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In this week’s MBN Agenda: Trump’s push to bring down fuel prices is colliding with two crises at once. Talks with Iran over reopening the Strait of Hormuz remain stuck, while a widening war in Yemen is putting Saudi oil infrastructure under fresh pressure and again putting Washington on the spot about it is willing to go to help Riyadh.
Elsewhere, Baghdad won a U.S. sanctions waiver for Iranian flights, and Syria quietly opened a channel to Hezbollah, even as tensions persist along the Lebanese border.
Sakina Abdallah, Mustafa Saadoon and Alexis Thomas contributed to this week’s Agenda.
Washington Signals
Trump’s two-strait problem
Donald Trump wants fuel prices to come down before the midterms less than a month away. But a widening war in Yemen could force the U.S. president to reconsider how much military help he is willing to expend to make that happen.
Washington has so far resisted Saudi Arabia’s requests for airstrikes against the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. But with the group threatening Red Sea shipping and claiming responsibility for attacks on Saudi oil facilities, Trump’s effort to cut energy costs in time for the elections may now depend on this second war as much as on Iran.
Publicly, administration officials have maintained a bullish disposition.
“Diesel prices have been going down. Gasoline prices have been going down. I expect that to continue,” Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Sunday on CBS’s “Face the Nation.” But even he acknowledged that was far from certain.
“There’s no guarantees in conflict,” he said. “There’s no guarantees in life.”
Saudi Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser underscored that uncertainty on Monday, warning that global pressure on oil and fuel supplies would intensify until Hormuz fully reopened and confidence returned to world markets.
“The system is already straining,” he told an energy conference in London, adding that replenishing global inventories could take up to two years.
Some immediate help for the Trump administration arrived in the form of a G7 deal on Friday to release 100 million barrels of oil and fuel from emergency stocks over the next four months, including substantial diesel supplies within 20 days. That will provide some relief ahead of the midterms, even as Trump suggests the war with Iran won’t be over by Election Day on Nov. 3.
“It’s going to end very soon, and probably right after the midterms,” he said at a Friday rally in Alabama, predicting that gas prices would then be slashed.
Any U.S.-Iran diplomacy that was bubbling around in the U.N. General Assembly in New York last month has so far failed to produce much of a result. While Qatar has continued passing messages between Washington and Tehran in hopes of finding a compromise on reopening the Strait of Hormuz ahead of more talks, Trump has denied reports that he offered sanctions relief and access to frozen Iranian funds.
Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament and Tehran’s lead negotiator in the current round of pre-talks talks, at least confirmed over the weekend that new U.S. proposals had arrived through intermediaries. But he insisted that Iran’s seven conditions for reopening Hormuz must be met, which among other things includes ending the U.S. naval blockade on Iran’s ports.
“We will neither become emotional nor intimidated; we will both fight and negotiate,” Ghalibaf said, according to The National. “The person who is victorious at the negotiating table is the one who has prepared himself for war.”
Still, Hormuz is now only one piece on the oil price chessboard.
Yemen’s Saudi-backed government announced a major offensive on Sunday to recapture Houthi-held territory, following the group’s advances along the Red Sea coast and around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the sea’s southern chokepoint. The Houthis also claimed they had launched missile and drone attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities.
That leads to the most pressing question for Trump in the next month: how far to go in helping Riyadh. So far, the clear answer has been: not too far. (America “is not going to take kinetic action for now,” a U.S. official told Axios on Friday.)
If talks with Iran remain stalled and the Saudi-backed forces in Yemen struggle, Trump could face increased pressure to intervene. But even then, direct U.S. strikes may only provoke further Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities, driving prices higher again. With the midterms approaching, Trump’s promise of cheaper fuel could become an argument both for and against intervening.
Quote of the day
“There is no written, solid offer. It is brainstorming between two foreign ministers.”
— Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, on an Iranian proposal for Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey to jointly explore peace talks with the Houthis.
Yemen Watch
Yemen Launches All-Out Push to Retake Sanaa
Members of the Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces ride on a military pick-up vehicle as they patrol a road leading to a frontline of clashes with Iran-aligned Houthi fighters, in Taiz province, Yemen, September 30, 2026. REUTERS/Ebrahim Al-Suhaibi
Yemen’s Saudi-backed government launched a nationwide offensive against the Houthis, with Presidential Leadership Council chief Rashad al-Alimi declaring the goal is nothing less than retaking the capital, Sanaa, and restoring government control across the country. “Today, I announce the start of military operations to reclaim the remaining territory of the Republic of Yemen,” he said.
The campaign follows weeks of Houthi gains around Taiz and the Red Sea coast, including territory overlooking the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the chokepoint that has become vital as the Iran war disrupts Saudi access to the Strait of Hormuz.
The offensive has raised the stakes for Washington. Riyadh previously asked Trump for direct U.S. strikes on the Houthis, but the administration declined and instead offered intelligence and targeting support. If Yemeni government forces struggle to reverse Houthi gains, Riyadh is likely to renew its calls for help.
Iraq Watch
U.S. Waiver Reopens Iranian Flights to Najaf
Iranian Shia pilgrims leave Najaf International Airport carrying their luggage as flights resume following a suspension of about two months, amid a ceasefire between the United States and Iran, in Najaf, Iraq, April 29, 2026. Reuters.
Iranian airlines will be allowed to resume service to Najaf after Baghdad secured a U.S. exemption from sweeping sanctions targeting Iran’s aviation sector. The deal permits up to 40 flights a day, although Iran’s Mahan Air, which the U.S. government designates as a terrorist entity, remains excluded.
The waiver followed a request from Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, who praised Washington’s “positive response” to Baghdad’s efforts. Iranian flights to Iraq’s four main airports were suspended after the U.S. threatened sanctions against airports servicing Iranian carriers as part of its “Economic Outcast” campaign.
Najaf is the most important Iraqi destination for Iranian travelers, particularly Shiite pilgrims visiting the shrine of Imam Ali and nearby Karbala. The exemption shows Baghdad still has some room to carve out exceptions to Washington’s pressure campaign where domestic Iraqi interests are at stake.
Syria Watch
Syria and Hezbollah Open a Quiet Channel
Syria’s President Ahmed al-Sharaa addresses the 81st United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) at UN headquarters in New York City, US, September 23, 2026. REUTERS/MIKE SEGAR
Syrian and Hezbollah officials secretly met in Turkey last month in an effort to ease tensions. Damascus reportedly assured the Iran-backed group it would not try to disarm them in Lebanon by force, while asking it to help stop cross-border smuggling and dismantle sleeper cells inside Syria. No deal was reached, Reuters reported, citing two Syrian officials and one U.S. official.
The talks took place amid fresh evidence of how combustible the Syria-Lebanon border remains. Syrian authorities later said they arrested a Hezbollah-linked cell near the Golan Heights that was preparing to launch rockets, while Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa used his U.N. speech in New York to demand Israel withdraw from territory it seized after Bashar al-Assad’s fall.
The backchannel suggests Damascus is trying to contain Hezbollah without opening another front, even as it spars with Israel over the Golan Heights and deepens ties with Turkey. The balancing act is becoming harder as Syria’s government tries to reassert control over the country’s territory and suppress armed networks left behind by the old order.
