Muscat delivered a pause in U.S.–Iran tensions, but the margin is thin. The talks ended “for now,” a wording U.S. officials say was intentional, a signal that the channel remains open even as both sides edge toward confrontation.
A U.S. State Department official who works on Near Eastern affairs told MBN that neither side was ready to walk away. “This was about stopping momentum toward confrontation,” the official said. “There was no illusion of a deal, but there was real pressure to keep the channel open.”
The talks were the first formal contact since U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities last summer. Iran arrived insisting discussions stay limited to the nuclear file, offering narrow flexibility on enrichment levels and stockpiles in exchange for sanctions relief. Washington pushed for a broader framework tied to missiles, regional proxies, and Iran’s behavior beyond its nuclear program.
That divide proved unbridgeable in Muscat. Even so, regional actors moved quickly to prevent a collapse. A senior Gulf diplomat familiar with the discussions said Gulf states pressed the White House to keep the talks alive. “The message was simple,” the diplomat said. “If this channel shuts down, the next phase is military, and everyone pays the price.”
Both sides have signaled that the pause may be short. President Trump said another round could come “early this week,” while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said timing would be set through Omani consultations. Ali Larijani, adviser to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, is expected in Muscat to help shape what comes next, a sign the file is under tighter control in Tehran.
Israel has little faith in diplomacy. On Wednesday, February 11, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will arrive in Washington for an accelerated visit aimed at shaping the talks before any agreement takes form. Israeli officials worry that President Trump could settle for a nuclear‑only deal and then declare victory, while Iran’s missile program and regional proxy network remain untouched.
Inside the administration, the debate is unresolved. Negotiators close to Steve Witkoff are seen as more open to a narrower deal, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth are pushing for a maximalist package. Trump has sent mixed signals, praising the talks while ramping up military pressure and imposing new tariffs.
In Tehran, the regime is projecting unity. Iran’s parliament held a closed-door session attended by both Araghchi and the armed forces chief, underscoring that diplomacy and deterrence are moving in parallel. Public red lines remain unchanged: no zero enrichment, no missile talks, no discussion of regional proxies.
For now, diplomacy survives, but narrowly. “This isn’t a breakthrough,” the Gulf diplomat said. “It’s a holding pattern.”
Whether the pause leads to another round of talks or simply delays a return to force remains the central question hanging over the region.
Joe Kawly
Joe Kawly is a veteran global affairs journalist with over two decades of frontline reporting across Washington, D.C. and the Middle East. A CNN Journalism Fellow and Georgetown University graduate, his work focuses on U.S. foreign policy, Arab world politics, and diplomacy. With deep regional insight and narrative clarity, Joe focuses on making complex global dynamics clear, human, and relevant.
