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In this week’s MBN Agenda: With the midterms here, President Donald Trump faces a consequential decision on Iran. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is pressing for strikes while Vice President JD Vance and Qatari mediators pursue a diplomatic opening. Could the election results influence Trump’s next move?
Also this week: How the midterm results could reshape Washington’s Middle East policy over the next two years; the seven Senate races that could determine control of Congress; and a bitter dispute over Israel divides Democrats in Michigan. Meanwhile, regional powers scramble to prevent another escalation with Iran, and Rep. Darin LaHood tells MBN that Lebanon must move faster to disarm Hezbollah.
Shaiba alhamd Abdelrahman, Hani Al-Farash, Ghassan Taqi, Abubakar Siddique and Leila Bazzi contributed to this week’s Agenda.
Washington Signals
Iran War, Meet U.S. Ballot Box
President Donald Trump said he was “not in a rush” to resume the strikes against Iran, before the midterm elections. Now that Americans are casting their ballots, Trump confronts having to make a monumental choice himself. The Pentagon is ready for various scenarios, as Vice President JD Vance makes a fresh attempt to bring Tehran back to talks.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pressed Trump during a Saturday phone call to strike Iran as soon as the elections are over, Axios reported Sunday, citing American and Israeli officials. Trump reportedly wants to give diplomacy more time, a position that has frustrated the Israeli prime minister, now in a caretaker role as the jockeying for a new governing coalition begins.
The diplomatic route, meanwhile, is increasingly being associated with Vance, who under Trump’s direction wrote to Mohsen Rezaei, the powerful secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, about restarting negotiations. Rezaei’s response was receptive: “Their tone has completely changed,” he said Saturday, describing Vance’s letter as an encouraging sign from Washington. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also welcomed the outreach as “a positive step.”
The Pentagon has reinforced U.S. forces in the Middle East with air defenses and munitions, and Adm. Brad Cooper, the top American commander in the region, personally briefed Trump on Thursday on the options for renewed strikes against Iran, alongside Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, according to a Wall Street Journal report.
For now, Vance’s diplomatic channel remains open, even as the Pentagon readies itself to carry out any orders from Trump to launch strikes.
Iranian negotiators left Doha on Sunday after talks with Qatari mediators, and a draft proposal outlining a U.S.-Iran peace deal is already circulating. Tehran says its original seven-stage proposal could now be implemented within just two days, potentially reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the U.S. lifting its naval blockade on Iran and easing economic restrictions.
Washington wants negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program from the outset, while Tehran insists that the U.S. concessions must come first. Iran also refuses to surrender its stockpile of highly enriched uranium or transfer it abroad, as the United States has long insisted.
And Tehran tempered its initial enthusiasm over Vance’s letter on Monday, when Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said U.S. actions matter more than diplomatic language and accused Washington of repeatedly undermining potential deals.
Campaigning on Sunday in Kansas and Iowa — two traditionally deep-red Republican states where Senate races are unusually competitive this year — Trump asked voters to treat Tuesday as a referendum on his presidency.
“I really want you to pretend I’m on the ballot,” he told supporters in Kansas, where he also threatened more attacks on Iran: “We knocked out their nuclear capacity, and we can do it again in five minutes.”
The results in Kansas, Iowa and Texas could shape that decision either way. Republican wins in these races could strengthen Trump’s hand, while Democratic gains in these traditionally conservative states would amount to a significant rebuke beyond the ordinary midterm losses suffered by prior presidents. The scale of the wins or losses could also influence the political considerations surrounding his choice between fresh strikes on Iran and more diplomacy.
In Michigan, Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens endorsed Republican Mike Rogers on Sunday over her own party’s Senate nominee, Abdul El-Sayed, after a dispute involving Israel – a reminder of the persistent foreign-policy divisions that could shape how any Democratic majority engages with the Trump administration.
By Wednesday morning, the pause Trump imposed on further strikes will have passed. The question then remains: whether to give more time to talks or go back to outright war.
Quote of the day
The second round will be more dangerous, more destructive, and it will lead to nowhere. We have to draw lessons from the past.
— Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty, warning against more U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran at the Manama Dialogue in Bahrain on Saturday.
Foreign Policy Watch
Midterms Could Reshape U.S. Policy in Middle East
A voter waits in line before voting at a portable voting location set up to handle voters for the midterm elections, November 2, 2026. REUTERS/Mike Blak
Tuesday’s midterm elections could determine how much freedom Trump has to wage war with Iran, arm Israel and pursue regional deals during his final two years in office. A Democratic takeover of either chamber of Congress would bring greater scrutiny of military funding and initiatives such as the Board of Peace’s efforts in Gaza, and the civil nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia.
The Iran war has already been a target. Sen. Patty Murray, who would chair the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee if the Democrats take a Senate majority, said she opposed “rubberstamping a request to bankroll this war and whatever other misadventures Trump wants to get us into next.” Increasing opposition to weapons sales to Israel could complicate U.S.-Israel ties.
But if Republican senators can hold onto their seats in the heartland states of Kansas and Iowa — and even withstand the challenges in Texas, Alaska and Maine — Trump could present the wins as vindication and claim the political capital to pursue more strikes or demand tougher terms from Tehran.
Midterms Watch
The Seven Senate Races to Watch
Voters cast their ballots at a polling station on the first day of early voting for the mayoral election in Brooklyn, New York City, US, REUTERS/Angelina Katsanis
Democrats need to gain four Senate seats on Tuesday to take control of the chamber, with seven competitive races likely determining the outcome. The contests in Michigan, Texas, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, Maine and Kansas may decide whether Republicans retain the congressional majority during Trump’s final two years in office.
The war with Iran and American support for Israel have emerged as key campaign issues, alongside and partly linked to more usual concerns about the domestic economy. In Michigan, political scientist David Dulio told MBN that Democrat Abdul El-Sayed’s position on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has drawn often critical scrutiny from Jewish Democratic voters. In Iowa, meanwhile, rising diesel prices and the Iran war are putting pressure on an agricultural economy.
In Ohio, Republican Jon Husted is defending his seat against Democrat Sherrod Brown, a former senator. Economic concerns, fuel prices and the expansion of artificial intelligence data centers are on the ballot in a state Trump has carried three times.
Congress Watch
Arab and Muslim Candidates Seek a Bigger Voice
A man votes at a polling station during the Michigan primary elections, in Detroit, Michigan, U.S., August 4, 2026. REUTERS/Rebecca Cook
Dozens of Arab and Muslim Americans are running for office in the midterms, including Michigan’s Abdul El-Sayed who could become the first Muslim elected to the U.S. Senate if he can beat former Rep. Mike Rogers.
The candidates span the political spectrum. Not all of the Arab and Muslim Americans running are Democrats. In Arizona, physician Zuhdi Jasser, an American of Syrian descent, is running as a Republican against Democratic Rep. Greg Stanton in the state’s 4th Congressional District.
The campaigns come amid shifting political allegiances driven by the economy, Israel’s war in Gaza a rise in anti-Muslim rhetoric, and anti-semitism. A recent Arab American Institute survey found 59% of likely Arab American voters favored Democrats, compared with 26% backing Republicans. But nearly a third identified as independents, suggesting that party loyalties ultimately remain fluid.
Regional Watch
Middle East Scrambles to Prevent a New Exchange of Air Strikes
Iranian President and Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Mohsen Rezaei attend a meeting with Chief of Defence Forces of Pakista, Saudi Arabia’s Defence Minister and Turkish intelligence chief in Tehran, Iran, October 26, 2026. Iran’s Presidential website/WANA Via Reuters.
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan are leading the efforts to prevent another round of U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, amid fears that renewed fighting could devastate Gulf energy infrastructure and widen the war. Senior officials from the three countries met Iranian leaders in Tehran last week, and were soon followed this past weekend by Qatari mediators trying to broker talks.
As the midterms neared, American forces deployed thousands of additional troops and military assets to the region, and Gulf governments fear imminent Iranian retaliation against airports, oil facilities and other infrastructure.
But the three “Mecca pact” countries have limited influence over Tehran, Middle East Institute expert Gregory Gause told MBN: “Neither Turkey nor Pakistan can either by themselves, or jointly, pressure or persuade Iran to change its regional policies or rein in the Houthis” attacking Saudi Arabia, he said. Ultimately, preventing another escalation will depend on the prospects of a direct deal between Washington and Tehran.
Featured Conversation
‘If Not Now, When?’
Rep. Darin LaHood, a Republican from Illinois and co-chair of the U.S.-Lebanon Friendship Caucus, spoke with MBN Editor-in-Chief Leila Bazzi about disarming Hezbollah, U.S. support for Beirut and Israel’s occupation of Lebanon’s south.
On disarming Hezbollah: “The stars have aligned…. If not now, when?”
On Lebanon taking responsibility for its own military: “We can’t do everything for Lebanon. The Lebanese government has to be independent and take some of these actions on their own.”
On sending Lebanon’s army to Hezbollah strongholds: “It’s perplexing for many of us to think that the LAF can’t go into the Dahiya. That is simply not acceptable.”
On an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon: “That should be the ultimate goal. And I think it will be.”
