Welcome back to the MBN Iran Briefing.

Iranians have gotten used to having to wait – for bread, fuel, a car. Some would say they’ve been waiting for different leadership.

This week’s theme is waiting. We’ll look at how millions of Tehran residents are waiting to see what will happen when the water soon runs out. We’ll spend some time on the wait for what’s next in the seemingly never-ending saga of the Iranian nuclear program. And we’ll also be waiting to see the repercussions of the Iraqi elections held a couple of days ago.

Send tips, suggestions, or questions to me at ailves@mbn-news.com. If you were forwarded the newsletter, please subscribe. Read me in Arabic here.

  In this week’s edition I introduce a new feature – the “Iran quote of the week” – with what is surely one of the more unusual statements coming from the president of a country regarding the capital city, population 10 million:

 “If it doesn’t rain by late November, Tehran may have to be evacuated.” – President Masoud Pezeshkian

Fill ‘er up: Tehran’s Looming Water Emergency The looming water crisis I wrote about in last week’s edition of MBN Iran Briefing is worsening.

Aquifers and reservoirs around the capital are at their lowest levels in sixty years, and officials are warning that across-the-board water restrictions and even mass evacuation may be necessary.

 Independent experts and members of the city council say contingency planning is now underway: schools may close and public buildings could serve as emergency water distribution hubs. Tehranis are adapting with buckets and water tanks. Children are being sent with containers to public fountains. There’s a surge in overnight water cut-offs.

Social media platforms are flooded, as it were, with clips showing dry taps, dawn lineups, and adaptation routines, while Telegram channels circulate tips for water conservation and emergency access.

 If the autumn rains don’t arrive in the next weeks, officials estimate that Tehran’s supplies may run out entirely by late November, setting the stage for one of the largest urban evacuations in the region’s modern history. The crisis is not theoretical. It’s visible in daily routines, in anxiety, and in every dry faucet across the city.

Unsurprisingly, the blame game is in full swing. One theory for the impending disaster: Women’s lax adherence to hijab laws brought down divine punishment. Said one professor: “In the divine tradition, social sin and collective consent to it result in collective punishment.” This was echoed by Mohsen Araki, a member of Iran’s Assembly of Experts, who reminded Iranians that the “drought, water crisis and decreasing rainfall are signs of remembering God to wake us up from neglect and ignorance of Him.”

 More serious observers blame over-exploitation of groundwater, poorly planned dam construction, and losses in distribution networks as major contributors. Shortfalls in precipitation aren’t enough to account for the current crisis.

How might all this play out? My take:

Rolling Water Cut-Offs and Strict Rationing
A few days ago, preliminary rationing was announced for Tehran: in some neighborhoods of the city, water will be cut off from 8 pm to 6 am. There’s no proper notification system, though, so residents simply have to wait and see if anything emerges from their taps. Quotas and penalties could be enforced, while tanker deliveries offer minimal relief.

Partial or Full Evacuation of Tehran
President Masoud Pezeshkian was blunt in multiple televised statements – see the quote of the week above. But no real plan for such a mass evacuation is apparent.

Social Unrest and Mass Migration
Echoing the conclusions of many analysts, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) says that climate change in Iran “causes water scarcity, droughts … and displacement.” Protests, reverse urban-rural migration, population flight from water-stressed regions: anything can happen.

Collapse of Agricultural Output, Reliance on Imports
Agricultural water use may have to be sharply curtailed. Farmers may have to cut wheat and barley harvests, which would increase Iranian reliance on imports. This of course will worsen inflation and regional food insecurity. 

President Masoud Pezeshkian has thrown his weight behind a plan to divert water from agricultural areas to Tehran. The plan has come under sharp criticism. Said Shina Ansari, head of Iran’s Environmental Protection Organization, “a significant part of [the area’s] resources is being transferred to Tehran, which could lead to social conflicts.” Fatemeh Mohammadbeigi, a representative of that region in parliament, added that the water transfer “ignores the needs of farmers in the region and the province’s wetlands” and has consequences, such as desertification and increased dust. Qazvin produces a significant portion of the country’s eggs and meat, and the destruction of its water resources would mean the collapse of one of Iran’s centers of protein production.

Testing the regime’s legitimacy

If the government can’t provide something as basic as water, people may ask what it does in fact provide them. It’s a bit of a stretch to blame dry taps, as some have done, on “enemy attacks.”

Geopolitical Tensions and International Response
Iran has long-standing water disputes with two of its neighbors: Iraq and Afghanistan. Watch to see how these might be exacerbated by Iran’s domestic water crisis.

Waiting for the other shoe to drop: What next in the Iran-Israel-US-Europe nuclear saga?

It’s been five months since the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, and the region has entered what one analyst calls “a pause between wars.” As The New York Times’ Steven Erlanger reports, the state of Iran’s nuclear program remains mysterious: no negotiations, no inspectors, and no one’s sure whether the country’s remaining stockpile of enriched uranium is buried or hidden.​

Israel doesn’t believe the job is finished. The June strikes, U.S.-backed and heavily publicized, may have slowed Iran’s program but didn’t end it, according to Israeli intelligence, which also claims that Tehran has restarted enrichment at a new underground site known as Pickaxe Mountain. If that is confirmed, the Israeli war cabinet could greenlight another preemptive strike, especially with Prime Minister Netanyahu facing pressure to show strength.​

In Tehran, the mood is shifting from shock to resolve. Missile plants are back online, and proxy militias across Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen are on alert. Iranian commanders talk about firing 2,000 rockets at once next time, not 500. But the debate in Tehran isn’t settled. Some senior figures want to reopen indirect talks with Washington, while others argue that any concession now would be read as weakness.​

Across the Gulf, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are trying to cool the temperature. They’ve gained leverage in Washington and see opportunity in Iran’s isolation, but they also know another regional war would rattle oil markets and risk their own security.​

And this just in: yesterday, AP reported that the International Atomic Energy Agency has not been able to verify the status of Iran’s near weapons-grade uranium stockpile since the 12-day war. The report reminded us that IAEA head Rafel Grossi recently warned that Iran’s stockpile could allow Tehran to build as many as 10 nuclear bombs.

The 12-day war ended in June, but its sequel is already being written, just not yet played out.  

Iran waits as Iraqis show their weight

 On Tuesday, Iraqis voted in their sixth national elections since Saddam Hussein was overthrown in 2003. The ballots are being counted and the results are still not clear. We do know that voters delivered a surprise surge in turnout despite a boycott by Muqtada al-Sadr’s movement and a new facial recognition system replacing the once-iconic purple-inked fingers. The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) swept Erbil and locked down the Kurdish provinces, while the Coordination Framework, led by old guard figures like Nouri al-Maliki, Hadi al-Amiri, and technocrat Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, is jockeying for control of Iraq’s fragmented parliament. 

Tehran’s preferred bloc is holding the line, but there are cracks in the coalition and the base is shrinking. Iran’s role could soon shift from kingmaker to defense. Coalition bargaining and government formation talks are just getting underway, and official seat counts will trickle in over the coming days. Watch this space as Baghdad’s political class haggles over cabinet picks and ministries. UN Secretary-General António Guterres urged parties to move quickly, stressing “the importance of a timely and peaceful government formation process.”

 IRAN ABROAD

 IRAN-CHINA

 The Institute for National Security Studies, an Israeli think tank, has issued a report showing that China and Iran have accelerated joint defense-linked academic research, with nearly 750 collaborative publications between China’s top defense  universities and Iranian institutions. Many of the latter are connected to Iran’s security establishment and the Revolutionary Guard. The partnership covers a wide range of fields: nuclear energy, aerospace, missile technology, cyber, underwater vehicles, and much more. Iranian researchers are embedding in Chinese defense research hubs. This collaboration poses growing challenges for Western nonproliferation and export controls. The report urges enhanced monitoring and tighter controls on dual-use research.

IRAN–RUSSIA

This week, Iran and Russia took another step in cementing their Eurasian strategy. The two sides agreed to set up their first joint maritime consortium, aimed at boosting trade, streamlining shipping, and linking Caspian and Persian Gulf ports. Negotiations wrapped in Makhachkala, Dagestan, with officials spelling out plans for joint port operations and expedited cargo transit across the region. Iranian diplomats want Russian backing to develop Chabahar, a strategic port near the Gulf, and connect it by rail and road to the Caspian littoral. There’s talk of drawing Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan into the network. For Tehran, it’s not just about shipping containers, but also about deepening strategic partnerships. The text of the agreement is in the works. Stay tuned. 

FIVE BY FIVE

In this new section, I’ll share some of the most eyecatching stories from different Persian-language outlets in the past week.

The Reckoning: At a rowdy session of Iran’s parliament this week, President Masoud Pezeshkian faced his toughest grilling yet. Reformist Daily Shargh’s article “Day of Reckoning” laid out the drama in detail: lawmakers slamming the president for spiraling inflation, blackouts, and a contentious budget plan. Multiple MPs cited under-50% achievement on most institutional goals. Pezeshkian fought back, essentially arguing that you need more than wishful thinking to fix a broken system. One lawmaker wanted tougher subsidy cuts, another demanded urgent investment in social safety nets before next winter. Pezeshkian called for less grandstanding, more institutional backup. Another memorable quote from the president: “We cannot govern while people are hungry.”

Tragedy in Ahvaz. The city of Ahvaz, the epicenter of Iran’s Arab minority, is in mourning after the death of 20-year-old Ahmad Baledi, who self-immolated to protest the eviction of his family’s food kiosk, their sole source of income. Municipal authorities had ignored pleas to spare the kiosk. Ahmad’s suicide brought back to the surface complaints about longstanding discrimination against Khuzestan’s Arab population. Officials warned against politicizing the incident, but local activists and residents say insensitive enforcement feeds perceptions of ethnic bias and marginalization. Reformist-leaning Etemad reported that a local official lashed out at those “who want to exploit this incident to create division and stir up ethnic feelings and disrupt public peace and security.” It’s the fourth incident of self-immolation in Khuzestan province, Iran’s primary oil-producing region, in recent months.

 Tehran at the Market. Speaking of markets, one arena for Tehran’s survival is the city-run produce markets. Tehran’s major municipal daily Hamshahri’s “Market Power Play” profiled how local officials slash prices, hustle for better supply contracts, and try to forestall another season of angry queues. Neighborhood interviews exposed how little optimism most shoppers can muster, but at least fruit and potatoes are a little cheaper. The writer said that by reducing intermediary roles and strengthening direct links between producers and consumers, market prices have dropped by 25 to 30% compared to city averages, and up to 60% compared to luxury shops. The piece peeked inside meetings with city managers, tracking arguments over “fair pricing” and whether urban reforms can really take the sting out of Iran’s famously skyrocketing inflation.

Photo credit: Reuters

Women of Gold. Iranian women athletes won 340 gold medals over the past year, competing in more than 300 international events, including the Islamic Solidarity Games and other major tournaments. In “A Mine of Outstanding Talents,” official government outlet Iran Online showcased female karate practitioners, futsal champions, and record-breaking sprinters. You can spot a bit of a mood shift, with more than just a listing of medals and record times. For years, women’s sports were a footnote, with tenacious women playing catch-up while officials looked the other way. The article pushed for policy change: systematic talent discovery, improved facilities, and removing barriers.

 

Tehran complains about “fake news.” Iranian social media feeds lit up this week with rumors of missile launches and “operations imminent” headlines. With the headline “Fake News and the Illusion of an Imminent War Against Iran,” Tehran-based outlet WANA News complained that old footage and AI-generated deepfakes are being reposted as breaking news: “The headlines were alarming, and within hours, social media was flooded with speculation. Yet closer scrutiny revealed that what was being shared was not a war report, but rather a blend of misinterpretations, false attributions, and fabricated content.” 

Miscellany

 Rediscovered Persia: Manuscripts, Myths, and Diplomacy

Iranian historians in Isfahan made headlines by revealing rare manuscripts showing centuries-old ties between Iran and the Kazakh steppes. Kazakhstan’s Astana Times covered a series of new academic conferences and cultural exchanges, bringing together Persian and Central Asian scholars to map out deep historical links. For Tehran, the discoveries have diplomatic potential: as a talking point for regional cooperation and as evidence of Iran’s past role as a cultural crossroads. Worth noting: on a visit to meet U.S. President Donald Trump, Kazakh President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev announced that Kazakhstan will join the Abraham Accords.