Israelis head to the polls on Oct. 27 in a general election that will determine the future of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. But with the race between Netanyahu’s allies and the opposition bloc too close to call, the outcome likely to hinge on more than who comes out top in the ballot.
Security concerns, the fate of smaller parties hovering around the threshold needed to enter parliament and shifts in the positions of key political leaders could all shape the period of intense political horse-trading that will follow the vote. Together, these factors may determine whether Netanyahu can retain power, or his opponents can assemble a parliamentary majority and form the next government.
Here are five key factors that could impact who takes power.
Arab Voter Turnout
Much attention is focused on whether Arab citizens of Israel will turn out in greater numbers than in previous votes. Strong participation increases the likelihood of Arab parties playing a kingmaker role and shifting the balance in favor of the opposition. A poll by the Stat-Net Institute, cited by Reuters, estimated that turnout could reach about 63%, up from more than 53% in the 2022.
The projections come despite some calls for Arab citizens of Israel to boycott the vote amid questions over the value of participating in Israeli politics and forming alliances with Jewish parties.
The northern branch of the Islamic Movement, a hardline Islamist faction outlawed in Israel, has rejected participation in the election, urging supporters not to vote for either the United Arab List or the Joint List, the two main Arab blocs.
The debate over participation is also intertwined with frustrations over crime and violence, discrimination and the quality of public services in Arab communities.
But others see getting their voters out as potentially crucial to unseating Netanyahu. The Islamic movement’s more moderate southern branch, represented by the United Arab List, known as Ra’am and led by Mansour Abbas, has urged voters to participate while leaving open the possibility of joining a future government. The Joint List has also tried to impress upon supporters the importance of turning out.
But the impact of the Arab vote will ultimately hinge on how many seats the Arab lists win and whether other parties are willing to cooperate with them.
An estimated 1.18 million Arab citizens are eligible to vote, accounting for roughly 16% of the country’s electorate, according to the Israeli studies center Madar. About 21% of Israel’s population is Arab.
Naftali Bennett’s Stance Toward Netanyahu
Naftali Bennett, Israel’s former prime minister and one of Netanyahu’s leading challengers in the 2026 election, is another potential wildcard, with questions over the strength of his loyalties to the opposition bloc.
Netanyahu and Bennett share positions on some key issues, most notably their vehement opposition to the establishment of an independent Palestinian state and their hardline approach toward Iran. But they disagree on the administration of the West Bank, accountability for the failures of Oct. 7, 2023, and military conscription for ultra-Orthodox Jews, known as Haredim.
In 2021, Bennett’s coalition ended Netanyahu’s 12-year stretch in power. This time around, Bennett has formed an alliance with opposition leaders from the center, right and left, including Yair Lapid, Gadi Eisenkot, Avigdor Lieberman and Yair Golan, to work toward forming an alternative government.
But Bennett has previously held ministerial posts in Netanyahu’s governments, and a new alliance may not be out of the question. Earlier this month, Bennett sparked controversy by suggesting that Netanyahu could be part of a future government if he agreed to certain conditions, including the establishment of an official commission of inquiry into the October 7 failures and mandatory military service for all. Bennett later backtracked, The Times of Israel reported.
Any accommodation between the two could severely fracture the Eisenkot bloc.
Smaller Right-Wing Parties
How many of Israel’s smaller right-wing parties make it into parliament could also affect Netanyahu’s bloc’s chances of forming the next government.
Under Israel’s electoral rules, a party list must win at least 3.25% of the vote to enter the 120-seat Knesset. If smaller right-wing lists fail to clear that threshold, votes cast for them will not translate into seats, potentially reducing Netanyahu’s chances of securing a 61-seat parliamentary majority.
The parties that could fail to make the cut include the People of Israel Party, led by Ofer Winter; the Reservists–Economic Party alliance, led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha; the Haredi Public Party, led by Moti Leitner; and Israel First, led by Sharren Haskel. When a party fails to cross the threshold, votes that could otherwise have helped increase the representation of its political camp are effectively lost.
A total of 38 parties and lists are contesting the 2026 election, according to The Times of Israel.
Security Concerns Ahead of the Election
The security situation inside Israel and across the region is another factor that could shape the election, as warnings about the possibility of attacks before the vote mount.
Security concerns resurfaced days before the election following the shooting and killing of two Israeli soldiers near the city of Hebron. Netanyahu had warned that Israel’s enemies might try to attack the country before the election, without specifying the nature of the threat or identifying those he had in mind, according to The Jerusalem Post.
Later, military chief Eyal Zamir warned of possible security escalations “across all fronts,” The Times of Israel reported, adding that he did not give specifics. Meanwhile, Defense Minister Israel Katz said also that armed groups were seeking to disrupt the election by carrying out attacks, according to the newspaper. Netanyahu’s warnings have drawn accusations of fearmongering from the opposition. Opposition leader Yair Lapid called for clarification about the nature of the threat and said, after receiving a security briefing, that there was no reason to alarm the public.
Netanyahu has also accused Iran and its allies of attempting to influence Israel’s election through attacks and campaigns aimed at undermining public confidence in the security situation. He cited warnings from Israel’s foreign intelligence agency Mossad but did not disclose the details underpinning the claims, according to The Jerusalem Post.
Right-Wing Observers at Polling Stations
Netanyahu’s Likud party and one of its far-right coalition allies, Religious Zionism, plan to deploy about 2,000 activists at hundreds of polling stations in Arab towns, raising concerns about possible voter intimidation. The activists would not have any formal election-monitoring authority.
The two parties justified the plan by citing alleged vote fraud, The Times of Israel reported, while noting that there was no evidence to support such claims.
The Israel Democracy Institute warned that the presence of party activists could provoke voters or spark confrontations that might disrupt the voting process.
Adapted and translate from the original Arabic.
