Welcome back to the MBN Friday Briefing, our end-of-week look at what drove the news in the Middle East.
This week, the fallout from the American raid in Venezuela that deposed President Nicolas Maduro hit home with his allies in Beirut and Tehran. The other huge story to open 2026 is and will continue to be the growing protest movement in Iran. We have you covered on both.
There are two features, exclusive to MBN, that also stood out this week.
As part of our ongoing work on the Great Power rivalry playing out in the Middle East, MBN unveiled the third installment of its China Tracker. This week, we focus on the diplomatic theater. Drawing on multiple sets of data, our China team shows how Beijing has built relationships with leaders in the Middle East in very different ways from America. It’s playing out under the surface, and it’s effective.
Check out as well our 2026 Expert Panel, where we brought together the smartest people we know to tell us where the Middle East is and where it’s headed. Bonus question: Who’s going to be the biggest spoiler of 2026?
The Friday Briefing is part of a roster of MBN’s newsletter offerings. Every Tuesday, the Agenda goes deep on what Washington’s doing and thinking in the Mideast. Thursdays, Andres Ilves brings incisive analysis and news from Iran. You can subscribe to them all here.
This newsletter is published as well in Arabic. We want to hear from you at thebriefing@mbn-news.com.
This Week On MBN
China’s Diplomatic Playbook
In the Middle East, Beijing speaks softly and carries no stick. But the Chinese have a quiet but clear diplomatic strategy. The intention is to secure the steady flow of the region’s oil to China, the largest customer for the Mideast. China has also become its largest trading partner. The new installment of the MBN China Tracker documents the engagement visit by visit. It is paying off in other ways too. The Arab world has aligned itself with China on nearly all the biggest issues.
Watch MBN China Editor Min Mitchell explain the findings. Check them out for yourself.
Read Jim Snyder’s story on China’s ‘D’ Mideast strategy: No drama, but lots of (yawn) diplomacy.
MBN Experts Weigh in on 2026
So who will be the biggest spoiler in the Middle East this year? Iran. America. Israel. Syria. Hezbollah. Even Turkey. Our expert panel of 22 of the best brains on the region has a variety of strong opinions. Looking ahead this year, they also see a region – as Aaron David Miller said – filled with “both perils and promise.”
Join the discussion to find out who picked whom to spoil the party this year.
Hezbollah’s Maduro Hangover
Venezuela for years was the gateway for Iran and its proxies to Latin America, and a key ally. The government in Caracas issued thousands of passports to Hezbollah operatives to facilitate travel and sanctions evasion.
Read MBN’s Asrar Chebaro’s report.
Watch MBN’s Rami Al Amine’s video: Why Hezbollah and Iran’s Axis Are Mourning Maduro?
Elusive Peace
Israel and Syria resumed U.S.-mediated security talks under pressure from President Donald Trump. Despite technical understandings and new coordination mechanisms, political and security gaps leave a comprehensive agreement out of reach.
A Likud lawmaker outlines to MBN’s Yehia Kassem Tel Aviv’s firm conditions for any deal.
Islam’s Shifting Arc in Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa has become a global center of religiously motivated violence. In his weekly program on MBN’s flagship Arabic-language Alhurra network, Ibrahim Essa notes that Islam was spread in Africa through trade and scholarship. What a contrast with today.
Watch Ibrahim Essa’s video: Transformations of Islam in Africa: From Peaceful Spread to Extremism
Closer:
“The Middle East is on the brink of a major development. It can be a positive one that would move the region towards a stable and permanent ceasefire, and it can be quite the opposite. It all depends on one person and this person is President Donald J. Trump.”
— Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Our Expert Panel on 2026.
