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In this week’s MBN Agenda: Iran has put a new ceasefire offer on the table, Trump has rejected its opening terms and Qatar is trying to keep the talks alive. The biggest question now is whether Washington and Tehran can revive the broader June framework, settle first on a narrower deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, or make any diplomatic headway at all.
Elsewhere, China’s leader leaves Washington without giving Trump much help on Iran, new reporting points to a more direct Iranian and Hezbollah role in the Houthi seizure of Mocha, Trump’s Board of Peace unveils a $2.45 billion Gaza plan and Gulf states are adapting their Washington influence campaigns for the Trump era.
Shaiba alhamd Abdelrahman, Joe Kawly and Alexis Thomas contributed to this week’s Agenda.
Washington Signals
The Talks Before the Talks
After a week of diplomatic shuttling around the U.N. General Assembly, the disagreement between Washington and Tehran on ending their seven-month war seems to be about what comes before any ceasefire talks.
Tehran closed UNGA week offering to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart nuclear talks within seven days if Washington lifts its naval blockade, eases oil sanctions and restores a regional ceasefire. Trump immediately dismissed the proposal over the weekend, but told Axios he expects more talks. (Qatar is reportedly already shopping a new compromise text between the sides.)
In one corner, Iran is seeking economic and military relief from the United States before any negotiations restart. In the other, Washington is demanding more movement on the nuclear issue before it surrenders any such leverage. U.N. Ambassador Mike Waltz put the U.S. objection bluntly Sunday: Tehran was “asking for everything up front” just for the promise of restarting talks.
Behind all that lies the central question now looming over even the prospect of talks: Is Washington trying to reconstruct the broader June 17 memorandum, with the reopening of Hormuz and curbs to Iran’s nuclear program bundled together, or would it now be willing to cut a narrower deal to reopen the strait, with nuclear talks to follow?
Scotching high expectations, China did little last week to simplify that calculation.
In their White House meeting, Trump told Chinese President Xi Jinping that Beijing’s support for Iran was “totally unacceptable,” according to comments from the U.S. ambassador to Beijing, David Perdue, who added that Xi had offered Trump a “commitment” against any further Chinese support for Tehran.
China’s tone hardly sounded any softer, however, as soon as Xi flew out of Washington after his days of conviviality with Trump. Chinese Vice President Han Zheng on Saturday pointedly used Beijing’s UNGA address on Saturday to defend the sovereignty of Middle Eastern states against the interventions of “major powers.” The speech followed reports that Chinese diplomats told the Iranian delegation Beijing would not comply with U.S. sanctions on Tehran.
Back in Washington, the wider consequences of the Iran conflict refuse to fade away, as much as the administration tries to keep the war from spreading.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam at the State Department on Monday morning as Beirut presses for concrete progress on the U.S.-brokered security framework with Israel. In his U.N. speech, Salam reiterated Beirut’s demands for a clear timetable for Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory and the fight against Iran-backed Hezbollah, which the U.S. government classifies as a terrorist group. Yet any such clarification seems less and less likely as Israel’s Oct. 27 election nears. For its part, Iran has also repeatedly insisted on Israel’s withdrawal as part of any ceasefire with the United States.
Rubio also met Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan, highlighting how much the Iran war colors U.S. relations beyond the feeble diplomatic channel with Iran. Riyadh has repeatedly pushed Trump to hit the Iran-backed Houthis as they advanced in Yemen, but Washington has limited its support to intelligence and targeting assistance. For the Saudis, that raises a broader question hanging over any Hormuz deal with Tehran: whether getting the Strait of Hormuz open would really do enough to blunt a war that has unleashed new security issues across the region.
Quote of the day
A resolution adopted but not implemented has no value, and a right that is recognized but not protected has no value or meaning.
— Bahrain Foreign Minister Abdullatif Al Zayani, speaking Friday at the U.N. General Assembly on the limits of the United Nations system on impacting the real world.
Featured Conversation
Warm Ties, Hard Questions
Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund, spoke last week with MBN’s Washington D.C. bureau chief, Joe Kawly, about the Trump-Xi summit and China’s role in the Iran war.
On Chinese companies’ military aid to Iran: “Chinese companies are supplying satellite imagery to Iran to use it for targeting purposes. And we’ve seen a lot of destruction at U.S. bases and military installations in the region. … It means that China is complicit in killing Americans.”
On China’s willingness to help end the war: “We really haven’t seen China do much of anything. I am personally skeptical that China wants to get its hands dirty in terms of being a mediator.”
On using Taiwan arms sales as leverage with Beijing: “I hope that we don’t try to get something in return from China for slowing down arms sales to Taiwan. It’s just not in our interest. We shouldn’t be using Taiwan as a bargaining chip.”
On what Xi wants from Washington: “I think that the Chinese agenda is limited to Xi Jinping getting respect from the United States, being treated as a peer and his country being respected as a peer of the United States.”
China Watch
Xi Can Afford to Wait on Iran
US President Donald Trump shakes hands with China’s President Xi Jinping after a visit with First Lady Melania Trump and China’s First Lady Peng Liyuan to the National Archives in Washington, DC on September 25, 2026. Saul Loeb/AFP
Trump’s summit with Xi last week produced Chinese support for renewed U.S.-Iran talks but no commitment from Beijing to pressure Tehran toward any deal. China remains Iran’s biggest oil customer, and analysts told MBN that Beijing could use that as hefty leverage on Tehran if it wanted to.
The problem for Washington is that Beijing lacks incentives to use that influence. “Xi looks quite content to let the U.S. get bogged down in this conflict,” said Grant Rumley of the Washington Institute, arguing the war has left Iran more dependent on China while consuming American military attention and resources.
Xi instead urged a return to the June 17 ceasefire framework and renewed nuclear talks. With Trump and Xi meeting again at APEC and the G20 later this year, Washington will have more opportunities to seek Chinese help on ending the war. But the question will remain what Beijing wants in return.
Yemen Watch
Iran’s Role in Yemen Moves Closer to the Battlefield
Houthis celebrate territorial gains after a major offensive operation in western Yemen, in this screengrab from a video released on September 14, 2026. The video was said to show footage from the Hodeidah and Taiz governorates. Houthi Military Media/Handout via REUTERS
Iranian and Hezbollah commanders directly helped plan and execute the Houthi offensive that captured Yemen’s strategic port of Mocha this month, according to a former Houthi spokesman interviewed by MBN. Yemeni government officials also said Iranian personnel helped direct operations along the western coast.
Such direct support would mark a step beyond Tehran’s longstanding provision of weapons, training and technical assistance. Former Houthi spokesman Ali al-Bukhaiti said Iranian and Hezbollah personnel helped penetrate and disrupt opposing forces’ communications during the assault, which saw Mocha and nearby islands fall to the Houthis in less than 48 hours.
The stakes extend beyond Yemen. Houthi control around Mocha strengthens the group’s position near Bab al-Mandab, giving it greater ability to threaten Red Sea shipping and Saudi oil exports just as the Iran war cuts off Hormuz.
Gaza Watch
Trump’s Board of Peace Puts a Price Tag on Gaza Plan
U.S. President Donald Trump and US Vice President JD Vance sit together surrounded by members of the “Board of Peace” during a signing ceremony at the inaugural meeting of the “Board of Peace” at the US Institute of Peace in Washington, DC, on February 19, 2026 / AFP.
On the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York, Trump’s Board of Peace unveiled a $2.45 billion program for Gaza’s economic recovery over the next six months. The plan intends to eventually replace Hamas rule with a Palestinian civilian administration protected by an international force, beginning “sector by sector” in Rafah.
Officials said 500 troops from Kosovo and Morocco have already been trained for deployment, and the board said it has secured $18 billion in long-term commitments. Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair said at a briefing in New York that Hamas had agreed “in principle” to dismantling its military infrastructure, though the actual disarmament process has yet to begin.
Israel has refused to accept the “phased withdrawals” of Israeli forces in Gaza or the verification mechanism at the heart of the plan, and Board of Peace officials note that Israel’s Oct. 27 election is making any progress difficult.
Regional Watch
The Middle East’s K Street Strategy
Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman arrives for meetings on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., U.S., November 19, 2025. REUTERS/Tom Brenner
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Turkey have long poured resources into influencing Washington, but their approach is changing under Trump. Rather than relying primarily on traditional policy expertise, the countries are increasingly hiring firms and figures with personal connections to the Trump administration and its small circle of influential decision-makers.
The networks include longtime Saudi links with firms such as Brownstein Hyatt and Qorvis, the UAE’s work with Akin Gump and Turkey’s new contract with Ballard Partners, as Ankara seeks a return to the F-35 program. Ballard’s ties to Trump-world figures have made it especially prominent in the new environment.
But the Iran war has also shown the limits of K Street. When Gulf governments wanted to influence the most consequential wartime decisions – including reported efforts to discourage U.S. strikes that could provoke retaliation – the focus shifted from the lobbyists to traditional leader-to-leader diplomacy.
