Like many countries around the world, Gulf states are closely monitoring developments in Iran. But their concern goes further, reflecting deep anxiety about the potential repercussions of any escalation that could trigger a security shock inside the country.
While all members of the Gulf Cooperation Council share these concerns, the first official Gulf response came from Qatar. On Jan. 13, Foreign Ministry spokesman Majed al-Ansari said that any slide toward escalation would have catastrophic consequences extending beyond the region’s geographic boundaries. He said Doha is engaged in active communication channels with all relevant parties, particularly neighboring countries, to contain tensions and prevent them from spiraling into open confrontation.
Qatar’s position aligned with reporting by The Wall Street Journal the same day that Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Oman had clearly informed the White House of their opposition to any military action against Iran. Such a strike, the newspaper warned, would destabilize the region, threaten the security of energy markets and have serious repercussions for the global economy.
According to the report, Saudi Arabia has officially confirmed that it will not allow its airspace to be used for any strikes against Iran.
Official Gulf positions also appear to mirror public sentiment. Questions have increasingly circulated among Gulf citizens and on social media platforms about whether the fall of Iran’s ruling system or the outbreak of a wide-ranging war against the country—if either were to occur—would serve the interests of GCC states and their peoples, or instead harm them.
Gulf Readings of the Moment
Unsurprisingly, popular protests in Iran have drawn intense attention across the Gulf, alongside close monitoring of positions taken by the United States and Western countries.
This anticipation has been reflected in the media and on social platforms, where commentary and in-depth questions have proliferated about the future of the region and the implications of any fundamental shift in what many describe as the “Iranian equation.”
In this context, Saudi writer Mohammed al-Rutyan offered a striking perspective in a post on the platform X, moving beyond the question of whether the Iranian system might fall to what would come after. “Don’t ask whether the Iranian system will fall—the question is wrong,” he wrote. “Ask: When will it fall? How will it fall? Who is the alternative? How much chaos will the dust of its fall create in the atmosphere? The Arabian Gulf must prepare for what’s coming… prepare.”
Emirati writer Abdulghafar Hussein, in a post on X, warned of the consequences of any military confrontation with Iran. “It is better for these [Gulf] states to adhere to neutrality,” he wrote. “Iran and the Arab Gulf states are neighbors, with relations, friction and shared regional interests. Popular wisdom says: If your neighbor’s house catches fire, your own fire is not far away.”
Dahi Khalfan, the deputy chief of Dubai Police, offered his own reading of events and their causes. In a post on X, he said that what is happening in Iran today is the result of the government’s preoccupation with wars and its spending of billions of dollars on them, while the population is in dire need of meeting basic living requirements. In another post, he added: “Iran’s mullahs busied themselves with exporting the revolution, and in the end the people revolted against them.”
Political and Security Concerns
Amid the intensifying debate over possible scenarios for Iran’s future, the strategic researcher Mohammed Ibrahim told the Alhurra website that the most serious risk associated with the collapse of the Iranian system would be the emergence of a broad security vacuum. Such a vacuum, he said, could invite increased intervention by major powers—chief among them the United States, Russia, China and Turkey—turning the Gulf region into an arena of intense and open international competition.
Ibrahim also warned that the disintegration of Iranian state institutions, including the army, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and security agencies, could lead to cross-border security chaos, accompanied by the spread of weapons and the growing influence of regional militias.
Others offer a different interpretation and question the underlying premises. Among them is Qatari academic Ali al-Hail, who told Alhurra that the scale of the protests “cannot be considered a decisive indicator when compared to Iran’s population.” He argued that “the toppling of images of certain symbols, such as Qassem Soleimani, is not in itself sufficient evidence of a comprehensive popular uprising,” pointing to the possibility of infiltrators—without endorsing the official Iranian narrative.
Anxiety Over Future Scenarios
U.S. President Donald Trump sharply escalated his rhetoric toward Tehran in an unprecedented move, issuing a public message on the Truth Social platform urging Iranians to continue protesting and to remember the names of those committing abuses against them. “Help is on the way,” he wrote.
This public American discourse goes beyond traditional political pressure, signaling a clear shift toward harsher language and increasing the likelihood that the region could edge closer to a confrontation scenario, with all the potentially wide-ranging regional consequences that would entail.
Ibrahim said these developments in Iran and the international reactions to them require “raising levels of security readiness and increasing financial allocations for the security and defense sectors.”
Politically, he noted that the fall of the Iranian system, if it occurs, would usher in a complex phase requiring a redefinition of relations with a “new Iran.” Al-Hail did not rule out the possibility that Gulf states could face international pressure to participate in reconstruction efforts and infrastructure modernization in Iran, alongside “engagement in new regional security arrangements that may be reshaped under different balances of power.”
On the social front, he warned of the potential for heightened sectarian tensions, particularly in countries characterized by religious diversity. He also pointed to the possibility of limited refugee flows, which could impose additional security and humanitarian challenges on Gulf states.
Sakina Abdallah
A Saudi writer, researcher, and TV presenter
