods toward northern Caspian ports and overland crossings from China.
Share your thoughts, analysis, and predictions with me at ailves@mbn-news.com.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
We are fully prepared for the time for the war to be resumed… even if it comes to a doomsday war.
—Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi
TOP OF THE NEWS
1. Doors Shut and Open Between Washington and Tehran
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he expects talks with Iran to resume this week. This was a reversal of his flat rejection of an Iranian proposal a day earlier. In a letter submitted through Qatari mediators in the days before the weekend, Iran’s foreign ministry had mooted reopening the Strait of Hormuz within seven days in exchange for an end to the American naval blockade.
The U.S. president dismissed the offer outright on Saturday, telling reporters “They made a proposal, but I rejected it.” In a phone interview the next day, he said he now expects more talks with Iran this week. Tehran’s terms had included the U.S. releasing Iran’s frozen assets, waiving sanctions on oil, lifting its blockade of Iranian ports, and observing a ceasefire that would include Lebanon. The president characterized the terms as something Washington might have accepted a year ago.
Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent kept up the pressure under Operation Economic Outcast, the sanctions campaign his department has run against Iranian financial institutions and airlines since late summer. Bessent posted on X that he’d “dispatched [teams] across the globe to engage with countries and demand action against the Iranian regime.… Türkiye and Oman announced the cessation of Mahan Air flights to their countries. The UAE has halted all flights by Iranian airlines, and top commercial banks in the UAE and Türkiye have stopped transacting with Iran.”
The oil markets didn’t see any of this as hastening an end to the war. Brent crude climbed more than two percent to $106.88 a barrel by early Monday.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi struck his own double-edged note over the weekend. He told NBC that “We are fully prepared for the time for the war to be resumed… even if it comes to a doomsday war,” while insisting that “[a]t the same time, we stand ready for diplomacy.”
Watch whether talks actually resume this week.
A board showing a flight arriving from Tehran at Shanghai Airport last week. Photo: AFP.
2. Beijing Tells Washington and Tehran Two Different Things
Washington and Tehran are giving two irreconcilable versions of China’s posture toward Iran. U.S. Ambassador to China David Perdue said Beijing assured Washington it would stop helping Iran, but a senior Iranian official said China had assured Iran that it would not restrict its economic, political, or military relationship with Iran because of pressure from Washington. Publicly, the Chinese president split the difference: He said only that Beijing supports a return to negotiations between Washington and Tehran and that he hopes the two countries will ultimately reach an agreement.
China is Iran’s most important economic lifeline. The two countries signed a twenty-five-year, roughly $400 billion “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” in March 2021. Beijing buys the vast majority of the oil that Tehran exports. It also supplies the missile-fuel precursor chemicals and electronic components that have enabled Iran to resume ballistic missile production since the ceasefire in June.
Watch for further clarity on where Beijing stands regarding support for Tehran.
A police officer blocks a road near the RAF Fairford airbase in the UK. Photo: Reuters.
3. Britain Investigates a Possible Iran Link After Air Base Arrests
Five British men in their 20s were released on bail on Monday after being arrested Sunday near RAF Fairford air base. British counterterrorism police have not yet said whether they believe Iran was behind the alleged plot. The men were arrested on suspicion of preparing a terrorist act near the Gloucestershire base, from which U.S. Air Force bombers have flown missions against Iranian targets during the war, and Defense Secretary Wes Streeting said the incident was being dealt with.
It’s worth noting that on July 23, the IRGC, which the U.S. has designated as a foreign terrorist organization, said that “any base used to invade Iranian territory is our legitimate target” and that the “aggressive American army… turned to using B1 aircraft flying from the Fairford Air Base in England yesterday.” American aircraft have been flying to the region from the air base since March.
Watch if any Iranian link emerges.
IN OTHER NEWS
Iran Still Has No Permanent Defense or Intelligence Minister
More than six months after Iran’s defense and intelligence ministers were killed at the beginning of the war, neither has been permanently replaced.
Ahmad Naderi, a member of parliament’s leadership, said on Sunday that the government has still not submitted a nominee for either position. He called on President Masoud Pezeshkian’s government to make its choices soon.
The government says it has until Oct. 7 to submit its nominees and does not intend to announce them before then.
Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh was killed on Feb. 28, while Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib was killed on March 18.
Both ministries have continued operating under acting ministers. Seyed Majid Ebnolreza, who had been a deputy defense minister, was appointed acting defense minister after Nasirzadeh’s death. The government also appointed an acting intelligence minister after Khatib was killed, but his identity has not been publicly announced.
Under Iran’s constitution, an acting minister can normally run a ministry for up to three months. The government says that once that period expired, it received permission from the supreme leader to keep the acting ministers in place. A reminder: The supreme leader has been neither seen nor heard from since his appointment almost seven months ago.
The extension arrangement was later extended. Naderi said the latest extension is now approaching its end and argued that the government should nominate permanent ministers rather than seek another extension.
The distinction matters because the appointment of a permanent minister has to go through parliament. The president must nominate a candidate, who then needs to secure a vote of confidence from MPs.
Inside a tunnel on the road connecting Tehran and Iran’s Caspian Sea coast. Photo: AFP.
Iran’s Trade Routes Are Getting Longer and More Crowded
Iran’s foreign trade fell sharply during the first five months of the Iranian year, as the war disrupted traditional shipping routes and pushed more goods toward land borders and northern ports on the Caspian Sea.
Amir Roshanbakhsh Ghanbari, a deputy head of Iran’s Trade Promotion Organization, told the ILNA news agency that imports and exports had fallen by roughly 25%. He said goods that once arrived through southern ports are increasingly being redirected over land, including cargo from China.
The alternatives have limits. Ghanbari said some border crossings that previously handled around 200 to 250 trucks a day are now dealing with as many as 1,200. Some shipments can take up to 100 days to reach Iran. According to Ghanbari the problem is capacity.
In May, Masoud Daneshmand, head of Iran’s Association of International Transport Companies, warned that Caspian Sea ports could not replace those in the south. He estimated that around 160 million tons of Iran’s roughly 170 million tons of annual imports and exports moved through southern ports, compared with about seven million tons through northern ports.
Iran has nevertheless been trying to move more trade north. Earlier this month, Gilan Governor Hadi Haghshenas said container arrivals at northern ports had risen about 50% during the first five months of the year.
