Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi took office with the strongest public mandate of any recent Iraqi prime minister. Seventy-seven percent of Iraqis were satisfied with his selection after his first 100 days, outpacing predecessors Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, Mustafa al-Kadhimi and Adil Abdul-Mahdi.
However, the pollster Munqith Dagher, who also serves as chairman of the Independent Institute for Administration and Civil Society Studies in Baghdad, said he sees signs this approval may slip.
“It is a very fragile indicator, and I can see that he has already started losing credibility after failing to deal with militia weapons, the big economic crises and the devaluation of the Iraqi dinar,” Dagher told MBN.
The polling was conducted from Aug. 5–31 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Approval vs. Trust
The survey of 2,056 Iraqis, presented Tuesday by the Atlantic Council in Washington, shows a public willing to give Zaidi’s government time to improve circumstances in Iraq.
Of the Iraqis polled, 64% said they had trust in his government and 77% approved of him as prime minister.
“Most of this approval is based on emotional hopes that he will deliver better than others, especially since he is regarded as someone outside the politically hated establishment,” Dagher said.
Zaidi was a successful businessman with no prior political experience before becoming the prime minister.
The trust rating is split along sectarian lines, according to Dagher’s polling.
Sunnis had the highest level of trust for Zaidi’s government, surpassing 80%, followed by Shiites at 61% and Kurds at 41%.
Under an informal power sharing arrangement, since 2005 all Iraqi prime ministers have been Shiite, the presidents Kurdish and the speakers of parliament Sunni.
Corruption Disappointment
Dagher found that 72% of the Iraqis surveyed said the Zaidi government was succeeding against corruption, although 86% said they still believed graft remained an issue.
Zaidi kicked off his term with an anti-corruption campaign targeting Iraqi politicians, lawmakers and senior government officials. But for many Iraqis the campaign has not been aggressive enough, said Dagher.
“Corruption in Iraq is a pervasive cancer, spreading everywhere and starting with top politicians,” he said. “Yet Zaidi’s anti-corruption campaign didn’t reach the biggest thieves whom Iraqis want to see sent to jail.”
He said the campaign has already lost steam, having stopped at mid-level officials rather than the country’s most powerful figures.
Dagher warned that unmet expectations on corruption would produce “big frustration” that would weigh on the government’s popularity.
Services and the Economy
Iraqis gave the government its highest marks on security, with 76% saying it had succeeded in making the country safer. The reliability of the nation’s electric grid ranked lowest at 41%, which Dagher partly attributed to fieldwork conducted during the August heat.
Unemployment topped the list of public concerns. Fifty-six percent named it one of their top three priorities, followed by electricity and corruption.
Even so, Iraqis surveyed said that they were optimistic about the economy under Zaidi. A similar 56% believed his government was handling the economy successfully.
Dagher said optimism about the economy reflected timing. Salaries were still being paid in August, and Iraqis held high hopes for a prime minister with a business background.
But the loss of oil export revenue due to the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran has created a currency crisis.
His newer weekly polling shows “significant changes,” he said, particularly on the economy, following the salary crisis and the government’s failure to regulate weapons in the possession of Iranian-backed militias in the country.
Disarmament of these factions has been a consistent issue for Iraqi prime ministers, and Zaidi’s government recently delayed the deadline for disarmament.
Iran Overtakes the U.S.
The poll also captured a sharp shift in how Iraqis view Washington and Tehran. In 2023, 32% of Iraqis viewed the United States favorably compared with 25% for Iran.
Today, 57% of Iraqis view Iran favorably, compared with 37% for the United States.
Perceptions of influence followed the same path. The share of Iraqis who said Iran has a positive influence in Iraq rose from 13% in 2023 to 40%, while the U.S. figure rose from 24% to 33%.
“I think it is a reflection of the war,” Dagher said. Even Sunnis and Kurds, who typically view Iran more negatively, “were disappointed with how the U.S. was unable to stop the high influence of Iran and its proxies in Iraq,” he said.
According to Dagher, Shiite-majority areas remain the most favorable toward Iran.
The Kurdish Break
Kurds were the most pessimistic group across nearly every question. Only 66% were satisfied with Zaidi’s selection, and just 42% were satisfied with the selection of President Nizar al-Amidi.
“It is a broad break with Baghdad and the U.S. politics towards Kurds,” Dagher said. “Zaidi is seen as a joint product of the U.S. and the Coordination Framework. They are not happy with both of them.”
At the Atlantic Council, Dagher tied Kurdish security concerns to the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Kurdistan Region and the political divide between Erbil and Sulaymaniyah.
The rivalry between the Erbil-based Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Sulaymaniyah-based Patriotic Union of Kurdistan has left the Kurdistan Region without a new government since October 2024 elections.
Kurdish leaders say relations with Zaidi’s government remain good, but they want Baghdad to pay regional salaries on time, increase the region’s budget share and pass an oil law guaranteeing Kurdish control of the region’s fields. They also want a referendum on disputed territories such as Kirkuk.
A Snapshot Under Pressure
Dagher said conducting this research has become more difficult.
Police, militias and national security officials have stopped and detained his interviewers, and he has been sued over sensitive questions.
“Always the claim is that you are spying,” he said.
Still, he said he plans to release an 200-day survey, which will show whether Zaidi can convert early goodwill into lasting support. Dagher said the current approval “is not a real credit. It is a potential credit.”
“Unfortunately, prime ministers, they start always strongly and then gradually, they start losing their momentum,” he said.
