You can read it in Arabic here, and check out MBN’s flagship Arabic-language Alhurra news platform (English version here).
This week’s edition of the briefing is a joint effort by our new Iran reporter Tara Rad, who is writing under a pseudonym, and me.
Here’s what you need to know: Iran’s security chief has warned that U.S.-linked technology sites across the region would be destroyed if war resumes. More than 30 countries, led by the U.S. and U.K., condemned Iran’s covert plots abroad. At home, the execution of musician and mountaineer Ali Sina Mostafavi and the arrest of human-rights lawyer Amirsalar Davoudi show no easing of the post-protest crackdown. Police in southeast Iran face a run of deadly attacks, and economic strain is showing. Some doctors now earn more driving passengers than treating patients, and the government is widening food aid to about 40 million people.
Find out more below, and share your thoughts, analysis and predictions with me at ailves@mbn-news.com. If you were forwarded the MBN Iran Briefing, please subscribe.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
The pulse of the American economy in this region runs through our part of the world … If war breaks out, many of these cables, data centers, artificial intelligence facilities, and numerous other sites will be destroyed.
— Supreme National Security Council secretary Mohsen Rezaei
TOP OF THE NEWS
Iran’s Security Chief Puts $2 Trillion of U.S.-Linked Tech Assets on its Target List
Supreme National Security Council secretary Mohsen Rezaei said in a Press TV interview that if war resumes, Iran is ready to destroy what he said was more than $2 trillion in U.S.-linked technology assets in the region.
“Many of these cables, data centers, artificial intelligence facilities, and numerous other sites will be destroyed,” he said.
He also said that more than “30 million Iranians have registered in [the] ‘Janfada’ (Sacrifice for Iran) Campaign to take up arms in the event of U.S. aggression.” Iran has a population of over 90 million.
Speaking of Iranian threats on foreign targets, over 30 countries, including the U.S. and the U.K., signed a “Joint Statement on Iran” that “condemn[s] in the strongest terms Iran’s use of violent attacks, including the acts of lethal plotting, arson, sabotage, cyber-attacks, and other hybrid activities against us and our partners.” The statement notes “the IRGC’s continued willingness to project hostile activity beyond its borders through covert networks and proxy actors” and mentions “the recent campaign of attacks across Europe targeting Jewish communities, Iranian journalists, and U.S. interests, claimed by Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamiya (HAYI).”
This came after an alleged terrorist plot against an RAF base at the end of September, previously covered in this newsletter. British Prime Minister Andy Burnham has said: “There are strong indications that Iran played a part.”
The U.K. also sanctioned two Iranian nationals: the IRGC’s head of counterespionage operations and a man it calls the “facilitator” of a criminal network involved in several plots against Iranian dissidents.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry rejected the allegations as an “ugly conspiracy to advance the anti-Iran campaign and evade accountability for Britain’s participation in the American-Zionist military aggression against the Iranian nation.”
Executed Wednesday: Ali Sina Mostafavi, Photo: Iran Human Rights.
More Executions and Arrests
On Wednesday, Iran executed Ali Sina Mostafavi, a 38-year-old musician and mountaineer who had climbed Mt. Everest. He’d been detained after the protests in January of this year. The judiciary’s website called him “one of the armed elements of the American-Zionist enemy affiliated with the hated monarchist movement” and accused him of “communication with hostile media affiliated with the Zionist regime.”
The office of Reza Pahlavi, the exiled former crown prince of Iran, posted on X about his execution, describing Mostafavi as “a man full of life, with achievements, ambitions, and a future.”
In a separate development, a lawyer who went to court on Sunday to represent a client was himself arrested.
Amirsalar Davoudi, a prominent Iranian human rights lawyer, was detained at the Revolutionary Court in Isfahan while representing Mahshad Kashani, who was imprisoned after the January protests. According to the head of the Isfahan judiciary, Davoudi was charged with publishing false information online, incitement to violence intended to undermine national security, and propaganda against the system. The charges relate partly to material he posted on Instagram.
One of those posts concerned his defendant Kashani and another detainee from the January protests named Alireza Sepahi. Davoudi had published an audio recording that he said documented the marriage of the two political prisoners shortly before Sepahi’s execution. Judicial authorities now dispute that account and describe the claim about the marriage ceremony as false. The judiciary’s website said that publishing the audio file “led to propaganda abuse by hostile media outlets.”
Sepahi was sentenced to death and later executed on Oct. 5.
Davoudi himself is no stranger to prison. He was arrested in 2018 after representing political prisoners and other defendants in sensitive cases and was originally sentenced to 30 years in prison and 111 lashes. His case has since gone through repeated reviews, retrials and appeals.
His latest arrest is not an isolated case.
On Oct. 8, the Human Rights Activists News Agency reported that Bahareh Aghaei, another lawyer, had been sentenced to 20 years in prison by a Tehran revolutionary court. She was arrested following the January protests and remains in Qarchak Prison. Other human rights groups have said her case is linked to her support for the protests and families of people killed during them.
Unrest on Iran’s Eastern Border
A string of shootings, roadside bombs and security operations has put renewed focus on Sistan and Baluchestan, Iran’s southeastern province bordering Pakistan and Afghanistan.
On Oct. 5, gunmen attacked a police patrol on the road between Bampur and Iranshahr, killing two officers and wounding another, according to Iranian media. Three days later, another police officer was killed when armed men attacked a patrol near Nosratabad. The following day a police vehicle struck a roadside bomb near Zahedan, killing Nosrat Eftekhari, a deputy provincial police commander responsible for social and cultural affairs.
Jaish al-Adl, a Sunni Baluch militant group active in southeastern Iran, claimed responsibility for the first attack, according to Iranian media. Iranian authorities routinely describe it as a terrorist group. But the Iranian reporting does not establish that the same group carried out all three attacks.
The state’s response has been swift. The day after the first attack, the Intelligence Ministry’s provincial office said security forces had dismantled three armed cells, killing two people and arresting ten. The ministry alleged those detained had received military, bomb-making and assassination training outside Iran before entering the country.
On Sunday, authorities announced the arrest of three people in Chabahar and Dashtiari whom they linked to Jaish al-Adl. Officials said they had identified a safe house and seized weapons and ammunition.
A day later, the regime executed Omar Dorostaran. Authorities described him as a key Jaish al-Adl operative who supplied weapons, safe houses and logistical support to attack teams. His case, however, was based on earlier attacks in Rask and Chabahar and predates this month’s violence.
The timing is politically sensitive. During and immediately after the 40 days of fighting before the April ceasefire, security authorities in Sistan and Baluchestan said they had detained dozens of people they accused of having links to armed groups and of preparing attacks coordinated with foreign airstrikes. Iranian security forces have continued to allege foreign involvement in armed activity in the southeast.
That concern also appears in establishment commentary. In an opinion piece published by establishment daily Ettelaat, columnist Seyed Masoud Razavi wrote that “there are plans to create unrest along the country’s borders using mercenaries.” He went on to blame Israel and jihadist networks.
But Razavi also argued that Sistan and Baluchestan’s problems cannot be solved through security measures alone, citing poverty, unemployment, smuggling and repeated drought.
There is a striking economic gap. A provincial planning official recently said Sistan and Baluchestan has about 3.8% of Iran’s population but accounts for only 0.8% of national GDP.
A billboard at the United Arab Emirates Embassy in Tel Aviv marking the anniversary of the signing of the Abraham Accords in 2021. Photo: AFP.
Iranian Media Turn Their Attention to the UAE and Israel
Relations between the United Arab Emirates and Israel are getting renewed attention in Iranian media.
The relationship itself is hardly new. The UAE established diplomatic relations with Israel in 2020 under the Abraham Accords, and the two countries have since developed extensive economic, diplomatic and security ties.
Iranian officials and commentators are increasingly discussing whether Israel’s relationships in the region could have security implications for Iran.
Recent state-affiliated commentary has been particularly critical. Pars Today described UAE–Israel relations as extending beyond diplomacy and trade into “security, intelligence and military” cooperation, and presented that relationship as a potential threat to Iran.
Reformist-leaning daily Shargh took a more pragmatic view in an earlier discussion of regional diplomacy. It noted that several countries maintain economic, diplomatic and other relations with Israel, while arguing that this does not necessarily prevent Iran from maintaining relations with those same governments.
The discussion is particularly sensitive because the UAE occupies an unusual place in Iran’s foreign relations. It remains an important commercial partner. At the same time, the UAE claims Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunb islands, which Iran controls and considers Iranian territory.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has accused the United States and Israel of using UAE territory and airspace against Iran and alleged that the UAE participated in some operations.
Local taxis wait for passengers at the Islamic Revolution Square in Tehran. Photo: AFP.
Driving Can Pay Better than Being a Doctor
Some Iranian doctors say they can make more money driving passengers than treating patients.
Shargh newspaper spoke to general practitioners who have taken second jobs or left medicine altogether because of low pay and the rising cost of running a practice. One young doctor recalled that, before starting military service, he earned roughly twice as much carrying passengers between Tehran and Karaj as he did working night shifts at a clinic.
Others told the newspaper they had turned to private tutoring or were considering caring for elderly people.
The numbers suggest the problem goes beyond a few unusual cases. Ahmad Valipour, head of the Iranian General Practitioners Association, told Shargh that about 35% of the country’s general practitioners are no longer practicing medicine. Reza Laripour, a spokesman for Iran’s Medical Council, put the number outside the main treatment system at more than 50,000.
According to Shargh, many general practitioners currently earn around 250 million to 350 million rials (approx. $97 to $136) per month while rent, staff and other costs have made opening or maintaining a private practice increasingly difficult.
Similar complaints extend to doctors still in training. In August, a Medical Council official said medical residents carry a substantial share of hospital treatment but are often not paid in proportion to their workload, and urged that others stop treating them as “cheap labor.”
Iranian women walk past a mural depicting Iranian revolutionary female soldiers in Tehran. Photo: AFP.
The Women Missing From Tehran’s Walls
Look at the murals covering Tehran’s streets and you will see plenty of men. Women are much harder to find.
A study by Tehran Municipality’s Center for Studies and Planning examined 100 permanent murals on busy central streets and found that just 15 featured women or female symbols.
But the researchers found that absence was only part of the story. When women did appear, they were most often shown as mothers, wives, survivors or caregivers, and frequently defined through their relationship with men.
Women as students, researchers, managers, athletes or contemporary artists were far less visible. Representations of women with an active social or political role were rarer still.
That matters because Tehran’s murals are a prominent part of the city’s public space, covering large walls along streets and major roads.
There is also an interesting contradiction in the municipality’s own research.
According to the study, Tehran’s official urban policies call for gender justice in the design of public spaces and for avoiding discrimination. Yet the researchers concluded that the women shown on the city’s walls remain limited to a relatively narrow set of roles.
Shopping for fruit and vegetables last week in Tajrish Bazaar, a traditional market in Tehran. Photo: AFP.
A Bigger Food Subsidy for 40 Million Iranians
Iran is preparing to help nearly half the country’s population — around 40 million people — buy food, according to Hamshahri newspaper.
The government has already increased food-purchasing credit for about 11 million people covered by its main welfare organizations. For millions more, getting the additional assistance requires another step.
Around 18.3 million heads of household, representing roughly 40 million people, are being asked to complete a self-declaration form through the government’s online portal. Access to the form is being activated for those who receive a government text message.
The scale of the program says something about the pressure on household budgets.
Hamshahri notes that the cost of an 11-item basket of basic goods covered by the program has roughly doubled, from around 25 million rials to more than 50 million (from approx. $10 to $20). It also cites official data showing extremely high inflation for food.
For people already covered by Iran’s main welfare organizations, the food credit has risen to 15 million rials (approx. $6). That is still well below the cost of the basic basket cited by Hamshahri.
The subsidy is not, by itself, a measure of poverty: Eligibility is determined through government criteria covering income and household circumstances.
