As of Wednesday evening in Israel, nearly half a million absentee ballots in Israel remain to be counted, a number that could determine not only which coalition captures a majority of seats, but also the influence of Arab parties in the Knesset.
The Central Election Commission in Israel estimates between 430,000 and 480,000 “double envelopes”—absentee ballots mailed in two nested envelopes—remain outstanding. Many of these are cast by Israeli Defense Force troops, reservists, prisoners, and diplomats abroad.
The inner envelope holds an anonymous ballot. It is placed inside a second envelope with identifying details to ensure voters do not vote twice.
With each seat in the Knesset representing roughly 40,000 votes, according to the Times of Israel, such double envelopes could reshape the current balance of power dramatically.
On Wednesday evening, with 90% of the votes counted, Netanyahu’s coalition was set to receive about 53 seats, while the opposition coalition, led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, would receive about 48. Arab-led parties were expected to win about 19 seats.
Exit polls suggest that no bloc will capture the 61-seats required for a majority.
Nineteen seats would be a record number for Arab-led parties. But the large number of uncounted absentee ballots could erode their gains because IDF soldiers’ votes make up most double envelopes. Palestinians Israelis are not required to serve in the IDF, so Arab parties tend to receive fewer votes from soldiers.
During the campaign, Eisenkot pledged to refuse to work with Arab parties. But he may need them to form a government if they maintain their projected seat count. If, however, double envelopes erode the number of expected seats held by Ra’am and the Joint List, Eisenkot’s bloc may be less likely to court them.
If neither side can assemble 61 seats, Netanyahu would remain as caretaker prime minister until Israel holds another election. There is precedent for this; between 2019 and 2022 Israel held five rounds of voting.
