Bloodbath in the Shadows

Welcome back to the MBN Iran Briefing, a new offering from the premier Arabic-first American news and commentary platform about the Middle East.

It’s day 19 of the protests that began with shopkeepers in Tehran on Dec. 28 and quickly swept the nation. As I write, the government is engaged in a brutal crackdown on the demonstrators. Details about the killings are emerging only slowly, in defiance of a comprehensive communications blackout. What happens next could well depend on U.S. President Donald Trump, who continues to urge the protestors on.

We’ll look at all of this and more.

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Quote of the week

“Iranian Patriots, KEEP PROTESTING — TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!! Save the names of the killers and abusers. They will pay a big price. I have cancelled all meetings with Iranian Officials until the senseless killing of protesters STOPS. HELP IS ON ITS WAY. MIGA!!!”

— U.S. President Donald Trump

Top of the News

What started as an economic protest on Dec. 28 has now devolved into a full-scale assault on demonstrators. The world now waits to see what President Trump means by “help is on its way.”

Let’s drill down on three aspects of the unprecedented developments in this country of 90-plus million:

Photo: Reuters

The regime’s crackdown has been exceptionally violent and deadly. The respected Norway-based Iran Human Rights organization keeps increasing its estimate of the number of protesters killed by state forces. Its latest calculation puts the figure at 734, with thousands more injured. One international Persian-language broadcaster, citing inside sources, puts the figure at a staggering 12,000. Even the regime says that 2,000 people have been killed during the protests, according to Reuters, though that figure likely includes security personnel the regime claims to have been killed by demonstrators.

Yesterday, the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) reported that at least 2,571 people have been killed during the protests thus far.

Regime security forces appear to be seeking to blind demonstrators. The Guardian reports that an ophthalmologist in Tehran has documented more than four hundred eye injuries from gunshots in a single hospital.

For a vivid picture of the horrors being visited on the Iranian people, check out this first-hand account by an Iranian doctor. CNN reports the doctor noticing that the types of injuries he was treating at the hospital changed overnight from Thursday into Friday: “It was as if an order had been given: ‘Use live rounds now,’” the doctor said, adding that when he heard the sound of gunfire, it was not the sound of a Kalashnikov but of heavy machine guns. The following day colleagues told the doctor they’d admitted numerous people who had been shot in the face at close range — while security forces collected the names and information about those being treated.

I’ll just leave the following fact here: The generally-accepted estimate of the number of people killed during the 1978-1979 revolution that toppled the Shah puts the range in the hundreds to a high of 3,000; one scholar in Iran even says that the total number of regime opponents killed in the sixteen years between 1963 and 1979 was 3,164. That’s sixteen years, not days.

The regime’s narrative on the protests is predictable: “terrorist agents” of the U.S. and Israel brought it all about and have stoked the flames, with Mossad receiving pride of place. “Iranian security forces arrest Mossad agent operating among rioters” was a typical headline on the website of Press TV, the regime’s English-language news channel. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei refers to the protestors only as “rioters.”

The regime also claims that over one hundred members of Iran’s security forces have been killed since the protests began. Mass funerals for state-affiliated dead were held yesterday amid much fanfare, following three days of mourning.

Yesterday, the Chief Justice of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Gholamhossein Mohseni‑Ejei, indicated that fast trials and executions await those detained during the protests: “If we want to do a job, we should do it now. If we want to do something, we have to do it quickly … If it becomes late, two months, three months later, it doesn’t have the same effect.”

Photo: Reuters

The information blackout affects everything. Likely in response to exiled former Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi’s successful call to action, in which he urged Iranians to chant in unison in the streets and form their homes at 8 p.m. on Jan. 8 and 9, the regime imposed a near‑total communications shutdown, driving overall connectivity down to roughly one to three percent of normal levels and leaving the country effectively offline. Mobile and landline phone services were heavily disrupted in many areas. The government jammed GPS signals to degrade Starlink service and then moved to seize satellite dishes.

Some international calling was allowed again on Tuesday, but in essence the regime still has a complete stranglehold on information. This matters, of course. Besides the effect on people in crisis – families can’t check on loved ones, hospitals can’t communicate effectively – the blackout blocks protesters from coordinating, and the regime can effectively cover up the true extent of killings and injuries. It becomes almost impossible to verify death tolls, track arrests or document abuses for future accountability. With foreign coverage de facto blinded and local journalists gagged, massacres can unfold in the dark.

When information is impossible to come by, it becomes harder to judge who’s telling the truth. On Tuesday, it seems the “National Army of Kurdistan” claimed that it had captured the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) headquarters in Kermanshah. If true, this would be a stunning development. Kermanshah is a city of one million inhabitants, the largest in the Kurd-majority region. There’s no denying that Kurdish opposition groups have played a significant role in the protests. Significant enough to take over the IRGC HQ in Iran’s ninth-largest city?

For those not killed but arrested, the threat of the harshest punishment has been clear since the outset. Among the charges: “Enmity against God,” for which the penalties include amputation and the death penalty. It’s believed that a protester may be hanged as early as this week. Erfan Soltani, 26, was arrested only last Thursday.

It is worth noting that the internet can’t be cut off indefinitely in Iran: it plays a crucial role in the Iranian economy. For one, without the internet, there is no access to banking services or ATMs. One survey calculates that 60 percent of those consulted had “moved their business online, partly or entirely, in the … two years” before the survey. It goes on to note that “Instagram is the most used platform to earn money on the internet. On average, each of the participants earned 2,000,000 toman ($475) per month from their internet businesses.”

Incidentally, the Islamic Republic’s much-vaunted “National Information Network” (NIN), essentially a state‑run intranet, has yet to fully materialize even though it’s been in the works for over a decade.

Reuters

The Trump factor. The case of Erfan Soltani highlights one of the most intriguing aspects of what is happening in Iran: the role of President Trump in focusing attention on the regime’s treatment of demonstrators. On Tuesday, he threatened “very strong action” against Iran if its authorities follow through on threats to hang protesters.

Since the first days of unrest, the president has warned that the United States is “locked and loaded and ready to go” if Iran “violently kills peaceful protesters,” and has promised that America will “come to their rescue.” On Tuesday, he said he understood the level of killing to be “significant” and that he would respond “accordingly.”

Strikingly, he said, “Iranian Patriots, KEEP PROTESTING – TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!!… HELP IS ON ITS WAY” and “Save the names of the killers and abusers. They will pay a big price.”

Iran has said that it will strike at U.S. bases if attacked.

What are some of the options available to Trump?

• Limited air strikes on IRGC targets. The U.S. could hit Revolutionary Guard bases and Basij warehouses from bases in the region. This would probably be the easiest military option, given that no carriers are currently stationed in the area.
• Cyber attacks and enhanced online support. Offensive cyber operations against the regime’s military and civilian infrastructure, plus increased support for anti-government activists online and via Starlink.
• Tariffs, sanctions and rhetorical support. Trump has already announced 25 percent tariffs on countries trading with Iran. He could continue this path of strategic restraint.

Closer

 

“The Shah is gone.” — headline on Jan 16, 1979

Tomorrow is the forty-seventh anniversary of the day in 1979 when the Shah of Iran boarded a plane and left the country with his family, never to return. In probably the most famous and succinct headline in the history of Iranian journalism, the two most important newspapers in Iran both led with a simple “The Shah is gone.” Now we wait to say if a similar headline will greet the world in 2026.

I’ll close this week with two videos from young Iranians. They are well worth watching. Turn on your sound. The first is Persian-language female rapper lil021g, aka 021G, aka Gandom. The second video I’ll just post here without comment.