As the curtain fell on Oman’s Tenth Five-Year Plan at the end of 2025, the Sultanate appeared to be closing a transitional phase rather than merely concluding a routine planning cycle. Launched in 2021 as the first executive instrument of Oman Vision 2040, the plan was designed to translate strategic objectives into measurable projects, against a regional backdrop marked by rapid economic shifts and uneven fiscal pressures.
The plan began with a budget of 6.4 billion Omani rials (about $16.64 billion), before gradually rising to roughly 9.7 billion rials (around $25.22 billion)—an increase of more than 51 percent, according to official data. The government says this expansion reflected an ability to reallocate resources in response to economic developments without altering the overall direction of the vision.
Over five years, 388 out of 416 listed projects were implemented, spanning the pillars of people and society, economic development, governance, and environmental sustainability. Public debt declined to about 34 percent of GDP, according to official figures, while the fourth periodic report on Vision 2040 indicated that roughly 74 percent of interim targets had been achieved.
At the same time, cumulative investment in economic, free, and industrial zones reached about 20.9 billion rials (approximately $54.34 billion). Green hydrogen projects expanded to eight initiatives, the Oman Global Financial Centre was established with an independent legislative framework, an investment and trade court was activated, and programs were launched to support startups and small and medium-sized enterprises.
Recently, the Muscat Stock Exchange recorded its best weekly performance since 2014, driven by expectations that the market could be upgraded to “emerging market” status on the MSCI index. Analysts expect such an upgrade to bring immediate inflows of about $350 million, with additional gradual inflows that could reach $970 million if completed—an outcome widely seen as a sign of improving investor confidence.
A Gulf Comparison
Oman’s trajectory comes at a time when other Gulf states have reassessed some of their major projects. In Saudi Arabia, the scope of the Red Sea tourism project was scaled back as part of a review of spending priorities, work on “The Cube” was halted, and NEOM withdrew from hosting the 2029 Asian Winter Games due to delays in the Trojena project. Riyadh says these steps reflect technical and financial reviews aimed at calibrating the pace of implementation.
Assessing the fiscal capacity of Gulf states if oil prices were to stabilize at around $60 per barrel, Eckart Woertz, director of the GIGA Institute for Middle East Studies in Hamburg, says that “Qatar, the UAE, and Kuwait can balance their budgets at that level—but only just.” He adds that “Saudi Arabia and Oman, and especially Bahrain, would need to borrow or repatriate foreign assets to finance their spending.”
In this context, a key question emerges: does Oman’s gradual, indicator-driven approach help explain the steadiness of its implementation path, compared with regional experiences that have revised their plans more than once?
Dr. Ahmed Keshoub, chairman and founder of Al-Moasher for Economic and Financial Consulting, says what distinguishes the Omani experience is the “clarity of the trajectory from the outset.” He notes that the vision did not remain a theoretical framework but was translated into successive five-year plans, most recently with the launch of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan (2026–2030). He argues that a monitoring system based on national performance indicators and periodic reports has “created a state of institutional discipline in which numbers—not impressions—are the reference point for evaluation.”
He adds that political and administrative stability made it possible to implement fiscal and structural reforms over an extended period without sharp social or financial disruptions.
According to the International Monetary Fund, public debt fell to between 35 and 36 percent in 2024–2025 after exceeding 60 percent in 2020, while non-oil activities posted growth of around 3.5 percent in 2025. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings also raised the Sultanate’s outlook to stable or positive in 2024–2025, signaling improved creditworthiness, according to official Omani data.
Keshoub argues that gradualism “was not a slowdown in reform, but rather a method of risk management and confidence-building, step by step.”
Recovery After the Shock
When Sultan Haitham bin Tariq assumed power in January 2020, the country was on the brink of a crisis: the COVID-19 pandemic and a sharp drop in oil prices. The economy contracted and fiscal pressures mounted, prompting the government to adopt spending controls and reorder priorities.
In this context, Vision 2040 emerged as the strategic framework for medium- and long-term recovery. Media and economic analyst Youssef Al-Houti says the vision can be read “as a comprehensive project to reshape the state and society, not merely a plan to diversify income sources.”
He explains that its four pillars begin with investment in people—education, skills, entrepreneurship, and the empowerment of youth and women—and extend to building a diversified economy, entrenching modern institutional governance, and achieving balanced, geographically and environmentally sustainable development.
Al-Houti sees this transformation as a gradual shift from the rentier-state model to an “enabling state” that prepares the regulatory environment for the private sector and society to lead growth.
Progress Indicators and Challenges
Even so, reliance on energy remains evident. Keshoub says oil and gas contribute roughly 30 to 35 percent of GDP, while their revenues account for about 65 to 70 percent of total government revenues—around 67 percent in 2024–2025—according to Ministry of Finance data. He considers this a sign of relative progress but also notes that the path toward reducing dependence is not yet complete.
In a structural comparison of Gulf economies, Woertz says “the UAE has the most diversified economy in the region, while Kuwait is known for its notable lag, as it still relies heavily on oil revenues alone.”
He adds that over the longer horizon, “the UAE may appear to be in an advanced position today, but its growth model—like that of the rest of the GCC—is energy-intensive.” He believes that “Oman may have significant potential to build a more diversified economy over the next twenty years.”
Among the challenges Keshoub lists are the sensitivity of revenues to energy price fluctuations, accelerating private-sector growth, aligning education with labor-market needs, and improving the efficiency of state-owned enterprises. Still, he stresses that the Omani approach is based on “anchoring the strategic direction while keeping implementation tools flexible”—that is, adjusting policies according to indicators without changing overarching goals.
In the coming years, the Sultanate aims to strengthen manufacturing and renewable energy, targeting about 30 percent of the electricity mix by 2030—alongside tourism, the digital economy, and logistics.
As countries across the region continue to test different development models, the Omani experience may represent what some economists call a “quiet transition”: a gradual shift grounded in fiscal discipline and institutional measurement, away from shocks or abrupt transformations.
The article is a translation of the original Arabic.
Sakina Abdallah
A Saudi writer, researcher, and TV presenter
Ringo Harrison
Ringo Harrison is a content coordinator based in Washington DC. He is a recent graduate from Lund University in Asian Studies. He previously worked at American Purpose.
