The reduction in the number of U.S. troops in Syria constitutes a test of President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s government’s ability to maintain security in the country and to handle several sensitive files, foremost among them the risk of a resurgence of the Islamic State group (ISIS).
The first of these files concerns ISIS detainees held in prisons that were previously under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northeastern Syria, who have since been transferred to Iraq.
Former U.S. Special Envoy to Syria Ambassador James Jeffrey told Alhurra correspondent Houda Elboukili in an interview: “We transferred around 7,000 terrorists and members of their families to Iraq. The transfers included foreign fighters and most Iraqis, which means that those remaining in the prisons are Syrians only, and their number is much smaller.”
However, transferring these detainees to Iraq has not eliminated concerns about the group launching attacks or attempting to reorganize its ranks inside Syria.
For this reason, Jeffrey stresses that direct U.S. intervention remains a possible option despite the partial withdrawal. He said: “The air force remains ready to intervene if there are no forces on the ground. The remaining presence serves as an anchor point that allows for broad air intervention if ISIS attempts to reorganize or seize territory.”
Jeffrey does not share the concerns of those who fear an imminent security collapse in Syria. He believes that “everything is in place to keep what remains of ISIS under control,” pointing to the continued operation of the international coalition and ongoing intelligence coordination with Iraq, Damascus, and the Syrian Democratic Forces. From his perspective, the likelihood of the group returning to the level of a broad strategic threat remains limited under these arrangements.
Washington’s relationship with Ankara could also play a positive role in stabilizing Syria. According to Jeffrey, Turkey’s approval of integrating the Syrian Democratic Forces into the Syrian army, along with the declining likelihood of Kurdish-Turkish confrontation, reduces the chances of any security vacuum that ISIS cells could exploit. He also notes that “the convergence of regional interests aimed at preventing the return of Iranian influence to Syria strengthens the stability of the current arrangements.”
The way Syria’s security files are managed – particularly preventing the return of ISIS – constitutes a highly significant test for the Syrian government, one whose outcome will shape the direction of its relations with the United States and the wider international community.
The article is a translation of the original Arabic.
Houda Elboukili
Houda Elboukili, an award-winning Moroccan investigative journalist based in the United States, holds a master’s degree in journalism and Institutional Media from the Higher Institute of Information and Communication in Rabat and a bachelor’s degree in economics from Cadi Ayyad University in Marrakesh.
