The complication in Phase Two of the Gaza plan is not reconstruction or governance. It is disarmament, and the absence of any mechanism capable of delivering it.
Washington now expects Hamas to disarm as part of the transition to technocratic rule, a demand reiterated publicly by U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff. Israeli intelligence assessments, meanwhile, conclude that Hamas, while degraded, remains armed, organized, and operational.
A European diplomat based in Washington told MBN that “the problem is not whether Hamas is weaker, it clearly is. The problem is that it is still armed enough to veto the entire process.”
Hamas has long rejected disarmament absent a clear and irreversible path to Palestinian statehood. Israel, for its part, insists it will not withdraw from Gaza so long as Hamas retains weapons—and that Israel alone will define what constitutes “real” disarmament.
“This is a mutual veto dressed up as a transition plan,” the diplomat said. “Hamas will not disarm without guarantees Israel will not give, and Israel will not withdraw without disarmament Hamas will not accept, but we expect something to be declared by President Trump in that regard while he is in Davos.”
The proposed Board of Peace and interim technocratic committee are intended to bridge that gap. Their success depends on compliance with actors with decades of reasons not to trust one another.
A Governance Experiment, Not a Handoff
Phase Two of President Donald Trump’s Gaza plan moves from ceasefire to demilitarization and reconstruction under a U.S.-designed Board of Peace. Permanent seats reportedly require a $1 billion contribution, a pay-to-play structure that marks a sharp departure from traditional post-conflict governance models.
“This is not aid,” the European diplomat said. “It is equity. And equity comes with control.”
That structure, endorsed by a UN Security Council resolution, has already drawn objections from Israel. It also signals Washington’s intent to bypass legacy multilateral institutions in favor of a narrower, capital-backed arrangement with clearer lines of authority.
“We gather that what Washington wants is speed and compliance, not consensus,” the diplomat added. “The assumption is that money will do what politics cannot. But that has many risks that I prefer not to discuss now.”
Rafah as the Test Case
The Rafah Crossing remains the immediate pressure point. Israel has delayed reopening the crossing pending the return of a final hostage. U.S. officials say Washington expects it to reopen soon under a revived model: staffed by the Palestinian Authority, monitored at a distance by Israel, and overseen indirectly by European actors.
“Rafah is the proof-of-life test for Phase Two,” the European diplomat said. “If it doesn’t open, nothing else matters. All the boards, committees, and frameworks collapse into abstraction.”
Joe Kawly
Joe Kawly is a veteran global affairs journalist with over two decades of frontline reporting across Washington, D.C. and the Middle East. A CNN Journalism Fellow and Georgetown University graduate, his work focuses on U.S. foreign policy, Arab world politics, and diplomacy. With deep regional insight and narrative clarity, Joe focuses on making complex global dynamics clear, human, and relevant.
