The United States has two tracks open on Iran right now, and only one of them ends without war. The question this week is which one closes first.
President Donald Trump issued a 10- to 15-day ultimatum to Iran at the Board of Peace meeting on Feb. 19, placing the outer edge of his stated window between March 1 and March 4. Since then, the signals from Washington have moved in the same direction.
The military buildup confirmed this week represents the largest American presence in the region since 2003. Two carrier strike groups are within striking distance of Iran. Fighter squadrons, refueling tankers and cargo aircraft have repositioned across the theater. Nonessential U.S. personnel have been quietly evacuated from Beirut. Trump chaired a Situation Room meeting on Iran strike options on Feb. 18, and the White House has not denied reports in the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times that he is leaning toward pulling the trigger.
A senior State Department official told MBN’s Washington Bureau Chief Joe Kawly that the diplomatic channel is operating under a compressed timeline. “This is not open-ended diplomacy,” the official said. “The president has asked for answers, not atmospherics.”
Congress is unlikely to block military action in the near term. Reps. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., and Thomas Massie, R-Ky., announced a bipartisan resolution Feb. 20 that would prohibit funding for any unauthorized strike against Iran. But Congress is in recess and cannot vote until lawmakers return. The debate over presidential war powers remains unresolved, and no immediate legislative action is pending.
Washington is also managing vulnerabilities it has not emphasized publicly. During last June’s direct exchange with Iran, the United States fired roughly 150 advanced interceptors, close to 25 percent of the global stockpile, in under two weeks. Defense analysts, including the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, warn that a sustained campaign against Iran could leave U.S. missile defenses in the Pacific dangerously thin at a time when Washington is also managing pressure from China. Tehran appears to understand that arithmetic, deploying low-cost drones and missiles costing tens of thousands of dollars against interceptors costing millions, betting on a war of financial attrition that it does not need to win outright to impose serious costs.
Inside Iran, pressure is running in both directions. Student protests reignited in Tehran and Mashhad on Feb. 21 and 22, the first significant campus demonstrations since January’s crackdown, which rights groups including HRANA and Amnesty International say killed thousands. The Trump administration believes the Islamic Republic is at its most brittle since 1979, calculating that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps may prioritize institutional survival over the nuclear program. Brittle, however, is not broken. Tehran’s conclusion in the coming days will shape what follows Geneva.
Three dates define the immediate window. Tuesday, Feb. 24, is the State of the Union address, where Iran-specific language could signal how Trump frames the buildup domestically. On Saturday, Feb. 28, Secretary of State Marco Rubio meets Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem, the final major diplomatic checkpoint before the strike window opens. And Iran’s written proposal, expected within two weeks of the Feb. 6 Geneva round, must arrive before March 1 to carry weight in Washington’s calculations.
Geneva remains open. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has promised a written counterproposal. A framework reportedly circulating, involving International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi, would allow Iran to maintain a narrowly defined enrichment program limited to medical isotope production while drastically reducing centrifuge capacity.
The same senior State Department official told MBN the proposal represents “a possible landing zone,” adding: “It is not zero enrichment in rhetoric, but it could be zero risk in practice.”
A Gulf diplomat following the talks told MBN that regional governments are deeply concerned about escalation. “If Geneva fails, the region pays first,” the diplomat said. “Energy routes, insurance markets, bases – everything becomes exposed.”
The carriers are in position. Interceptor stocks are finite. Congress is out of session. The strike window opens Sunday, March 1.
Geneva is the last exit. This weekend, the road narrows.
Joe Kawly
Joe Kawly is a veteran global affairs journalist with over two decades of frontline reporting across Washington, D.C. and the Middle East. A CNN Journalism Fellow and Georgetown University graduate, his work focuses on U.S. foreign policy, Arab world politics, and diplomacy. With deep regional insight and narrative clarity, Joe focuses on making complex global dynamics clear, human, and relevant.
