Small ISIS units are moving from areas of northern Iraq toward the outskirts of Baghdad, where they are working to arm their members and reorganize fighters who previously pledged allegiance to the group, according to a source at Iraq’s Federal Intelligence Agency (FIA) who spoke to MBN.
The source, who requested anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly, said that small ISIS units had been moving into the Baghdad Belt region for several weeks as reinforcements from villages in Salah al-Din Province. They were traveling along what are known locally as “naysmiya” roads — unmonitored dirt tracks that wind through agricultural land and orchards.
The movements suggest that the group is seeking to reorganize after U.S. troops withdrew from the country on Sept. 30, the source said, although other officials MBN spoke with said ISIS did not pose a serious threat.
Each unit consists of three to five members. The FIA source said the groups mostly seemed focused on securing weapons, recruiting new members and reestablishing connections with people who had since severed ties.
Intelligence officials have managed to identify the members of only three such units. But some teams include people Iraqi intelligence has yet to identify.
“There are no reliable sources monitoring them,” the source said.
Information about the units comes from thermal-camera footage and accounts from farmers who have seen armed men moving through orchards at night.
The source estimates that Iraqis account for 90% to 95% of the members involved. There is no information indicating whether foreign or Arab fighters are among them.
Intelligence information has tied a spate of killings in Tarmiyah, north of Baghdad, in recent months to ISIS members, although the motives behind the killings remain unknown, the source said.
The source described the groups’ operating methods as resembling a “gang system.” They move through areas where security surveillance is limited and avoid initiating attacks, confining themselves instead to “fending off security operations targeting them,” the source said.
The Sept. 30 withdrawal of international coalition forces fighting ISIS, including the U.S. troops, came under a prior agreement with the Iraqi government.
But the withdrawal has revived memories of the previous pullout in 2011, which was followed by a surge in ISIS activity in Iraq. The group eventually seized Mosul and large swaths of the country in 2014, prompting U.S. forces to return to Iraq as part of the international coalition formed to fight it.
The end of the coalition’s military mission in Iraq has once again raised questions about the Iraqi forces’ ability to contain the remnants of ISIS and prevent them from exploiting security gaps.
Lt. Gen. Saad Maan, head of Iraq’s Security Media Cell, told MBN that ISIS was “closely monitoring the withdrawal.”
He nevertheless ruled out the group’s ability to regain control of Iraqi territory, describing a return to “holding ground” as “impossible.”
“The group has few members, but it takes advantage of the complex geography of mountains and valleys in areas such as Zagheitoun, Wadi al-Shay and the Hamrin Mountains in Kirkuk,” he said.
Asked about the intelligence source’s account of ISIS movements in areas north of Baghdad, Maan said only that the group was “looking for a media victory.”
Since the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq was completed, Kirkuk province has seen attacks attributed to ISIS, which Washington designates as a terrorist organization. The most prominent was an Oct. 5 attack targeting Iraqi forces in the Hawija district, which killed one police officer and wounded four others. ISIS claimed responsibility the following day.
Fadel Abu Ragheef, a security expert specializing in terrorism, told MBN that ISIS was carrying out limited operations but at an “increasing pace,” particularly in areas near Kirkuk and Salah al-Din provinces.
This picture is broadly consistent with recent assessments of the group’s activity.
In September, the U.S.-based Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, or ACLED, which collects and analyzes data on conflicts and political violence worldwide, said ISIS activity in Iraq had reached its lowest levels.
The group’s capabilities are now concentrated in scattered cells in Anbar, Nineveh and Salah al-Din provinces and in the Hamrin Mountains, it said.
Despite its reduced activity, ISIS remains capable of carrying out limited attacks using improvised explosive devices, as well as kidnappings and sporadic assaults on security forces and civilians.
Adapted and translated from the original Arabic.
