You can read it in Arabic here, and check out MBN’s flagship Arabic-language Alhurra news platform (English version here).
This week’s edition of the briefing is a joint effort by our Iran reporter Tara Rad, who is writing under a pseudonym, and me.
Here’s what you need to know. Saudi, Pakistani and Turkish officials came to Tehran. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reportedly conferred with other Iranian leaders — but as always, no video, photo or audio of his meetings has been released. Inflation reached 88.7%, and the government says security bodies are prepared for possible unrest in the coming weeks. A widely-circulated article called for rethinking Iran’s nuclear doctrine. Parliament approved a provision requiring the intelligence agencies to publish a list of media outlets Iranians could be prosecuted for speaking with, while retirees and workers protested over pensions and unpaid wages in several cities.
Find out more below, and share your thoughts, analysis and predictions with me at ailves@mbn-news.com. If you were forwarded the MBN Iran Briefing, please subscribe.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
Recently, there has been talk of a new war, but I am already thinking about the postwar period. Whether there is war or not, our policies remain the same.
— Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi
TOP OF THE NEWS
The Mecca Pact Countries Come to Tehran
Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman, Pakistani army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin were in Tehran on Monday. They met with Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei.
The next day, a Turkish parliamentary committee approved ratification of the 16-article Mecca Joint Defense Agreement that had been signed in Mecca on Aug. 7 by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. The pact takes effect only once the full Turkish Assembly votes and the government formally files its ratification, for which no date has been set.
The Mecca Joint Defense Agreement provides that an armed attack on any one of the three countries is an attack on all. At the time of signing, the signatories stressed that the agreement is not aimed at any country in particular. In theory this leaves Iran outside its scope as long as Iran attacks none of the three.
Tehran’s record does not meet that test, though. Drones hit Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery on March 2 as Iran struck targets across the region, and on March 4 Saudi air defenses intercepted 10 drones and two cruise missiles, with Ras Tanura targeted again.
Earlier this month Rayed Krimly, Saudi deputy minister for public diplomacy, said that the recent Houthi escalation is encouraged by Iran. It’s been reported that Monday’s visitors to Tehran asked that Iran restrain the Houthis, and that Iran answered that it lacked leverage over them.
Yet within a day Rezaei received the Houthi envoy in Tehran, Ibrahim al-Dulaimi, whom Iranian outlets call the ambassador of Yemen and of Ansarullah, the Houthi movement, a U.S.-designated terrorist organization.
A draft regional deal reported yesterday pairs a Hormuz reopening with a Houthi pullback and the end of the Saudi blockade of Houthi-held territory, with Iran now acknowledging a mediating role in Yemen.
Still only pictured with old photos – no new photos in eight months: Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. Photo: Reuters.
Mojtaba Allegedly Holds Private Meetings
Recently, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, has purportedly held a series of meetings with some senior Iranian officials, while still remaining absent from public events.
No video, picture or audio of these meetings has been released, and what we know about them comes from reports in Iranian media.
One of these meetings took place on Oct. 21, when Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of the Iranian Parliament, met Khamenei to discuss several topics, including the war and the economy.
Ghalibaf later told Parliament that Khamenei was in “complete health” and energetic. He said the supreme leader was closely following economic indicators, the war and negotiations.
Judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Eje’i has also said that he recently met Khamenei.
According to Mohseni-Eje’i, Khamenei was well informed about domestic and international affairs.
On Tuesday, Rezaei of the Supreme National Security Council also met Khamenei, according to Iranian media. The report was published with a standard stock photograph but no audio or video.
Khamenei’s participation in public events has been limited to statements and messages.
The most recent example was on Monday, when Khamenei sent a written message to a ceremony honoring Iranian scientific and sporting medal winners. The statement was read on his behalf at the event.
A man working at a food venue in Tehran on Tuesday. Photo: Reuters.
Inflation Nears 89%
The headlines in the Iranian press don’t hold back. “Record-breaking annual inflation continues / food prices became 112% more expensive” reads one. Official figures for the Iranian month of Mehr (Sept. 23 to Oct. 22) show prices 88.7% higher than a year earlier and prices up 4.4% on the previous month. A separate analysis of the month’s economic data put the gap in inflation between provinces at 32.8%.
At her weekly briefing on Oct. 27, government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani said that wartime pressure and the economic blockade have eroded some households’ purchasing power, while Central Bank of Iran Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati said foreign currency and rial funding for medicine imports continues. He said this the same week a recent feature on medicine in Mehr News, a semi-official Iranian news agency run by the Islamic Culture and Communication Organization, was headlined as a journey from prescription to a “crushing expense.”
Iranian Government Prepares for Possible Security Crisis Scenarios
Iran’s government says security and crisis-management bodies are prepared for different scenarios in case of domestic unrest.
There is currently public discussion in Iran about possible protests and security concerns during the Iranian month of Aban, which runs from late October into late November.
Asked about possible unrest during her weekly press conference on Oct. 27, Mohajerani said the authorities were prepared for different scenarios.
Neither Mohajerani nor the reporter elaborated on why the month of Aban might be associated with possible unrest, but in Aban 2019, protests erupted across Iran after a sudden increase in fuel prices and were violently suppressed by government security forces.
Human rights groups say hundreds of people were killed.
Mohajerani, however, presented the current concern in terms of what she described as previous foreign efforts to create instability.
She said the government and other bodies responsible for security and crisis management were “fully prepared” to deal with different scenarios.
Kayhan Calls for Iran to Rethink Its Nuclear Doctrine
An Iranian conservative newspaper has recently called for rethinking Iran’s nuclear doctrine.
Ebrahim Karkhanei wrote in Kayhan: “Experience from wars shows that possessing nuclear weapons does not prevent conventional conflicts. Nuclear-armed states have each defined ultimate conditions for the use of nuclear weapons, and in some cases these have been approved by their legislatures.”
The writer argued: “This can help prevent a war from expanding, as seen in the Russia-Ukraine war, where it has prevented NATO and Western armies from entering the conflict directly.”
The article mentioned Russia, Pakistan and North Korea as examples of how nuclear weapons can act as a deterrent and help prevent a wider war.
The Kayhan article was reported by several Iranian media outlets.
The writer also cited Foreign Affairs and wrote that if Libya had acquired nuclear weapons, it might have faced a different fate and the country might not have been destroyed.
In the same way, he argued that if Iran had nuclear weapons, its leader would not have been attacked and assassinated.
Intelligence Agencies Decide Which Media Are Off-Limits Under Proposed Law
The Iranian Parliament has approved a provision that would require the country’s two main intelligence bodies to publicly list media outlets that Iranian citizens could face criminal charges for speaking with.
On Sunday, members of Parliament approved an addition to Article 22 of the proposed law. Under the provision, the Ministry of Intelligence and the IRGC Intelligence Organization, a U.S.-designated terrorist organization, would have three months after the law takes effect to prepare and publish a list of the media outlets covered by the article. Any changes to the list would also have to be made public.
As reported in this briefing at the time, Article 22 received initial approval earlier this month. It would prohibit Iranian citizens from engaging with media outlets designated as “hostile” by the Intelligence Ministry. (Officials are exempt.)
Punishment for violations could include imprisonment, fines and flogging.
The proposed law is not limited to media activities. It also covers a wide range of cooperation with foreign individuals and institutions, including universities and scientific, cultural and economic organizations.
A worker assembles a combine harvester at a factory in Arak, southwest of Tehran. Photo: AFP.
Retirees and Workers Protest Over Pensions, Unpaid Wages and Jobs
Retirees and workers held separate protests in different cities across Iran over pensions, unpaid wages, healthcare and job security.
On Sunday, retired steel workers gathered outside the Labor Ministry in Tehran. A similar protest was also held in Isfahan.
ILNA, the labor-focused state-affiliated news agency, reported that the retirees’ demands included the implementation of pension regulations for the steel industry and better medical coverage.
The protests and gatherings by retirees over pensions and healthcare have continued for several months in different cities across Iran.
In separate protests, some workers also protested over unpaid wages and job security.
In one example, around 15 contract workers at Tehran’s Azadi Stadium who had not been paid for three months held a protest outside the Sports Ministry.
The workers’ protests are not widespread or large in number, but in recent months there have been many sporadic protests across Iran over salaries, healthcare and working conditions.
