What keeps the Middle East awake at night in 2026? To find out, we reached out to two dozen of the leading voices in regional statecraft—ranging from a former Israeli Prime Minister to veteran Arab diplomats and U.S. intelligence strategists.
We gave them two prompts.
What follows are their raw, unedited responses presented in alphabetical order by first name.
IN ONE WORD OR SHORT PHRASE, HOW WOULD YOU DESCRIBE THE STATE OF THE MIDDLE EAST AS IT ENTERS 2026?
“A region filled with both perils and promise.”
– Aaron David Miller, senior fellow at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
“Increasingly unstable and atavistic.”
– Alan Eyre, distinguished diplomatic fellow at the Middle East Institute and Former State Department diplomat
“A region at a crossroads — between multi-front escalation and deal-driven regional diplomacy under U.S. leadership. Entering 2026, the Middle East is torn between renewed multi-front conflict and a pivot toward regional diplomacy under a dominant, deal-driven US. The balance of power has shifted, but with many fronts still open, escalation remains a near-term risk and long-term stability is far from assured.”
– Amos Yadlin,
non-residential senior Fellow with the Harvard Kennedy School’s Middle East Initiative and former chief of the Israeli Military Intelligence Directorate
“”Unsettled” is the word I would use to describe the Middle East. The past 2 years in the region have witnessed extraordinary applications of military force, but in 2026 the ceasefires are tenuous. Political transitions are missing in Gaza and Lebanon, there are ongoing consolidations in post-Assad Syria and in post-election Iraq, and a high risk of further fragmentation in Yemen with the STC’s recent moves. The region is on a knife’s edge of further rounds of deadly conflict and could go either way.”
– Dana Stroul,
director of research and Shelly and Michael Kassen senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East (2021-2023)
“The Middle East enters 2026 in a deceptive calm. The immediate crises that defined 2024—Gaza’s devastation, Hezbollah’s war with Israel, Assad’s sudden collapse—have either paused or resolved in ways that create the appearance of a new regional order. But this stability is largely negative: it exists because of exhaustion, deterrence, or power vacuums rather than because durable political settlements have been reached.”
– Dania Arayssi,
non-resident senior fellow at the Middle East Center at the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy
“Precarious recalibration”
– Dr. Ebtesam Al Ketbi,
president and founder of the Emirates Policy Center
“The Middle East presently is in the brink of a major development, but I am not sure which direction. It can be a positive development that would move forward towards a stable and permanent ceasefire between Israel and Gaza and the introduction of the security force that will take over the military and political control in Gaza. It can be the opposite, it all depends on one person and this person is President Donald J. Trump. I believe that after he is done with Maduro he will return back to Gaza and not forget that he promised that we will move forward towards the second phase. I hope that he will do it.”
– Ehud Olmert,
former Israeli prime minister
“The Middle East is entering 2026 as it emerges from a prolonged period of war and multi-front conflict. The attempt to militarily eradicate Israel has failed, while the Iranian–Hezbollah–Hamas axis has been severely degraded. Syria has been freed from the Assad regime, and protests in Iran may signal renewed hope for the Iranian people as well. Looking ahead to 2026, I hope Israel will be able to restore its international standing, which has been significantly eroded, and revive the momentum of normalization with pragmatic countries across the region.”
– Eyal Hulata,
former Israeli national security advisor
“Fragile, with a higher risk of deterioration than improvement.”
– Ezzedine C. Fishere,
senior lecturer at Dartmouth College and MBN columnist
“Heading into 2026, a realistic characterization of the Middle East is “volatile.” The new Trump National Security Strategy released in November paints a triumphant picture of the region’s problems as being mostly solved. That’s too optimistic by half. In reality, a great many issues remain in flux – from security in Syria to the state of Iran’s strategic programs to Israel’s ability to truly curb Hamas. Each could easily flare up in coming months, and if recent history is any indication some assuredly will.”
– Ilan Berman,
senior vice president of the American Foreign Policy Council
“Uncertainty. Region has seen the near total defeat of the two biggest security threats-Iran and proxies, and ISIS, but is not clear on path forward to consolidate this success-previous such points-after Yom Kippur War and Kuwait War, in the end did not launch region on path of sustained stability and security.”
– James Jeffrey,
former ambassador to Iraq and distinguished fellow at The Washington Institute
“In my opinion, a short phrase that sums up the state of the Middle East at the end of 2025: “Tactical conflicts and coercions without strategic resolutions. By this I mean that geopolitical events in the region are dominated by short-term, tactical confrontations and coercive acts in the absence of strategic, political or security settlements that would resolve the underlying conflicts or prevent their repetition.”
– Kirsten Fontenrose,
nonresident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative in the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs and former NSC director for Gulf affairs
“Stabilization through fragmentation and friction – new national and state forms that will prefer joining the uprising’s new regional architecture (Somaliland and South Yemen as examples) where Turkey, Iran, China and Russia will try to interfere and prevent it or sabotage.”
– Kobi Michael,
senior researcher at INSS and Misgav Institute
“The region is caught up in competition that is defining new power relationships, involving Israel, Turkey, Iran, and leading Gulf states, above all Saudi Arabia. So, it’s in a highly unstable transition.”
– Michael Young,
senior editor at Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut and editor of Diwan, Carnegie’s Middle East blog.
“A phase of high strategic liquidity and a reconfiguration of the balance of power”.
– Mohamed Hegazy,
former assistant minister of foreign affairs of Egypt
“Compute is the new oil”
– Mohammed Soliman,
author of ‘West Asia”’ and senior fellow at the Middle East Institute
“What I see in the region is exhaustion from prolonged wars—in Gaza, Sudan, and Yemen—coupled with a faint but real hope that these terrible conflicts might finally end, offering respite to the innocent civilians who have suffered so much. That is why I believe President Trump’s peace agenda is highly promising and should be pursued with full force.”
– Mustafa Akyol,
senior fellow at the Cato Institute and MBN columnist
“Post-Resistance Realignment”
– Paul Shaya,
professor at GWU Elliott School of International Affairs and former senior intelligence executive
“Nothing is resolved: Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iran, Yemen”
– Ryan Crocker,
former U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Syria, Lebanon, and Kuwait and chair of MBN’s Board of Directors
“I hope that the next year will be a year of opportunities rather than a year of missed opportunities. There is now an opportunity to get rid of radical ideologies in Syria, in Lebanon and in Iran. I hope that those societies in those countries will succeed to overthrow all these radical ideologies from their countries and bring prosperity to the region.”
– Sarit Zehavi,
president of the Alma Research and Education Center
“Fragile, volatile, and dangerous.”
– Theodore Kattouf,
former ambassador to Syria
“About the only certainty is the leadership picture at the end of 2026 won’t be the same as it is on January 1. What the Mideast needs most in 2026 is good leadership.”
– Tom Warrick,
nonresident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative of the Atlantic Council
WHO OR WHAT DO YOU SEE AS THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL ‘SPOILER’ IN THE REGION THIS YEAR?
“Biggest spoilers in the region are the absence of leaders in Israel, among Palestinians, and in key Arab states who are far more concerned with keeping their seats than focusing on achieving the peace, security and prosperity that their citizens deserve.”
– Aaron David Miller,
senior fellow at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
“The biggest potential spoiler in the region is the continued venality and lack of critical thinking among its leaders.”
– Alan Eyre,
distinguished diplomatic fellow at the Middle East Institute and Former State Department diplomat
“Iran is the central spoiler, accelerating its nuclear program, rebuilding missiles and proxies, and considering retaliation against Israel — though its deep internal crisis offers a rare chance that this threat could weaken. Iran remains the Middle East’s primary potential spoiler. Despite the setback it suffered in the 12-day war, Tehran is accelerating efforts to revive elements of its nuclear program, rebuild its ballistic missile arsenal, and reassert its regional proxy network. In the short term, Iran’s deep internal crisis may actually increase the temptation to divert attention outward through escalation or retaliation against Israel.
Over the longer term, however, the same internal pressures — economic strain, elite fragmentation, and public discontent — could erode the regime’s capacity to sustain its role as a regional spoiler, potentially opening space for a different regional dynamic.”
– Amos Yadlin,
non-residential senior Fellow with the Harvard Kennedy School’s Middle East Initiative and former chief of the Israeli Military Intelligence Directorate
“The biggest spoiler is Iran. The regime is unprecedentedly weak at home and abroad. It could choose diplomacy and negotiations, which would likely enable regime survival and meaningful support for the Iranian people. Or it could double down on its failed strategy of a pursuing nuclear weapons, rebuilding its missile program, and reconstituting its terrorist network abroad — all of which will likely prompt Israel and the US to strike again, and hold the region back from moving away from weak states and persistent conflict and toward sustainable political outcomes.”
– Dana Stroul,
director of research and Shelly and Michael Kassen senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East (2021-2023)
“Hezbollah is weakened but not defeated—and that’s precisely what makes it dangerous in 2026.
In Lebanon, the ceasefire holds but the state can’t enforce disarmament or fill the security vacuum if Hezbollah steps back. Hezbollah doesn’t need to restart the war to play spoiler—it can obstruct state-building politically, retain hidden capacity, or wait for Israeli missteps to justify rearmament. In Syria, Assad’s fall cut Hezbollah’s lifeline—no more Iranian weapons corridor or strategic depth. But it still has networks near the border and ties to Shia communities. It could back groups resisting the new government, keep the border zone unstable, or play sectarian protector if minorities feel threatened. The wild card is Iran. If Tehran tries to rebuild its regional network, Hezbollah becomes more aggressive. If Iran pulls back, Hezbollah may have to adapt. That uncertainty keeps everything unstable. The bottom line is that Hezbollah can disrupt both Lebanese and Syrian transitions without firing a shot—and has every incentive to do so.”
– Dania Arayssi,
non-resident senior fellow at the Middle East Center at the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy
“Uncontrolled escalation between Iran and Israel. By ‘uncontrolled escalation,’ I mean a crisis that starts small and ‘limited’ but then spreads faster than leaders can contain it—because each side keeps retaliating, misreading the other’s red lines (South Yemen as an example).”
– Dr. Ebtesam Al Ketbi,
president and founder of the Emirates Policy Center
“The potential spoiler in the Middle East is unfortunately made of two: one is Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel. He seems to be anxious to carry on the military operations in Gaza with the argument that it needs to disarm completely Hamas and less then total control of all the weapons that are in potential possession of Hamas it is not sufficient. That may lead into another military confrontation. The other spoiler is Hamas. Hamas doesn’t want to be disarmed and therefore it will make every possible effort not to abide by the expectations of the international community and the United States and Israel for complete disarming. So both sides can be on the same ground. They may want to have an additional military confrontation in order to avoid that which is expected from them.”
– Ehud Olmert,
former Israeli prime minister
“The Iranian regime—largely responsible for turmoil in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen; for subversion across the Gulf; and as the architect of the ‘ring of fire’ strategy against Israel—has been hit, but not defeated. Its nuclear, missile, and terror ambitions have not been put to rest, and efforts to restore those capabilities are already underway. A concerted effort is needed to push back against this spoiler of regional stability, security, and prosperity.”
– Eyal Hulata,
former Israeli national security advisor
“Hamas, by successfully derailing the Gaza reconstruction plan, with obvious disastrous consequences for both the security and humanitarian situations in Gaza and the region at large.”
– Ezzedine C. Fishere,
senior lecturer at Dartmouth College and MBN columnist
“In terms of spoilers, I’d identify two. The first is Qatar, which has drawn closer to the U.S. (and is now drawing closer to countries like Saudi Arabia) in ways that will complicate both Western policy and progress on regional integration. The second is China, which has managed to establish a formidable economic beachhead in the region in recent years – and whose continued engagement will help shape how Gulf nations interact with America.”
– Ilan Berman,
senior vice president of the American Foreign Policy Council
“Israel – country is uncertain how to sustain its dramatic victory-go it alone based on military strength or join US, Arab states, eventually PA and Turkey in a diplomatic-security regional approach. (Note-some may list here question of US commitment but I disagree – think Trump and team committed to region, short of land combat deployments and nation building)”
– James Jeffrey,
former ambassador to Iraq and distinguished fellow at The Washington Institute
“In terms of the biggest potential spoiler of 2026, I’m unfortunately going to award the prize for another year in a row to the Quds Force. They will see actionable opportunities to continue to play the spoiler by perpetuating division in Yemen, East Africa, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq. To achieve their goal of keeping the region destabilized so the IRGC and the regime retain leverage, the Quds Force won’t need to ignite new conflicts, they’ll just need to prevent conflicts from being resolved. (This will likely play out even inside Iran, if current protests turn out to be more impactful than previous rounds of end-of-year protests in Iran were.)”
– Kirsten Fontenrose,
nonresident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative in the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs and former NSC director for Gulf affairs
“Turkey that seeks to renew its Ottoman hegemony, backed, supported and admired by president Trump and broadly deployed in the broader Middle East and East Africa.”
– Kobi Michael,
senior researcher at INSS and Misgav Institute
“Israel, which believes it has the military might allowing it to be the region’s hegemon, and which will do everything to prove it through possible wars against Iran and in Lebanon, a continuation of military operations in Gaza and the West Bank, and through ongoing efforts to fragment Syria.”
– Michael Young,
senior editor at Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut and editor of Diwan, Carnegie’s Middle East blog
“Continued conflict management without political settlements, producing a more violent and complex landscape, compounded by the absence of a comprehensive regional vision for security and stability.”
– Mohamed Hegazy,
former assistant minister of foreign affairs of Egypt
“Uneven AI power: Not everyone is moving at the same speed. The gap between countries that can build and deploy AI at scale and those that can’t risk becoming a new source of political and economic tension.”
– Mohammed Soliman,
author of ‘West Asia”’ and senior fellow at the Middle East Institute
“The greatest risk—one I would deeply regret—would be Syria’s descent back into a version of its devastating civil war. I say this as someone who has welcomed the fall of the monstrous Assad regime and who remains hopeful for a peaceful, stable, and unified Syria that opens itself to the world in pursuit of liberty and prosperity. It would be a profound tragedy if these hopes were dashed. Therefore, helping Syria move forward should be a critical task for every regional power and for the United States.”
– Mustafa Akyol,
senior fellow at the Cato Institute and MBN columnist
“The biggest spoiler in 2026 is not renewed war, but unresolved politics—particularly Iran’s leadership transition, Israel’s domestic political uncertainty, and the absence of a Palestinian endgame. Together, they could stall a region otherwise moving toward pragmatism and peace”
– Paul Shaya,
professor at GWU Elliott School of International Affairs and former senior intelligence executive
“The U.S. What we do or don’t do will have a dramatic impact on the region. And what we will do is very hard to predict.”
– Ryan Crocker,
former U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Syria, Lebanon, and Kuwait and chair of MBN’s Board of Directors
“Israel, with U.S. backing, expects to consolidate its position as the regional hegemon. Iran, Hizballah, the Houthis, Occupied Palestinian Territories are in its crosshairs. Israel will become further isolated internationally but will remain on its current course if Netanyahu or his coalition allies can win yet another election.”
– Theodore Kattouf,
former ambassador to Syria
“Hamas and Iran are the biggest potential spoilers.Hamas is about to choose a new leader. If Ali Al-Amoudi is chosen head of the Gaza branch, it will probably mean no disarmament, and prevent the reconstruction of Gaza. Externally there is campaign between Khaled Meshaal, who would orient more towards the Arab world, or Khalil al-Hayya, who aligns more with Iran and the IRGC QF. They still retain weapons and are intimidating the Gazans under their control. They are starting to rebuild authority in west Gaza.”
– Tom Warrick,
nonresident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative of the Atlantic Council
Ringo Harrison
Ringo Harrison is a content coordinator based in Washington DC. He is a recent graduate from Lund University in Asian Studies. He previously worked at American Purpose.
